Sunrise 4:28 AM   Sunset 9:19 PM Moonrise 10:27 AM   Moonset 3:01 AM

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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 329 Am Akdt Tue May 14 2024
Today - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.Tonight - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.Wed - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wed night - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 141357 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 557 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

SHORT TERM
Active weather continues across the panhandle through Tuesday. The southern half of the panhandle will see more sustained, stratiform precipitation as an atmospheric river moves through, albeit with the greatest QPF totals likely to be over Haida Gwaii. The northern half will continue to feature some embedded convective elements as onshore flow proves to be the primary driving force through the day - though this will result in some relative lulls between heavier bands of precip. The decaying low over the northern gulf responsible for the current weather pattern will slowly move E through Tuesday, contributing to the continued chances of precip even as the system moving through the S panhandle departs overnight. Much of the panhandle, especially the northern and central panhandle, could potentially see drier weather and some clearing skies by the latter half of Wednesday.
The forecast itself remains largely on track, with only minimal changes made.

LONG TERM
The primary feature of the mid range forecast is a weak atmospheric river (AR) Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately for many in the southern panhandle, the main hose of moisture is looking increasingly likely to miss our AOR, and instead mainly impact Haida Gwaii. While there are still indications that places like the western side of PoW Island and Ketchikan may get substantial rainfall, the probabilities of this has gone down based on the run to run ensemble models between yesterday. The higher weighted models, the GEFS and the GEPS, which previously were in lock step run to run, appear to have shifted the bulk of the precipitation southward to match the EPS and ECMWF. In addition, any additional surface lows being generated off of the potent jet streak aloft looks to impact Haida Gwaii. While Ketchikan, Hydaburg, and Craig may see some enhanced northerly winds as a developing system passes south, the overall threat has decreased. Again, while it is possible that heavier rains and winds could impact the southern panhandle, the likelihood is now lower.

Finally, looking late Thursday into Friday, a ridge begins to build aloft with a surface ridge in the outer gulf. From this setup, a short lived drier pattern will extend over the panhandle with some possible break in clouds, particularly for the northern half of the panhandle.

AVIATION
/Until 12 Wednesday/...A post-frontal onshore-flow showery regime will continue to provide primarily MVFR category CIG and VIS flight conditions over most of the Panhandle with periodic rises into low-end VFR category through the TAF period.
The lower flight conditions will be associated with the heavier showers. SFC winds and LLWS will remain benign through the period.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664.

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Cannery Cove, Pybus Bay, Frederick Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

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