Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Petersburg, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 221325 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 525 AM AKDT Tue Apr 22 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Wednesday Night/...A weather system that brought rain to the Panhandle-mainly across the northern two- thirds-starting Monday evening and overnight will begin to ease later on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a new low-pressure system is forming over the Gulf of Alaska and will push a front into the northeastern Gulf and northern Panhandle. On Wednesday, the heaviest rainfall is expected in the northern Panhandle. Rainfall during the day is forecasted to range from a quarter to two-thirds of an inch, with similar but slightly lower amounts expected overnight. While flooding isn't a concern, these amounts are a bit above average for April, which is typically one of Southeast Alaska's drier months. Remnants of the low will linger in the Gulf, bringing continued showers Wednesday night into early Thursday.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Monday/...For the late week and weekend dealing with the uncertainty of where the Wednesday Gulf low will track. There have been two main tracks depicted by operational models and the ensembles. One keeps the low in the NE gulf, stronger and longer, thus continuing Eastern Gulf winds and Panhandle shower activity well into Friday and possibly Saturday. The other track drops the low to the SE along the panhandle coast, with a faster drying trend for the northern regions and SE Gulf winds staying up.
For the morning operational models more lined up with the northerly track (ECMWF. NAM, Canadian), with GFS dropping to the south, but keeping the low intact will into Saturday. Run to run consistency with these models isn't helping and ensembles while not as diverse still are not exactly lined up. Keeping with a mostly cloudy chance of rain forecast with this uncertainty, for now. For the weekend a wide range of solutions for upstream features. Another surface low and associated front is expected in the western gulf and impacting SE AK Monday into Tuesday. If the low center remains further west it will be keep precip for the region but would not anticipate much in the way of elevated winds. Low forecast confidence is still the word, so expect details to change as hopefully a steadier trend develops.
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