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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 510 Pm Akst Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory Monday...
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Mon..E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 032355 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 255 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2023

SHORT TERM
/through Monday night/...The parade of lows continues. Tonight, the low currently in the gulf will move north and fade out. As the low moves on, winds will decrease, waves will decrease, and any leftover rains will diminish or lighten up.

But, the next gale force low will move in before we can really feel the effects of the lull between lows.

The associated front with this low will track north, bringing the panhandle preciptiation. While most areas will see rain or brief snow before it switches to rain, the northerly winds in Northern Lynn Canal are expected to keep the cooler air in place. So when the precip collides with the cooler air, moderate to heavy snow will result. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued ahead of this next round of heavy snow for the northern Lynn Canal area.

Along with the snow in the north, the coast and parts of the southern panhandle will see strong gusty winds as the front moves through.Strongest gusts upwards of 40 to 55 mph are possible as the front passes, before the gusts decrease to around 35 to 45 mph.


LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Sunday/...Beginning the Tuesday time frame, the system discussed in the short term will be moving into the northern gulf. After settling near Prince William Sound, it will become stationary and remain through most of the week, slowly decaying. The result is a relatively consistent pattern for the rest of the week with constant onshore flow and periods of rain and snow. The initial two waves will be coming to a close on Tuesday with snow for the highways and rain elsewhere. Main area of concern for the second wave is the Klondike highway due to higher elevation and how far the moisture will push up through the channels. Current thinking is that Haines will properly turn to rain in the morning hours from rain and snow with the southerly push up Lynn Canal. Skagway will likely change soon after, however, the Klondike highway will likely stay snow through the day as the warm air attempts to work itself northward.

Beyond Tuesday is more uncertain. While there is constantly onshore flow, there are some indications in both deterministic runs and ensemble runs that some shortwaves will push up along the decaying low in the north central gulf. Such lows will likely bring slightly enhanced winds and precip relative to the 15-20 knot winds and light rain. Significant snow accumulation (greater than one inch) is not currently on the agenda for the rest of the week, although it is possible to see some mixed precipitation and snow later in the week.

Finally, some indications of a potent system moving up from the south during the weekend timeframe. While details are still being ironed out, some increased winds and possibly snow may be in SE AK's future.

AVIATION
IFR/MVFR conditions lifted to MVFR Sunday, as showers moved ashore under a weakening front. A few isolated thunderstorms popped up in the southern Panhandle. More precip, increasing surface winds, and LLWS moves in Sunday night under a gale force low. MVFR, dropping to IFR at times for the majority of the Panhandle, with IFR more likely in the far north of Lynn canal from falling snow while warming temps will result in other areas receiving mostly rain. Unfavorable flight conditions continue into late Tuesday at least.

MARINE
The wind and waves over the marine waters are expected to diminish through the evening and into the overnight as the current low in the gulf fades out. So the wave heights out there now, upwards of 10 to 20 feet in the gulf, should diminish to around 10 to 15 by late tonight. And the wind speed around 15 to 30 kts should decrease to around 15 to 20 kts by late tonight.

The inner channels are currently seeing speeds around 10 to 20 kts, with some isolated areas seeing lighter speeds and other areas, mostly around Icy Strait, seeing speeds upwards of 20 to 30 knots.
Decreasing speeds are also expected for the inner channels tonight, to around 10 to 15 kts.

All that being said, the next gale force low will move into the gulf tomorrow. So all those diminishing winds and waves will go right back up as the low approaches. As the front moves through, wind speeds upwards of 30 to 40 kts are expected along the front in the gulf. Waves will also reach near 20 feet along the front.

Inner channel wind speeds will increase to around 20 to 25 kts as the front tracks north. Speeds in the southern inner channel waters will be a little higher, at up to 35 kts.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from noon Monday to noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for AKZ323-328-330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-032>035-053-651-652.

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Cleveland Passage, Whitney Island, Frederick Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Hobart Bay
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Sun -- 05:09 AM AKST     12.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:12 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:49 AM AKST     6.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:56 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:13 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:36 PM AKST     12.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:45 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:25 PM AKST     2.38 feet Low Tide
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Hobart Bay, Stephens Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

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