Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sitka and, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday April 4, 2020 4:54 PM AKDT (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:48PMMoonset 4:55AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ032 Northern Chatham Strait- 251 Pm Akdt Sat Apr 4 2020
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..S wind 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sitka and , AK
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location: 57.04, -135.39     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 050051 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Juneau AK 451 PM AKDT Sat Apr 4 2020

SHORT TERM. /Saturday evening through Monday/ The upper ridge over the gulf responsible for the dry weather Saturday will shift eastward on Sunday. Tranquil weather is expected to continue for most of the day tomorrow; however a pattern change begins to take shape Sunday evening. As the ridge flattens through the day tomorrow, a strong 100+ kt jet streak will approach the Panhandle from the west. At the surface, a low will develop over the far northern gulf and switch flow around from the west. Strong PVA aloft and onshore flow at all levels of the atmosphere will cause showers to develop Sunday evening across the northern Panhandle and persist through the short term period. Shower activity will spread southward Sunday night however the bulk of the showers are expected to be along the outer coast and across the northern portion of the region.

Aloft, much colder and drier air will be advected into the region Monday. Temperatures at 850mb will fall throughout the day from around -5C in the morning to -11C in the afternoon. Looking at NAM model soundings over the northeast gulf and eastern gulf coast, steep 700-850mb lapse rates and elevated CAPE up to 300 J/kg are present. Added a slight chance for thunder from around Dry bay southward to Cross Sound to around Port Alexander late Monday morning through the afternoon hours.

Cold air advection pushing into the Panhandle should change most of the precipitation over to snow from north to south Monday morning. Due to the convective nature of the precipitation, stronger showers may be able to produce brief periods of heavy snow. Surface temperatures are expected to be in the mid 30s across the north to the upper 30s to low 40s across the south, therefore little to no accumulations are expected. With convective showers in a colder environment, precipitation is able to stay snow even with surface temperatures well above freezing as rates are usually heavier and snow melt cooling aloft cools much of the column down to near freezing.

Winds across the Gulf and inner channels increase Sunday night with the development of the low in the far northern gulf and the increased pressure gradient. SCA and gale force winds should develop across the outside waters, especially in the north on Monday. SCA southerly and westerly winds are expected to develop in the inner channels during this time frame.

LONG TERM. /Monday to Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ . A ridge over the Gulf of Alaska will slide E out of the panhandle. More zonal flow behind it will enable impulses to move across the Northern Gulf, interacting with the panhandle and bringing a renewed chance of precipitation next week.

In regards to surface features, the first system to impact the panhandle will be a shortwave trough which will interact with the area on early Monday morning. Though a lack of substantial moisture support should prevent substantial snow amounts it still looks possible that Juneau could see measurable snowfall on the ground before joining the rest of the panhandle in a predominantly rain shower regime which will be driven by cold air advection. Following the passage of this system, westerly flow will help continue to encourage the propagation of these showers throughout the panhandle, and there is a chance of follow-up snow showers Monday night in areas where the cloud deck proves insufficient for keeping temperatures above freezing.

The long range model solutions and ensembles have continued to indicate the development of a low in the North Pacific which will enter the Gulf of Alaska and impact the panhandle sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday. There still remains considerable disagreement on what the exact track of the system will be, though in a reversal from yesterday, the most recent model runs have trended further to the east, bringing the low closer to Yakutat. The exact track and timing of the system will need to be monitored closely, as depending on the strength and timing of the warm sector, overrunning could lead to an initial period of accumulating snow in parts of the northern and central panhandle, especially in Yakutat. As it stands currently, outside of Yakutat, it looks like the majority of the panhandle will see mainly rain out of this event, barring a possible period of snow for the northern panhandle and Juneau initially. Ensembles have indicated that ample moisture support will be present, but operational models continue to run the gamut on how much QPF the system will ultimately bring to SE Alaska, and so opted to choose a middle ground for the time being.

After the system pulls out on Thursday, ensembles lean towards drier weather ahead for the remainder of the forecast period.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . None.



CM/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHXA2 2 mi32 min W 9.9 G 14 43°F 1014.3 hPa24°F
ITKA2 3 mi55 min 1014.5 hPa (-1.3)
STXA2 5 mi33 min WNW 8.9 G 16 43°F 1014.3 hPa22°F
PGXA2 41 mi32 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 38°F 31°F
46084 - Cape Edgecumbe Buoy AK 48 mi65 min NNW 16 G 18 40°F 43°F5 ft1015.6 hPa (-0.9)32°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK 52 mi33 min E 13 G 16 40°F 1013.2 hPa22°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 67 mi61 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 41°F1014.9 hPa
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 94 mi55 min 1016.1 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sitka - Sitka Airport, AK3 mi62 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F28°F55%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASI

Wind History from ASI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE10E11E6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmE4CalmCalmW3CalmSW4SW3SW7W5W9
1 day ago--SE4NW8NW13N7SE4E3E4E5E4CalmE5E3E3E3E3E3E6SE9SE8SE7E8SE8SE7
2 days agoW6NW8NW12NW12N7CalmSE3E3E4CalmE5E4E5CalmE5E3CalmCalmSW4SW3SW3SW5----

Tide / Current Tables for Dog Point, Lisianski Peninsula, Sitka Sound, Alaska
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Dog Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:30 AM AKDT     3.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:19 AM AKDT     9.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:46 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:07 PM AKDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:35 PM AKDT     9.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.66.65.44.23.63.64.35.67.18.49.197.96.2420.4-0.20.21.63.65.97.88.9

Tide / Current Tables for Olga Point, Olga Strait, Sitka Sound, Alaska
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Olga Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:44 AM AKDT     3.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM AKDT     9.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:47 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:21 PM AKDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:39 PM AKDT     8.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.66.75.54.43.73.54.15.36.88.298.986.34.32.30.7-0.201.23.25.57.58.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.