AVIATION
The rest of today will continue to have prevailing VFR conditions. As we get into the morning expect areas of fog to develop that can limit visibilities to MVFR/IFR conditions.
Conditions will then start to deteriorate as a low brings rain and winds across the panhandle, mainly impacting the southern panhandle.
Winds will start to increase late Friday morning as this low approaches. Prevailing conditions will then change to MVFR.
Something to be aware of is potential for windshear across the southern panhandle starting tomorrow early afternoon diminishing mid Saturday.

MARINE
The first two impactful Autumn weather systems will occur Friday and Sunday night. Both will feature pre-frontal gales over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The first system on Friday night will also feature a wrap-around core of gale force northeasterlies Friday evening in the northern quadrant of the low. Marine winds associated with this first system will weaken rapidly as the parent low weakens over land and winds over the inner channels should be non-impactful Saturday and Saturday night. Off the outer coast, northwesterly small craft winds associated with a transient surface ridge will organize late Saturday night but not amount to much as the ridge gets displaced to the east by the next weather system. Winds over the eastern Gulf will organize out of the southeast on Sunday and intensify to gale force overnight Sunday. Multiple inner channels will likely see gales again late Sunday night going into Monday but should weaken rapidly in the post-frontal environment Monday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
Key points. Two Atmospheric rivers will impact the region: Friday into Sunday. Monday into Wednesday.

The trends and divergences of different models over the last week in the placement, magnitude, and extent of multiple atmospheric rivers have been a challenge to pinpoint impacts, with guidance still struggling to show some agreement 72 hours out. For now, we can say that two atmospheric rivers will impact the Panhandle: the first Friday into Sunday and the second, Monday into Wednesday.

Friday into Sunday. A weak AR-1 will slide into the southern region Friday bringing heavy rainfall into Saturday, buy-and- large, expect 2 to 4 inches of rain in 24 hours, with the most in the south. Sunday is the big unknown, with the GFS continuing to be the outlier suggesting a longer duration event into later Sunday. For now, trending with the ECMWF solution. In simple terms, expect rainfall to continue Sunday, but at lighter rates, with the north likely seeing rain come to an end for a few hours.

Early Monday into Wednesday. A moderate to potentially strong atmospheric river will move in, with trends bringing more moisture further north for a longer time frame. While 24 hour amounts are a bit far to say with any single value certainty, we have confidence there will be moderate to heavy rain for 24 hours, along with elevated winds from the extensive low in the western Gulf. Ranges from long range guidance give about 4 to 7 inches from Monday into Wednesday. To put this range into perspective, 8 inches of rainfall in a 3 day period for Ketchikan is classified by return intervals as a 1 year event. A very wet fall storm with wind concerns but 24 hour rainfall values remain separate from a more extreme event.

For this weekend, significant river rise is expected in the south but flooding is not anticipated. Some flooding for the start of the week is starting to look more likely but will ultimately depend on how much rain we receive through Sunday and the placement of our next AR.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ323.
Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ328.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032>035-651-652-672.