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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 634 Am Akst Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..S wind 15 kt becoming se 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers early in the morning, then rain and snow.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
Sat night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 081455 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 555 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2023

SHORT TERM
/Through Saturday/...For today, a cool front approaching from the west will bring a chance of mixed precipitation to the Panhandle with primarily snow with amounts just shy of advisory levels expected at higher elevations along the Klondike Highway and out the road away from Lynn Canal along the Haines Highway. Warm air advection out ahead of this front will keep the lower levels of the atmosphere warm enough for even less than advisory(4+ inches in 12-hours) accumulations elsewhere.
Behind the front, lower-level northerly winds will advect cooler air over the Panhandle this evening. A chance for post-frontal thunderstorms is possible behind the front into the day today for the northern and central Outer Coast areas as CAPE values look to be high enough for that.

For late tonight through Saturday, a storm-force low looks to approach from the south, moving into the southeastern Gulf and continuing to move NNE over southern Baranof and Admiralty Islands and over the central Inner Channels where it will completely weaken, being absorbed into the overall synoptic flow Saturday night. This system is expected to bring a relatively quick but heavy dump of rainfall to the southern Panhandle along and just ahead of the front as it moves through. A pretty abrupt wind shift looks to occur as the low passes by the southern third to half of the Panhandle. Winds look like they may gust up to between 40 and 60 mph over the southern third of the Panhandle late tonight through Saturday. Therefore, a High Wind Watch is in effect for that timeframe for that area.

There continues to be considerable model disagreement on the exact track of Saturday's system with the GFS and NAM tracking it over the central Inner Channels with the ECMWF and CMC tracking it over the southern quarter of the Panhandle. Therefore, forecast confidence remains average to below average through the period.
Recommended useful information is also available in the Special Weather Statement and the Marine section, below.

LONG TERM
/Sunday through Friday/...Continuing from the short term, model guidance has been trending towards an active pattern to set up by the start of next week with overall ridging over the panhandle into British Columbia and troughing over the Alaska Peninsula and NW gulf. The strength of this ridge building in Sunday will determine the amount of clearing (from south to north)
and drying possible over the panhandle and could influence the timing of the return of precipitation on Monday.

For early next week, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop with the above mentioned synoptic setup, leading to widespread gale force winds throughout the gulf with a front sweeping across and north into the panhandle sometime on Monday.
This feature will also bring with it enhanced rain and aim a plume of moisture towards the panhandle with periods of moderate to heavy rain likely over multiple days. Model guidance is trending towards the northern panhandle and gulf coast seeing the first surge of moisture at the onset, before a secondary stronger surge impacts the central and southern panhandle sometime Tuesday into early Wednesday. 12 hour rainfall totals for this secondary surge are showing the potential to exceed 10 and in some cases 25 year return intervals. This would likely lead to river rises in the wake of the Saturday storm, especially in the southern panhandle.

While the main focus of this event is currently the widespread heavy rain potential, strong winds also are likely to develop in the gulf and along the coastal waters and potentially reach further inland at higher elevations. With the ridge in the interior and the low spinning over the northwest gulf, a tight gradient will likely set up and persist over the southern panhandle during this timeframe as well, leading to strong gale force southerly winds pushing up from Hecate Strait up into Clarence Strait with the potential to reach storm force. Therefore strong winds would also be expected for southern Prince of Wales as well as Annette Island and Ketchikan for this time period. Stay tuned for further updates to this evolving situation as we head into the weekend.

Into the latter half of the week, active weather is expected to continue with yet another front possible late Wed into Thu. There is also some indications that some lows could spin up along that front into Fri, though confidence is poor on that aspect. What is more confident is continued wet weather through the end of the week at least.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Saturday/...A cold front located over the eastern gulf will continue to march east through the morning bringing snow to the north and some rain showers south of Admiralty. Expect borderline MVFR/IFR ceilings over the north, with IFR from SN at times, and MVFR to VFR in the south. Have added isolated thunderstorms for the coast as this front moves ashore. LLWS concerns ramp up by Saturday morning as our next big storm moves into the area.

MARINE
A cool frontal feature with its associated tightened pressure gradient will generate 25-30 knot winds extending southward from the northern Gulf and moving eastward through today. Winds in the northern to central Inner Channels will begin to react very early today, with northern Lynn Canal increasing from sustained 20 knot winds to 30 knots by late Friday morning.
The bulk of the higher winds will then drift southeastward and be replaced with 10 to 15 knot winds through Friday evening.

Late tonight through Saturday sees a developing storm-force low move up from the south into the southeastern Gulf. This low looks to track northward, generating near Gale force easterly winds in Sumner Strait, southern Chatham Strait, and western Fredrick Sound, then dive eastward near the southern tip of Baranof Island.
The frontal band will generate storm force winds around the Dixon Entrance and the southern part near the ocean entrance of Clarence Strait. High/rough seas are expected as this system moves northward. As the low moves in, it quickly weakens in intensity and moves northeastward over the central Inner Channels.
Winds will quickly/abruptly shift from easterly and southeasterly to westerly before diminishing. Useful recommended information is also available in the Special Weather Statement.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for AKZ328>330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-643-644-651- 652-663-664-671-672.

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Beck Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:01 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:13 AM AKST     4.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:13 AM AKST     12.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:17 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:11 PM AKST     2.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:05 PM AKST     10.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Beck Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Monte Carlo Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:45 AM AKST     4.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:07 AM AKST     11.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:18 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:17 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 03:43 PM AKST     2.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:59 PM AKST     9.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Monte Carlo Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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