Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Petersburg, AK

SHORT TERM
The main changes made to the short term today were to narrow down the timing and impacts of the two upcoming systems. The first system is a low-end gale force front moving into the panhandle tonight, bringing elevated wind speed and strong gale force gusts with isolated areas of storm force gusts to the outer coast and along the inner channels of the panhandle.
Wind Advisories have been issued for multiple communities across the panhandle overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.
After this system moves through, another even stronger system jumps up into the southern gulf Wednesday night. This system starts off as a hurricane force low in the gulf, with the strongest swath of winds in the south central gulf and bringing a large area of increased wave heights up to 40 ft offshore in the deeper waters of the southeastern gulf. The strongest winds will decrease before the front reaches the southern panhandle, but will stay storm force as the low moves into the southeastern gulf and sends a front northeast up through the panhandle. As the front moves through, multiple communities have the chance of seeing high wind criteria, so high wind watches have been issued Wednesday night into Thursday. Both of these systems are expected to bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, but we are expecting more accumulations with the second system between 1 to 2 inches of rain. The upper elevations of the Klondike and Haines Highways will be cold enough to see warning levels of snow, between 10 to 12 inches over 24 hours on Thursday. Winds look to quickly calm down behind these systems.

LONG TERM
Active weather continues for the panhandle as we see a low remaining in the Northern Pacific that continues to send waves into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow for the continued wet and breezy weather to continue for the end of the week and into the weekend.
With the colder air in the Yukon and the low remaining away from the coast, we expect the cooler air to move in which will also bring a return to the potential for snow. With this return of snow for the weekend, accumulations don't look to be too significant at this time but higher elevations could see more accumulations.

Headed through the weekend and into next week, it looks like we finally start to see the pattern change with high pressure starting to build over the Yukon and the pressure gradient between Juneau and Whitehorse tightens. This will start to increase the winds flowing through the terrain leading to increased outflow winds. One thing that will need to be watched will be the potential for outflow. CPC outlooks for 6-10 day and 8-14 day show a significant below normal chance for temperatures and below normal precipitation for 6-10 days and near normal for 8-14 days.

AVIATION
VFR to MVFR conditions continue this afternoon across the panhandle. A break in the clouds is moving across the panhandle currently which is allowing for VIS and CIGs to increase temporarily but this break is expected to be short lived as the main frontal band is moving closer to the coast and already impacting the Yakutat area. With this frontal band moving in, CIGs and VIS are expected to drop to MVFR or potentially IFR. The other thing is that the LLWS is expected to increase as this front moves across the area. Another concern with this front will be the increased potential for turbulence. Pireps this afternoon have been showing lots of turbulence at cruising altitude. AAWU forecasts this afternoon expect this to continue tonight as well as the potential for icing which is being reported as well in Pireps.

MARINE
A storm force low will impact our coast Thursday. Mariners along the coast should make ready for southwesterly storm force winds, with gusts to hurricane force, and large southwesterly seas Wednesday night into Thursday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Tuesday morning wind and seas are in a relative benign state, with all buoys reporting south southwest winds less than 25 knots and seas less than 7 ft. Wave energy was out of the southwest, with a variety of wave systems present; dominant period is generally 6 to 9 seconds with wave heights near 5 ft. Expect conditions to deteriorate tonight as a near gale force low forms near the Kenai driving an occluding front to our coast. Winds will become more southeast generating southeast fresh seas masking underlying westerly ground swell, bringing a confused sea state and significant heights of 12 to 15 ft by Wednesday morning. Seas remain above 10 ft as winds decrease Wednesday afternoon but the break will be short lived. We have increasing confidence in a storm force low in the central gulf by Wednesday night, with gusts to hurricane force, driving 35 to 40 ft significant wave heights.
These conditions will reach peak intensity Thursday. Wind and seas begin to diminish by early Friday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds continue to increase out of the south as a near-gale force low moves into the Gulf. Highest sustained winds of gale force will be confined to Lynn Canal and southern Clarence Strait, with near gale force conditions for major north to south facing channels. Winds subside briefly Wednesday afternoon before a storm force low moves into the coast, bringing gale to strong gale force conditions to many passages. This storm force low will generate southwesterly seas of 35 to 40 ft along our coast, with this southwesterly wave energy able to penetrate further into Cross Sound, Chatham, and Sumner ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for AKZ318-319.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ319.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ322-323.
High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for AKZ322-323-327-328-330-332.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328.
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-033-036-651-652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-034-035-053-641>644- 661>664-671-672.