Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Larsen Bay, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The large Bering Sea low is finally pushing onshore over Southwest Alaska and will continue weakening. Light snow showers will continue drifting eastward across Southwest Alaska through today, with some colder air pushing in on the backside. Some light blowing/drifting snow is possible along the coast this morning as gusty winds slowly diminish, though falling snow is expected to taper off early this morning. By this afternoon and evening, weak ridging will bring further calm to the mainland with pockets of blue sky showing before sunset.

Moving into the weekend, the next weather maker will slide across the Bering from west to east. This all stems from a low barreling towards Kamchatka. Extending south and east from this low is a rather expansive occluded front that will eventually develop a triple point low near St. Paul. Warmer air is expected to accompany the front, to once again shove the colder air mass out and bring warmer temperatures across the Bering and Southwest Alaska. Winds and rain are expected across the Aleutian Chain, with gales near Shemya diminishing to small craft as they cross the Central Aleutians. However, a secondary low gets pulled north out of the North Pacific towards the Central/Eastern Aleutians Friday/Saturday, bringing stronger winds to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, with some models hinting at storm force gusts, though uncertainty remains. The weekend will see the return to unsettled weather as precipitation of many forms will move back over land.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through Wednesday)...

Persistent upper level ridging looks to remain anchored in the Pacific with shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis this weekend into early next week. A low pressure system and its accompanying front move through Southwest Alaska Saturday. The main threat with this system at this time looks to be the potential for moderate snowfall across interior Southwest Alaska, rain mixing with snow along the coast, and rainfall across the Alaska Peninsula. This system crosses the AKPen and moves into the Gulf Saturday night and quickly continues toward Southeast Alaska on Sunday. With slight weakening as it crosses the AKPen and a deepening shortwave, there is an increased chance for snowfall across Southcentral Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure under a Bering ridge moves in behind the low which tightens the pressure gradient in the southern AKPen and Barren Islands. This will increase the chance for gusty northwesterly gap winds Sunday into Monday.

The Bering ridge moves over Southcentral Monday before a second progressive shortwave moves through the AKPen and breaks it down Monday night. This brings increased chances for precipitation Monday across Southwest and Tuesday across coastal Southcentral. A surface low develops in the western Gulf Tuesday, resulting in another tight pressure gradient which will increase the chance for gusty northwesterly gap winds from the AKPen through the Barren Islands. Models continue ridging over the Pacific through midweek with weak waves traversing over the Aleutian Chain. However, there is divergence on the timing of waves over the Aleutians and the movement of an Arctic trough southwards from northern Alaska.
These details will become more clear in the coming days.

PA



AVIATION

PANC.. MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the early morning hours, then VFR conditions will prevail by late this morning and early this afternoon. Snow showers are expected to continue to move through the region through the morning hours, clearing out by the afternoon. Wind speeds will shift southeasterly by the late morning, but will remain light. Low stratus and fog may develop tonight, potentially dropping conditions to IFR at times.