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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 507 Pm Akst Fri Dec 1 2023
updated
.small craft advisory tonight...
Rest of tonight..E wind 25 kt becoming ne 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Seas except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain in the morning.
Sat night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sun night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 012359 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 259 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2023

SHORT TERM
/through Sunday/...A parade of lows are in the short term forecast for the Gulf of Alaska and the panhandle.

For starters, quick moving low is tracking north near Haida Gwaii this afternoon. This low will keep moving north over Prince of Wales Island tonight. Strong wind gusts and moderate to heavy rain are possible with this low. Isolated thunder can't be ruled out as well.

The larger low currently in the gulf will track southeast towards Haida Gwaii through Saturday. This will keep precip in the forecast for the central and southern panhandle. Northerly winds could actually dry out the north, giving some sunnier skies and an a break in the weather.

The third low, of the parade of lows, will move into the gulf on Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring gale force (35 knots)
to the gulf with 15 to 25 knots in the inner channels. Rain and snow is also looking likely with this low, with most of the snow expected in the far northern panhandle.


LONG TERM
/Sunday night through Friday/...We will see a brief break across the area for the end of Sunday before the unsettled pattern returns to SE AK. The next front starts to move into the southern panhandle Monday morning. Deterministic guidance continues to show this front bringing gale force winds to the area. GFS guidance wants to bring in storm force winds with this front but remains the only model at the time of writing with that solution. Some areas across the northern panhandle are likely to see more of a rain/snow mix or straight snow, especially places like Lynn canal and Juneau for a period of time. The snow will switch to more rain though as the warmer air surges northward through the inner channels. For accumulating snow, the best places to see accumulating snow is likely going to be for the N Lynn Canal areas. There is the possibility that advisory level snow amounts could be achieved from this system. The biggest question though is how fast does the warm air surge north up Lynn canal and limit accumulations. This will be the main thing to watch for with regards to snow accumulations for the start of next week.

Behind this front, the low remains parked over the far northern edge of the gulf allowing for more onshore flow to continue for the middle to end of the week. This onshore flow will bring an unsettled pattern to the area.

AVIATION
Complex low with multiple centers in the gulf spins a band of showers into the southern panhandle with a small but localized low to impact over Prince of Wales and perhaps for Southern Inner Channels area. VFR conditions for the northern panhandle precip tapers off and ceilings lift. Could potentially be patch fog, however, not in TAFs for tonight. Southern panhandle will keep the better chance of rain into Saturday. Localized wind shear for the Klawock and Ketchikan area tonight into Saturday morning.

MARINE
Main concern for marine impacts tonight is the short wave low tracking north into the southern panhandle this evening.
Early evidence is, as this low moves north, winds gusts around 30 to 40 knots are possible. And as the low spins over Prince of Wales Island, this will cause big swings in wind direction from the E/SE on the front side of the low to the W/SW on the back side.

The other concern is the gale force low that will move in Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring 15 to 25 knots to the inner channels and up to 30 to 40 knots to the gulf.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ664-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>663- 672.

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