Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point Baker, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 230521 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 921 PM AKDT Tue Apr 22 2025

New 06Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
/Through Wednesday night/ The showery remain of an old trough feature is spreading some light precipitation over the panhandle. The next low moving into the western half of the gulf will be rotating its front into the panhandle Wednesday. Have adjusted the timing a few hours slower for the winds and 'heavier' precipitation. Heavier is a relative term rainfall totals may get up to around an 1 or so for 24 hours.
Locally gusty winds 20 to 30 mph Wednesday as the front approaches and makes land fall into the panhandle.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Tuesday/...
Models have fallen in line with the eventual track of the Wednesday Gulf low. At this time the low is expected to remain on a track towards the NE gulf, continuing Eastern Gulf winds and Panhandle shower activity Thursday into Friday. After the initial front crosses over, there will be a brief break in precip before the parent low moves in with another round of precip and 20 to 25 kt winds over the gulf. More moderate rainfall as the low brings in a long fetch of moisture from the south. showers will diminish into the evening Friday as the low center moves inland and weakens. For the weekend thew GFS is putting a closed low in the SE Gulf while other operational models keep an open wave trough.
Ensembles trend towards the open wave trough solution. From there operational models diverge. Another surface low and associated front is expected in the western gulf and impacting SE AK late Monday into Tuesday. If the low center remains further west it will be keep precip for the region but would not anticipate much in the way of elevated winds.
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