Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point Baker, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 191313 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 513 AM AKDT Sun Apr 19 2026

SHORT TERM

The weak frontal system associated with a shortwave trough impacting the panhandle continues to move over the panhandle and exit into British Columbia. Light, occasional rain with mostly weak winds outside of Lynn Canal is leading to patchy fog, mist, and low clouds. As modest ridging builds behind the shortwave, looking to see at least some brief drier weather ahead of the next round of rain. Given the moist conditions and ridging aloft, fog concerns continue throughout the morning, with dense fog around the Yakutat area at time of writing. Expecting to see this fog lift to a low cloud deck by the morning hours, coinciding with the next frontal band and surface southwesterlies.

The next band looks to be born out of the triple point of a stronger Bering System. While rain is not much of a concern, with mostly light rain, stronger winds in Lynn Canal and Skagway remain a concern going into Sunday. As the front traverses eastward, surface divergence looks to continue to build pressure in the southern half of the panhandle. This, combined with lee troughing, looks to create substantial pressure gradient flow in Lynn Canal, and parts of Icy Strait/Cross Sound as the energy moves over. A wind advisory has been issued for the Skagway area, for wind gusts up to 45 mph.

Lowest confidence in this forecast is both in precise timing of rain ending and the extent of fog development with consistent low level moisture.

LONG TERM

/Monday through the week/ A ridge pushes into the Gulf of Alaska late Sunday into early Monday. This ridge is likely to lower precipitation chances across the area with the exception of the far north where onshore flow will continue. Even with continued showers into the start of the week, precipitation totals remain on the lower side for Monday. For the northern gulf coast, near Yakutat, 24 hour QPF is most likely to be around 0.5 to 0.6 inches. Depending on the exact location of the ridge, this area has a 20% to 30% chance of seeing around 0.8 inches in 24 hours.
Precipitation amounts greatly decrease as you move farther south with areas from Cape Fairweather to north of Frederick Sound seeing 24 hour rain amounts around 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Upper elevation areas, especially over the northern panhandle could still see snow during the overnight hours.

As we get into mid week, precipitation chances decrease even more with only a few areas of light to moderate showers possible.
Looking at temperatures, again the far northern portions of the area could see low overnight temperatures to around freezing allowing for periods of snow or a wintry mix overnight. Otherwise, as we get further into the week, daily high temperatures will be around normal with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. There is a chance that the far southern panhandle could see even higher temperatures into the mid to upper 50s depending on if the ridge allows for drier conditions, and in turn less cloud cover. The next organized system moves into the area late next week once again bringing widespread precipitation. We will continue to monitor this late week system due to the model spread on when this system reaches SE AK.
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