Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Larsen Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:08PM Friday September 20, 2019 8:47 AM AKDT (16:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 1:28PM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 414 Am Akdt Fri Sep 20 2019
.gale warning tonight...
Today..W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Sat..W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sat night..W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Mon..N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue..W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK
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location: 57.53, -154     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201301
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
501 am akdt Fri sep 20 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A long wave trough currently resides over southwest ak and is
extending southeast from an upper level low located in the
chukchi sea. This trough is pushing northeast and is supporting
the low pressure system that is currently moving into southcentral
ak from the gulf of alaska. Behind this trough, zonal flow
continues right over the aleutian chain, furthering the rapid
succession of low pressure systems through our forecast area.

Indeed, the next two lows are already lined up. One is a weak low
currently moving through the bering sea and will impact southwest
ak tomorrow. The other is a more significant low that is just
entering the western aleutians and will make its way east,
entering the gulf of alaska Sunday into Monday.

Model discussion
Models continue to perform well in the short term. Differences do
emerge with respect to a low pressure system moving into the gulf
Monday, so there is some uncertainty there. However, they agree
enough for us to know the next system of importance will be moving
into the area Sunday into Monday. So, we still have confidence in
the forecast, even if particulars need to be ironed out.

Aviation
Panc... A low pressure system moving through the area will provide
the possibility for mfvr ceilings this morning. Otherwise, expect
overcast skies with light rain, but conditions remainingVFR.

Winds will be light out of the north.

Fire weather
Another low pressure system moving through southcentral ak is
bringing steady rain to areas around fires. Enough precipitation
should fall to produce wetting rains. Weather will continue to
remain cool and damp after the exit of the low.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The biggest forecast question for today involves the track of the
low in the gulf and how far east it will go in the prince william
sound area. It looks as though the low will enter the eastern part
of the sound instead of the western part today. While this is a
small difference, it will make a difference in how soon the rain
on the western edge of this system ends or at least becomes much
lighter. The anchorage bowl and matanuska valley will be near
this edge today and tonight and that is why this may be noticeable.

Therefore, lowered the amount of QPF expected over anchorage and
the mat-su valleys, but kept the pops rather high. This is because
there will still be some light rain, but the heaviest amounts
look to be farther to the east over the chugach mountains.

After this system clears to the east there will a short break
before the next system moves into the area from the southwest late
Sunday. This break may bring in widespread clear skies Saturday
night which would likely bring in the first freeze of the season
to areas such as east anchorage, the butte, and near kenai.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1-3: fri-sun)
Cool temperatures, northerly flow, and patchy fog remain across
southwest alaska for this morning. Showers across bristol bay and
the kuskokwim valley will diminish through this afternoon as the
current system moves eastward out of the region. Low temperatures
overnight will once again dip near the freezing mark across the
region as clearing conditions continue before the next front
approaches the southwest coast for Saturday. Widespread precipitation
will move inland over the kuskokwim delta and bristol bay by
Saturday afternoon as the front lifts northeastward through Sunday
morning.

A new and stronger low moving inland from the bering will become
the dominant feature by Sunday afternoon, keeping a track farther
south than the previous feature. This will bring another another
shot of widespread rainfall to the the alaska peninsula and
bristol bay region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The eastern bering and bristol bay will continue to see northwesterly
small craft advisory winds associated with the low that has moved
into the gulf. Strong gap flow along southern portions of the akpen
will continue to see the potential for gale force winds out of bays
and passes, which will slowly diminish through Saturday morning.

A second feature of interest is the low in the northern bering
this morning that will keep small craft winds and it moves towards
the pribilofs for Saturday morning. Winds will weaken as the low
moves inland over the y-k delta coast by Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon, a strong low approaches the central
aleutians moving in from the north pacific. Small craft winds,
increasing to gales, will accompany this low feature, stretching
out into the central and eastern bering Saturday through Sunday.

The possibility of storm force winds on the back side of this low
cannot be ruled out as winds move over the central aleutians, from
dutch harbor to cold bay. Models are still uncertain about the
exact position of the low center, but this low is expected to
strengthen as it moves eastward for Sunday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Starting Sunday, winds in the gulf will diminish as a low exits to
the east. Small craft advisory level seas driven by fresh swell
will persist Sunday morning, but likely diminish by the afternoon.

Attention turns to a low currently developing south of the
central aleutians. Gales are expected over the central and eastern
aleutians by Sunday, then models continue to project a triple
point low developing late Sunday into Monday that would bring
gales into the gulf. There's uncertainty with the path strength
of the secondary low, but at this point confidence is growing that
there will be gales in the gulf Monday, possibly persisting into
Tuesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
A relatively progressive pattern will continue as a low traverses
the aleutians, bringing widespread precipitation and gusty winds
to the aleutians Sunday. The southwest mainland will probably see
some precipitation from this system, especially over the akpen...

but the primary impacts will be felt over the aleutians. The low
is expected to track into the gulf. Thus, as the low progresses
eastward Sunday into Monday, precipitation is expected over kodiak
island and the north gulf coast. Farther north, east northeast
flow will prevail and relatively dry weather is expected. An
arctic trough over the bering strait will strengthen by midweek,
maintaining relatively cold conditions and unsettled weather over
southern alaska. Another low will develop in the central bering
Thursday into Friday, but it's too early for confidence in
details.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning: 120 125 130-132 138 351 352
storm warning: 119 150
fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bjb
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 27 mi58 min Calm G 1.9 52°F 55°F1 ft990.7 hPa (-1.4)46°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 46 mi48 min NW 9.9 G 17 51°F 54°F991.1 hPa (-0.7)
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 80 mi54 min WSW 8 G 15 53°F 54°F988.8 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Larsen Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:32 AM AKDT     2.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM AKDT     10.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:38 PM AKDT     5.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:28 PM AKDT     12.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:20 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:01 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.43.65.57.59.310.410.6108.97.66.45.65.56.489.811.312.11211.19.47.35.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mining Camp, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Mining Camp
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:23 AM AKDT     2.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM AKDT     10.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:29 PM AKDT     5.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:26 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:05 PM AKDT     12.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:00 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.546.28.31010.910.8108.77.46.25.55.66.78.610.511.912.412.110.996.95.1

Weather Map
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.