Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hobart Bay, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Tuesday night/...Satellite and radar imagery continue to show snows showers rotating around the nearly stationary low out in the eastern gulf and then pushing southwest to northeast into the central and southern panhandle. Upticks in shower coverage and intensity are again expected as surface troughs continue to pivot around the low and into the panhandle.
However, satellite snow fall products and area surface obs are generally indicating snowfall rates being a bit lighter than yesterday. Allowed the Winter Weather Advisories to expire early this morning as snow total through Tuesday night will generally range from the 1 to 4 inch range. However, given the showery, convective nature of the snow, localized higher amounts are possible, especially along eastern side of Baranof Island, including Tenakee Springs and Hoonah, where the Winter Weather Advisory continues into the afternoon.

Further north, high pressure continues to build into the Yukon with cold, drier northerly outflow increasing for Haines and Skagway.

LONG TERM
The main story for the mid to the end of week will continue to be northerly outflow with a chance of snow showers over the central to southern portions of SE AK. These showers will continue to be variable allowing the heaviest showers to bring moderate snow with reduced visibilities, and times of slightly increased winds. The next wave of moderate to heavy showers is most likely to move over the central and southern panhandle Wednesday and Thursday as a band of higher vorticity moves northward. Currently, highest accumulation looks to be over Prince of Wales Island with the most likely solution of 2 to 4 inches in 24 hours with a low chance of 20 to 40% chance of snow amounts near 6 to 8 inches. We will continue to monitor these chances. The upper level low over the gulf, along with the high pressure over the Bering Sea, will continue to allow for northwesterly flow to bring cold air over the panhandle. This will continue to slowly decrease temperatures as well as keep the precipitation type as snow. The far southern panhandle will still see times of rain or a rain/snow mix, but snow will be the most likely precipitation type.

Otherwise, winds will continue to become northerly across the inner channels with outflow winds building. All inner channel winds are anticipated to become northerly by Thursday. Strongest outflow winds will remain over Lynn Canal into Point Couverden, N Stephens Passage, and Icy Strait with strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) through the weekend. Times of gale force winds (34 to 40 kts)
are also possible, most likely occurring Wednesday and Thursday over Lynn Canal. For land winds, Skagway is likely to see strong winds with a 50 to 60% chance of wind gusts near 40 mph on Wednesday.

This colder pattern looks to continue through the weekend into the start of next week as the high remains over the Bering Sea. This means that the next system that pushes into the panhandle will likely bring more snow to the area due to the colder temperatures in place. We will continue to monitor for when the next low pressure system may arrive allowing for this change in pattern.

AVIATION
Snow showers remain the main concern for aviation this morning, particularly along the outer coastline and across the central and southern panhandle. Most of the panhandle is expected to continue to see VFR conditions last throughout the TAF period, particularly across the northern panhandle, as the low continues to slowly move southward offshore. The outer coastline from Cross Sound southward will continue to see these on and off showers lasting throughout the day and into tonight as the low then is expected to linger offshore. The showers will push more northward with most of these showers expecting to push as far north as Icy Strait Corridor.

Showers will continue to bring intermittent drops in CIGs to AoB 2000 ft, down to AoB 800 ft across parts of the southern panhandle this morning, as well as bring VIS down to 2SM or lower during the heavier snow showers. Chances for periods of these worse flying conditions down to MVFR to IFR will exist throughout the TAF period for much of the central and southern panhandle, being most likely through 20z this morning. Higher chance for VFR conditions to return around midday, before flight conditions are expected to deteriorate again across much of the panhandle tonight into the end of the TAF period as another more organized band of showers associated with some surface troughing is expected to push across the southern and central panhandle. Overall variable flight conditions due to the scattered snow showers throughout the TAF period.

No LLWS concerns for this period, and the only wind concern is the outflow winds across the northern panhandle. Expecting 15 to 20 kt winds for Skagway and Haines into midday, with gusts to 25 kt for Haines and up to 30 kt for Skagway as the outflow strengthens during the midday and afternoon hours. Conditions will strengthen again into the very end of the TAF period as Wednesday sets up for some stronger northerly outflow.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Outflow conditions are beginning and will increase through midweek as the low in the gulf drifts southward. From Cross Sound northward, NE gap flow winds increase to a strong breeze out of interior passes, including out of Disenchantment Bay. Seas trend up as a result and look to become hazardous to small craft along the northeast coastal waters.
Over the southern waters, wave heights drop from 7 to 10 ft to 4 to 7 ft by Wednesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Outflow winds will increase through midweek, with strong breezes expected through most of northern/central inner channels, with gales possible for Lynn Canal by Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy freezing spray likely to develop for Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay. Wave heights will build in Lynn Canal, Glacier Bay, Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage as persistent outflow brings more fully developed seas.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ321.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-661>664-671- 672.