Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hobart Bay, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 082331 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 231 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2024

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday night/ Light precipitation has returned to some areas of the central and north panhandle today as low level flow turned to a more onshore southerly direction last night. Temperatures this morning remained cold enough in parts of the north that freezing drizzle was reported at Gustavus for a time before temperatures warmed above freezing about midday. The onshore flow has also kept a layer of clouds across most of the panhandle today too.

Light precipitation is expected to linger across the northern 2/3rds of the panhandle into Monday as southerly onshore flow continues to interact with the higher terrain in the north.
Temperatures are expected to cool off to below freezing in the north tonight, but cloud cover will prevent temperatures from plunging any colder though. It will be cold enough for some snow to be observed tonight in the northern panhandle though any accumulations will be light.

Monday into Monday night features a gale force front that will be moving into the gulf and Panhandle from the West. Most of the wind and precip will stay over the gulf waters for Monday, but will be moving into the panhandle Monday evening. The front will be weakening as it comes though as it will gradually lose its jet and vorticity support as it moves east, so the highest winds and heaviest rain will be over the gulf waters primarily. Still expect some breezy winds across the south and outer coast as the front moves in, while rainfall will mainly total to around a quarter of an inch. The warm air advection from this front will also keep most areas as rain with slowly warming or steady temps in the mid 30s to low 40s Monday night. Only the extreme north (Haines and Skagway) could see some snow, and even then it will not amount to much with the low QPF forecasted before changing over to rain by Tuesday.


LONG TERM
At the surface, the mid range will see conditions deteriorate out in the gulf as winds from the next front coming in from the west will already be increasing across the gulf waters. Guidance is still indicated that timing of the front is slower with the majority of precip and winds not making the panhandle until Tuesday night. The front will also be weakening as it comes trying to erode the ridging over the panhandle, so winds and precip are not expected to be overly excessive except for gales in the gulf waters with the tightening of the pressure gradient. This first front will serve to begin pushing out the ridge that will be anchored over the panhandle to start the week and pave the way for a more robust secondary front.

Of more concern is the front coming in behind the first on Wednesday which will be stronger and wetter, but also faster moving. Gales are again expected for the gulf waters, but will also affect the southern panhandle and outer coast just as much. Rain will also be more substantial with the 50th percentile of 24 hour rainfall maxing out around 1 inch for the southern panhandle and outer coast Wednesday (90th percentile is around 2 inches, while 10th percentile is around 0.3 inches for the same time period) though depending on frontal orientation totals may be higher or lower.

Post frontal showers take over Thursday into Friday with a cooler air mass wrapping in from the Bering Sea. Temperatures may drop low enough to switch the northern panhandle to snow by Friday.
Uncertain forecast after that point, but general trends are starting to point to another cold air mass dropping south out of Canada that may bring some outflow winds for next weekend.
However, the Pacific storm track is still mostly aimed in our general direction, and is still sending storms toward the southern panhandle at the same time, so what we get will likely be determined by which side (cold or warm) wins out next weekend.
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