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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 301 Am Akst Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 041409 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 509 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2023

SHORT TERM
/Through Tonight/...A strong Gale-force frontal system pushing its way from SW to NE through the eastern Gulf and Panhandle will bring southeasterly Gale-force winds up to between 35 and 45 knots to the eastern Gulf, Clarence Strait, and around ocean entrances for the period. For the vast majority of the Inner Channels, southeasterly winds of up to around 25-30 kt Small Craft Advisory values are anticipated associated with the aforementioned frontal system and the associated tightened SFC pressure gradient between it and an area of higher pressure centered to the north over the Canadian Yukon region. Southern Panhandle land areas and central and southern Panhandle Outer Coast land areas have Strong Wind headlines for winds gusting up to between 40 and 50 mph associated with the tightened gradient with this frontal system for the period.

The lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere are plenty warm enough for most areas to remain rain through the period. The rain may be heavy at times for many central and southern Panhandle areas along with and out ahead of the front as it makes its march through the region. The exception will be the Northern Lynn Canal area, including Haines, Skagway, White Pass, Haines Customs, Klukwan, and Dyea, which will receive appreciable amounts of snowfall through the period. The highest accumulations are expected along the Haines and Klondike Highways away from Lynn Canal and away from Haines and Skagway proper. They will have plenty of low and mid-level cold air in place to receive between 5 and 12 inches of snow accumulation within those zones during the peak of this event, which will be from between noon Monday and noon AKST Tuesday for that area. Therefore, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for that region for the aforementioned timeframe.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Sunday/...Beginning the Tuesday time frame, the system discussed in the short term will be moving into the northern gulf. After settling near Prince William Sound, it will become stationary and remain through most of the week, slowly decaying. The result is a relatively consistent pattern for the rest of the week with constant onshore flow and periods of rain and snow. The initial two waves will be coming to a close on Tuesday with snow for the highways and rain elsewhere. Main area of concern for the second wave is the Klondike highway due to higher elevation and how far the moisture will push up through the channels. Current thinking is that Haines will properly turn to rain in the morning hours from rain and snow with the southerly push up Lynn Canal. Skagway will likely change soon after, however, the Klondike highway will likely stay snow through the day as the warm air attempts to work itself northward.

Beyond Tuesday is more uncertain. While there is constantly onshore flow, there are some indications in both deterministic runs and ensemble runs that some shortwaves will push up along the decaying low in the north central gulf. Such lows will likely bring slightly enhanced winds and precip relative to the 15-20 knot winds and light rain. Significant snow accumulation (greater than one inch) is not currently on the agenda for the rest of the week, although it is possible to see some mixed precipitation and snow later in the week.

Finally, some indications of a potent system moving up from the south during the weekend timeframe. While details are still being ironed out, some increased winds and possibly snow may be in SE AK's future.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Tuesday/...
Current SITREP is MVFR/VFR in the south, with IFR/LIFR in the far north from SN, and the northern gulf coast seeing MVFR. Expect conditions to worsen through Monday as our system makes landfall, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain in the central and south, along with LLWS. Ceilings will border MVFR/IFR, with visibility dropping to IFR under heavier rain in the central and south, with IFR holding under the snow in the far north. Isolated thunderstorms becoming more likely for the southern coast for Monday night as cold unstable air moves in from the Gulf.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this evening for AKZ323-328.
Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ327.
Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this evening for AKZ330.
Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-641>644-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>035-053-651-652.

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