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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 958 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2024

18z AVIATION UPDATE

SHORT TERM
Chances of rain showers remain through Saturday as a decaying low in the gulf continues to bring moisture into SE AK, though a drier weather pattern is in store in the future.

As of the time of writing, satellite and radar imagery indicate continued shower activity across the panhandle, driven by continued onshore flow from a low over the northern gulf. The corresponding upper level trough will begin shifting SE through the day on Saturday, slowly bringing its surface reflection with it. This will lead to diminishing chances of rain showers across the southern panhandle through the day, with some breaks in the cloud deck possible, especially later in the day and through the evening/overnight timeframe. This, along with diminishing wind speeds and an atmosphere at or nearly saturated up to the boundary level, will set up a situation conducive to the development of radiation fog across the southern half of the area Saturday night.
Chances of rain will also taper off across the northern half of the are, though not until later Saturday night.


LONG TERM
/ Sunday to Wednesday night / System exiting the panhandle Sunday so showers tapering off to chance PoP level. A short trying break will spread across the Northeast gulf coast On Sunday, and this will spread to northern portion of the gulf. PoP values for the southern half were kept at Chance level headed to Monday but, could be lower than that.

Next system starts to move across the northern gulf, late Tuesday to Thursday, depending on model solution. In coordinating with WPC Wed may be have outlook headline for heavier rains. Am watching the start of the shift in the mid range that this could pattern, may shift south of the area. For the time frame still have the rain in in midweek.
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