Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Old Harbor, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

This afternoon, the main weather story is a shield of rain continuing to overspread the Southwest, with temperatures just cold enough for Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim coast to support a rain/snow mix or all snow. Warm air advection continues to spill into the region with this first wave, including the Eastern Aleutians and AK Pen, where both areas have had temperatures surpass 40F today. Cold Bay has been persistent in being quite gusty throughout the afternoon, and St. Paul has seen reduced visibility and cloud ceilings with fog and mist.

As St. Paul improves this evening, areas of fog are possible for Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim coast tonight into Monday morning. Elsewhere, a broad Bering complex low with its associated trough draped eastward across the Bering finally begins to gain some momentum and moves eastward through the day Monday. A shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the low on Monday brings elevated winds back to Cold Bay and another wave of precipitation to Southwest Alaska, as the center of the low itself nears Nunivak Island. Again, temperatures are marginal for this area, but could support some additional snowfall while the Bristol Bay coast and the inland Southwest temperatures stay relatively mild with rain.

However, as the low swings through the area Tuesday, colder air aloft attempts to wrap in with a northwesterly wind for the Bering, Central, and Eastern Aleutians. Shortly thereafter, a transient ridge slides across the region out ahead of yet another gale force frontal system arriving to the Western Aleutians by Wednesday morning.

-AM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A very broad upper level weather pattern with several low centers and a number of differently oriented troughs extends across the region. Divergence aloft continues as the pattern weakens and becomes more zonal through the forecast period. Most of the active weather will be occurring across the Southern portions of the state into the weekend. A weak upper ridge builds over the weekend across Southeast Alaska and Western Canada. A loosely organized mix of ECMWF / GFS / UKMET and Canadian models carry the main features quite well, although the GFS hold onto a track to the South of the other models along the same axis of movement.

A decaying surface low in the Southeastern Gulf of Alaska slips further South, but leaves a weakening front wrapped along the North Gulf Coast from Kodiak Island to the Canadian border.
Locally moderate rain remains over the coastal zones through Thursday. A Western Bering surface low extends a front into the North Pacific and slips Eastward with snow along its Northern edges, and rain elsewhere through the weekend. Areas of freezing rain are expected South of Nunivak Island through Saturday. A developing North Pacific low picks up the frontal weather and pushes it over the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island late Saturday into Sunday. Scattered showers are expected across the Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral Alaska Sunday. A well developed low and front approach the Western Aleutians and Bering for Sunday with another round of rain expected.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...Southeast winds gusting to 20 to 30 knots from Turnagain Arm over the terminal this afternoon are expected diminish around midnight. VFR conditions will last through the rest of today with increasing clouds late this afternoon and evening. Rain becomes more likely after midnight and ceilings look to drop into MVFR around 16Z Monday. While weather and ceilings will improve by Monday afternoon, the Turnagain Arm winds will return with gusts 20 to 30 knots.