FXAK67 PAJK 152308 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 308 PM AKDT Sun Sep 15 2024

SHORT TERM
A front is currently making its way across the panhandle creating periods of moderate to heavy rain for coastal communities and increased winds for the northern panhandle. Rain is currently occurring across the panhandle with the main rain band along the outer coast. Rain will continue to move across the panhandle becoming showers tomorrow. The increased winds are due to a tight pressure gradient throughout the panhandle. This gradient is expected to weaken tonight to help weaken these stronger winds that are currently occurring.

The main wind impacts are in the inner channels and the northern cities. Strong breezes, for the inner channels, will continue through tonight for southern channels and until Monday for northern inner channels. Currently, the strongest winds in Haines, Skagway, and Juneau will also start to diminish tonight into tomorrow.

Another low will track south of the panhandle Monday brining more rain to the southern panhandle. An increase of winds is expected as well, but nothing too significant with highest winds expected being strong breezes in the inner channels and in the southern gulf. This low will move quickly south of the panhandle. The exact track and location of the low will determine where the strongest winds and heaviest rain occurs.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Friday/...
Quick Notes: -Rainy weather continues.
-24 hour rainfall amounts are not out of the ordinary for this time of year.
-Marine winds will be elevated late Tuesday night through Wednesday night with sustained winds around 15-25 kts for some of the inner channels.

Details: The active pattern will continue across the panhandle through next week.

To start off, an exiting system on Tuesday with brief 500mb ridging may give the area a short break in the rainy weather, and even some breaks in the clouds, on Tuesday.

The short break will come to an end Wednesday as the next front pushes through. There will be both wind and rain with this front.
That being said, rainfall amounts aren't all the impressive for this time of year, with 24 hour rainfall amounts around 0.50 to 1 inch.

Wind speeds will increase as the front tracks through, but nothing too out of the ordinary with frontal passes this time of year.
Beginning late Tuesday night, most inner channels will see speeds increase to around 10 to 20 knots for Wednesday. The exception will be Lynn Canal where sustained speeds upwards of 25 knots are possible based on forecasted pressure gradients.

Once the front clears the area, lingering light, on/off rain will last through Friday with decreasing wind speeds.

Ultimately, what is currently on the radar as the next impactful rain event could possibly be next weekend, into early next week.
There are early indications of a long duration rain event. At this time, there is 40-60% chance of IVT values exceeding 250 kg/m/s for three days. Unfortunately, details are scarce, but it will be monitored closely.
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