Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Protection, AK

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Protection, AK

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Area Discussion for - Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 282213 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 213 PM AKDT Sun May 28 2023

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday night/...Precipitation continues on this, the second half of the holiday weekend. Sorry about that.
Having transitioned from a stratiform to a convective environment, the biggest noticeable changes will be breaks in the precipitation with a brightness in the overcast between showers.
There are no well organized weather systems in the Gulf of Alaska at the moment, but numerous bands and lobes of mid level vorticity will keep the atmosphere unsettled...and that will keep precipitation in the forecast well past this short range forecast period.

Marine winds have settled down with 30 kt southwesterlies limited to a portion of the north-central Gulf. Small craft advisories remain in place for the eastern Gulf, however, due to residual high seas. Look for seas to subside to below 8 ft by Monday afternoon. Residual small craft winds on the inside are limited to Stephens Passage and, of course, Lynn Canal.

Cloud cover continues to limit daytime highs and keep overnight lows elevated. Look for lows tonight ranging from the low to mid 40s. Daytime highs tomorrow should range upper 40s to possibly the mid 50s.

In spite of the very wet weather this past week, May precipitation is shaping to be a mixed bag of above normal, near normal, and below normal across Southeast Alaska. So even though the last week of the month didn't feel like the dry season in Southeast Alaska, taken as a whole, the month was not too far off "normal".
Stay tuned for the monthly climate summaries and selected cities graphic on our web page in a week or less to satisfy your climate curiosity.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Sunday/...Rain showers diminish through the mid range with a warming trend expected towards the end of the week and into the weekend. A 500 mb low over the AK Gulf will shift west while weakening. Wednesday into Thursday another 500 low tracks southward over the Aleutians and into the Western AK Gulf. Models in better agreement on track of this low keeping it more to the south of the gulf. By the weekend this low looks to retrograde back to the northwest with an open wave trough left over the gulf, but uncertain on its final track. At the surface the gulf low keeps some shower activity over the central and southern panhandle through Thursday. If the low drops further south and west (latest GFS run) a dry trend is in store for the panhandle, but ECMWF still keeps bands moving around the low into the weekend. Models are falling into consensus on a warm air mass pushing in westward from Canada. Surface temps could rise into the 70s, especially if the GFS dry pattern occurs. Long range ensembles however move SE AK right back into a cool, wet pattern.
Gulf winds around the low in to 20 to 25 kt range with a SW swell keeping seas in the SE Gulf up. Inner channel winds will likely diminish by the end of the week due to a weak pressure gradient (especially with the GFS solution.)

Operational models were in line for the start of the long range again so used some GFS/ECMWF to get in details on the position of the surface low. Operational models really spread into the weekend.
Ensembles do have the weekend dry break but a much shorted period than GFS.



AVIATION
Lower CIG and VIS will continue through the evening Sunday with showers producing widespread MVFR and occasional IFR conditions before improving overnight into Monday as onshore flow continues from a low parked in the northern Gulf.
LLWS is not forecast with the primary front having pushed inland, though turbulence is still possible with embedded convection.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for PAPG

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Wind History from APG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Red Bay, Prince of Wales Island, Alaska

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