Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Protection, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Tuesday/...Higher pressure over the eastern gulf and associated marine layer clouds are the primary points of interest for this Sunday across southeast Alaska. A bit of clearing is visible in satellite imagery over the southern panhandle just downstream of the ridge axis this afternoon, but this will gradually fill in as the ridge moves eastward tonight into Monday. Overall the marine layer is expected to rebuild over much of the inner channels tonight with more patchy fog likely for Monday morning. An approaching front will bring mainly light rain to the northern panhandle and outer coast Monday, with totals of up to 1 inch expected for the northern gulf coast over 24 hours, and lesser amounts for the northern inner channels. This first front is expected to basically stall over the northern gulf coast bringing light rain through the period as the parent low decays heading into Cook Inlet.

No break is expected however before a stronger front with a more potent surge of moisture follows up on Tuesday, bringing moderate to heavy rain to a majority of the panhandle from Tuesday morning into Wednesday, spreading from the northeast coast and southward through the panhandle through the day. With the fairly transient nature of the heavier rain and antecedent soil and river conditions across the area, there are currently no flooding concerns. However, rapid rises in some area streams and rivers are possible. As of this forecast, 24 hour totals for this second round of heavier rain have trended slightly higher ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in steep terrain and southwest facing slopes.

Some increased southerly winds are expected with the first weaker frontal passage Monday. The strongest winds are expected in the northern gulf out of the east from a coastal jet reaching between 25 and 30 kt east of Kayak Island beginning Monday morning. Stronger southerly winds are then expected along the inner channels with the follow up front Tuesday, particularly for the central and northern inner channels. For more on the expected conditions on the water, see the marine discussion below.


LONG TERM
/ Wednesday through Sunday / The weather front continues to continues to move east-Southeast then into the Canadian coastal waters Wednesday morning. Onshore flow will have showers, but there will be improving conditions Thursday as a ridge builds and brings a couple day break in the weather to weekend. Temperatures for a fair portion of the area warming to the 60s and possibly to near 70 degrees.

As the weekend progresses the ridge flattens headed to Sunday, and may see some weather start possible sweep into the zonal flow beginning to set up but has not yet reached the panhandle.

AVIATION
Conditions this evening are very much location dependent as a front is starting to work towards the Yakutat area while the southern panhandle continues to see the marine layer still lingering. With the front continuing towards the rest of the panhandle for tomorrow, MVFR conditions are expected to become more widespread for areas not already seeing lowered ceilings. These conditions are expected to spread from north to south with the southern panhandle potentially not seeing effects from the front till the very end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Outer waters: Generally similar forecast for the outside waters as inherited, with some tightening timeframe and locations of highest wind speed. The first front expected later tonight, is currently should on satellite over the central gulf, transitioning our northwesterlies to southeasterlies as it progresses eastward.
Expecting to see some minor barrier jet formation east of Cape St. Elias of around 25 knots, but certainly a far cry from normal for this time of year, with 20 knot winds elsewhere and up to 8 ft seas.

Tuesday sees the stronger system move into the gulf, with widespread fresh breezes to near gales in the gulf waters up to 11 ft. Not expecting much of a wind shift with this system, with primarily southerly winds turning southwesterly through Tuesday evening.

Inside Waters: A majority of changes to the ongoing forecast is the expansion of higher wind speeds in southeast facing channels, such as Chatham, Lynn, portions of Icy Strait, Stephens, and portions of Frederick Sound. Set at least 25 knots extending down the northern portion of Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage, although guidance is trending towards these higher wind speeds to continue to be expanded southward. Continued the gale for northern Lynn Canal, with signs that it could be extended down to the entirety of Lynn Canal, though, kept this at near gales for now.
Western Icy Strait do look to shift southwesterly Tuesday afternoon into evening at 25 knots, increasing from 15 knots earlier in the morning.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.