.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure sits over the Bering currently and will persist through the start of the weekend. This is good news for Southwest Alaska as it will keep any storm systems west and south of mainland Alaska through Saturday. Instead, weak northerly flow across Southwest Alaska is forecast to promote dry yet cool conditions, with overnight low temperatures dipping into the low to mid 30s the next few nights.

Meanwhile, another round of unsettled conditions is forecast for the Aleutians as a pair of lows dig across the island chain tonight and again tomorrow night through Sunday morning. The first low will be accompanied by small craft to gale force winds across the western Bering. Adak and Atka will likely experience showery conditions with gusts to gale force during the morning hours on Friday. The presence of high pressure over the eastern Bering will confine the strongest winds west of the Pribilof Islands.

Immediately following Friday's Western Aleutian system the next upper low is forecast to swing into the Aleutians on Saturday, helping to establish an even broader area of elevated winds.
Widespread small craft winds across the Bering can be expected late Saturday into early Sunday. The consolidation of the two systems into a surface low somewhere over the AKPEN will support a belt of easterly gales beginning from Bristol Bay and bending southward through the Eastern Aleutians. Which should equate to gusty conditions from Cold Bay to Unalaska. Gusts to storm force will also be possible within the belt of higher winds, primarily north of the Alaska Peninsula.

BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Long wave low pressure system will dominate the early extended outlook over most of the state and Gulf of Alaska. Models are in good agreement with the upper level low remaining over the northern part of the State with with associated surface features impacting much of the Alaskan Peninsula and Gulf region. The GFS and Canadian models move the axis of the upper level long wave and most of its energy farther south and east than the European, favoring the GFS/Canadian solutions. Conversely, the GFS and Canadian models better handle the shortwave features, south of the Aleutians and Alaskan Peninsula with the Canadian being more aggressive with eastward speed and intensity.

Locally heavy precipitation will spread from the Central Aleutians, over the Alaskan Peninsula and Kodiak Island and across the Gulf through Tuesday. Moderate rain will occur over the Southcentral coast, with lesser amounts moving inland. The associated surface features also bring near gale force winds with gale force gusts over the Southern Bering, diminishing on Wednesday. Widespread gale force winds extend along the Pacific side of the Aleutians and AKPEN through the end of the outlook period. Ridging high pressure over the Bearing, coupled with the fast moving shortwaves could bring marginal gale force winds and to the central islands and Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and Thursday.

-DD



AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Friday with increasing clouds and a chance of an isolated rain shower by late tonight into early Friday morning. There is high confidence that the upper level shortwave moving through Southcentral will bring showers over the mountains Friday afternoon, but should stay contained to the mountains. VFR conditions should prevail at PANC.

-TK