Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Protection, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A low in the Gulf will keep rain showers across the panhandle through tonight. Drier trend expected for Friday going into the weekends.

- Clearing skies and cooling trend to start out the weekend, with overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 30s, and the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM
Showers continue to move across the area this morning with some showers occasionally producing heavy rain. The shower coverage is expected to continue to trend down today as the low pressure in the gulf weakens. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to build in the Interior today helping to lead to a pattern change for the area. Winds are expected to switch to the north starting today for the northern panhandle and tomorrow for the central and southern panhandle. Along with the wind shifts, temperatures are expected to cool during the overnight hours with clearing skies.
Temperatures look to drop into the mid to low 30s for the weekend as offshore flow develops. With the clearing skies but decreasing amount of daylight, currently think high temperatures will be able to get into the 40s to 50s across the panhandle. By Saturday, precip chances for the panhandle will be near 0 and we are looking at mostly clear conditions for cloud cover. By Sunday, the pressure gradient looks to be oriented along the Coast Mountains.
With this orientation, east/west oriented channels should be more favored for seeing increased winds. While the pressure gradient orientation is more favorable for the development of Taku winds in the Juneau area; forecast guidance currently is not looking favorable for any downslope wind development with cross barrier flow, a critical layer, and a temperature inversion struggling to line up at the same time.

LONG TERM
/Saturday through Monday/...
Drier weather is expected into the weekend as offshore flow will become predominate Saturday into Sunday with high pressure beginning to build over the gulf. Late Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system will quickly move south of the panhandle. This, along with high pressure over the Yukon, will increase the pressure gradient which in turn will increase wind speeds.
Strongest wind speeds will most likely be across the northern inner channels, including Taku Inlet, with northerly winds around 20 kts possible. The low pressure system to the south still looks to be on the weaker side which could prevent winds getting any stronger. Because of this weak outflow, low overnight temperatures will continue to drop. This will bring low temperatures into the 30s with the northern panhandle, becoming more likely to see lows in the mid to high 20s overnight. At the end of the weekend, a weak short wave will slightly increase precipitation chances over the northern gulf coast. Any precipitation amounts will remain on the lighter side with little to no forecasted accumulation amounts.

AVIATION
/through Friday morning/ Mixed bag of MVFR to VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this morning with ceilings around 2000-5000ft and visbys 4 to 6SM within showers. Pesky low in the Gulf continues to weaken and diminish through the day as it traverses southward in the Gulf, sending waves of showers across the panhandle. Similar flight conditions to yesterday, predominant VFR to MVFR prevails with ceilings 2000 to 5000ft, occasional IFR visibilities as low as 2SM within any passing heavier shower, however expected to be brief.
Precip will gradually come to an end from north to south after 06z this evening as low moves into the N Pacific and a shift to general offshore pattern into Friday. During that transition period Friday morning, with remnant saturated low levels and expected calm winds overnight, could see patchy dense fog development, likeliest across the southern panhandle terminals, albeit forecast confidence too low to include at this time.

Winds remains largely 10 kt or less this morning, expecting this trend to continue through Thursday with an occasional gust to 20 kt. No major LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the gulf continue to be around 15 to 20 kt this morning as a low persists in the northern gulf bringing showers to the gulf and coastal waters. This low is expected to weaken before shifting to the south and west while high pressure builds over the Interior. As the high pressure strengthens, a new low is expected to pass to the south of the area which will help to increase the pressure gradient. With this increase, offshore winds are expected to increase and gaps in terrain are expected to develop stronger winds. Current thinking is most gaps could see 20 kt sustained winds but there is the potential for stronger winds.
Wave heights for the outside waters are expected to diminish with the low weakening and moving away and should get down to below 8 ft by tomorrow for most of the coastal waters.

Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions this morning continue to be fairly quiet for most locations with only a few spots reporting increased wind speeds. Winds remain around 10 kt with the exception of a few places sitting around 20 kt for Eldred Rock and Taku Inlet.
Through today, winds will continue to remain on the light side before we see winds for the northern Inner Channels start to switch to the north as the low in the gulf remains but high pressure builds over the Interior. This will help to push winds to switch from the south to north during the day today in the northern panhandle while the central and southern panhandle are expected to switch tomorrow.
Going into the weekend, offshore flow is expected to increase as high pressure strengthens and a strong low passes to the south of the area leading to increased outflow winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671.