Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Protection, AK

SHORT TERM
/Through Thursday night/ Short range forecast features a trend toward cooler, cloudier, and damper weather especially for the north as the ridge over the gulf weakens and flattens. Currently, yesterday's front is well into Canada by this point and the next system in line is still over in the NW Gulf with the rainfall from that only making it as far as Icy Bay as of 4 am. The rest of the panhandle is a mixed bag of cloud cover with mid level clouds over the northern inner channels and outer coast while the southern panhandle is mostly clear to partly cloudy. A southerly push of higher winds did make it into the Lynn Canal and Skagway area overnight bringing S winds up to 15 to 25 kt early this morning.

The northern panhandle is going to continue its trend of becoming cloudier and damper over the next few days as a few new systems move in from the W. Yakutat will see the impacts first with rain developing this morning and continuing for most of the day. They will then see a break in the rainfall Wed night before then next system starts to move in Thursday. The rest of the northern panhandle north of Frederick Sound will begin to see some precipitation move in Wed night, may see somewhat of a break Thursday, and then get a reinforcing shot of rainfall Thursday evening. Winds will also be increasing for the northern inner channels especially toward Thursday afternoon as southerly pressure gradients reach a maximum at that time. Lynn Canal and Skagway could see S winds of 20 to 30 kt as a result Thursday afternoon and evening.

The southern panhandle by contrast will see at least one more day of at most partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures. However, those high temperatures are not expected to be as warm as yesterday as the low level atmosphere is slowly being modified to a cooler and moister marine nature rather then a drier and warmer continental nature that is has had over the last week. Widespread 70s are still expected, but more in the low to mid 70s range. By Thursday, more clouds are expected to fill in over the area with the low level air mass continuing to trend more toward a marine environment. High Temps by Thursday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Thursday night sees rainfall starting to move into the area as the next system spreads far enough south to effect the area.

LONG TERM
/Friday through Monday/...A front moving eastward into the panhandle will continue to spread inland into the southern panhandle through Friday morning. Rain will start to taper off from north to south through Friday and into Saturday, though continued onshore flow will keep the potential for showers elevated through the weekend. Rainfall rates may be heavier with the initial onset of the front, with the indication for a plume of moisture being directed into the central and southern panhandle.
Behind the initial front, light rainfall rates should take hold for the rest of the period, though more developed showers may bring periods of heavier rainfall and gusty winds as they blow over.

Winds will increase for parts of the N/S facing inner channels with the front, though expecting speeds to remain around 15 to 20 mph and decrease into the weekend. The strongest speeds are expected through Northern Lynn Canal and into Taiya Inlet, which may be accentuated by any light sea breezing through the afternoon. These winds have been increased to 30 to 35 mph through Thursday, but should decrease down to 20 to 25 mph and continue to drop through the weekend. As the low dips south through the weekend, winds in the northern panhandle may turn offshore Sunday night.

As this low dips southward through the weekend, easterly flow indicates potential for Thunderstorms in BC to attempt to make it over the Coastal Range and into the panhandle. While it is still too far out to decide if this will be a strong enough pattern, this will continue to be looked at through the week. High temperatures will be capped around the low to mid 60s with the increased cloud cover and active weather in the forecast.

AVIATION
Locations across the panhandle are VFR this morning with CIGs mainly clear to scattered, with a few broken CIGs around 3,500ft. PAYA is the exception as there is a front extending down from a low pressure system over interior Alaska, bringing rain and mist. This is expected to persist through the period, bringing CIGs down below 1,000ft and VISs as low as 1 to 2 SM. Otherwise, conditions across the panhandle are expected to remain VFR with gusty conditions likely in PAGY and PAKT. Currently, rain is not expected through the period, with rain chances looking to increase around 12Z Thursday. However, if the incoming front moves more quickly, rain could be seen beginning in the northern panhandle before 12Z Thursday.

MARINE
Outer Waters: NW winds shift to the west as the high pressure ridge in the gulf is flattened due to a low pressure system moving across interior Alaska. Winds are expected to remain elevated, as high as 20kts and up to 25kts in southern coastal waters. Winds in the gulf look to decrease slightly on Thursday as the pattern shifts and a low pressure center spins up in the northern gulf off the Aleutians. As this low pressure center moves through the gulf, winds are expected to diminish and become more variable in direction through the day Friday.

Inner Waters: The next two days across the inner channels are expected to be quite breezy, with winds peaking Thursday evening before the pressure gradient becomes less favorable for strong winds on Friday. A strong southerly breeze is expected in Lynn Canal over the next two days. Winds are forecasted to remain at small craft level (24kts), but could be less than that Wednesday overnight into Thursday as the pressure gradient lets up slightly.
Winds are expected to peak in Lynn Canal Thursday evening, as high as 30kts sustained with seas of up to 5ft. Cross Sound and Icy Strait are expected to have a strong westerly wind as high as 20kts Wednesday and Thursday and northerly winds are expected to persist in Clarence Strait thought Thursday morning. The pressure gradient is also expected to bring elevated southerly winds in Stephen's Passage on Friday, around 15kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-036-641>644-652-661>664-671- 672.