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PKZ643 Cape Edgecumbe To Cape Spencer Out To 15 Nm- 256 Pm Akst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory through Sunday...
Tonight..N wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell in the evening. Rain and snow early in the evening. Rain late.
Sun..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft late. Rain.
Mon..S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
Wed..S gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
Thu..S gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

PKZ600
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 091518 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 618 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2023

SHORT TERM
/Through Tonight/...A potent low tracks northward over the southeastern Gulf and into the central Inner Channels through tonight while weakening. Strong winds to high winds are spreading into the southern half of the Panhandle and Inner Channels. Wind gusts will increase up to around 60 mph over Prince of Wales Island, Annette, Metlakatla, and the Ketchikan areas today. Zones to the north of these areas but south of Angoon have a strong wind headlines for gusts to between 40 and 50 mph on Saturday. Winds will be diminishing from this afternoon through tonight. We anticipate that they will be less than 25 mph by evening, although the coastal areas, south of Sitka, may still have brisk westerly winds moving onshore tonight. Information pertaining to marine winds can be found in the Marine Section, below...

A good bit of rain will be falling across the southern half of the Panhandle with this system with storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches received once all is said and done. Lower liquid QPF accumulations are in store for the northern Panhandle with temperatures on cooler side. A wintry mix or snow for the northern third of the Panhandle is currently ongoing and is in store for today as low and mid-level temperatures are just good enough for that to occur.

For the Juneau area, temperatures have been running a bit cooler than was previously anticipated, and snow has been falling through the evening and overnight across that area. Additionally, measurements through the evening and overnight hours at our office in the back of the Valley show that higher snow ratios of between 10:1 to 20:1 have been occurring, which has led to higher snow accumulations. Bands of snow and wintry mix will move through throughout the day from the south, bringing up to between 3 and 5 additional inches of accumulation, giving storm total snow accumulations of up to between 5 and 8 inches. The highest accumulations are anticipated to occur near the back of the Mendenhall Valley and at higher elevations. Snow ratios have been gradually decreasing through the night, and Snow ratios are expected to continue to lower through this afternoon, causing snow to accumulate less rapidly. Snow will tapper off Saturday evening.

LONG TERM
/Sunday through Friday/...Ensemble model guidance continues to trend towards an active pattern to set up by the start of next week with overall ridging over the panhandle into British Columbia and troughing over the Alaska Peninsula and NW gulf. The strength of this ridge building in Sunday will determine the amount of clearing (from south to north) and drying possible over the panhandle and could influence the timing of the return of precipitation on Monday. As of this forecast period, the southern panhandle has the highest likelihood of seeing clearing with a brief break between systems Sunday into Monday morning.

For early next week, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop with the above mentioned synoptic setup, leading to widespread gale force winds throughout the gulf with a front sweeping across into the NE gulf coast. This feature will also bring a weak to moderate AR event to the central and southern panhandle, with IVT values of 500 for an extended period. Model guidance is trending towards the northern panhandle and gulf coast seeing the first surge of moisture with the initial gale force front the second half of Monday, before a secondary stronger surge impacts the central and southern panhandle early Tuesday lasting into early Wednesday. 12 hour rainfall totals for this secondary surge are showing the potential to exceed 10 and in some cases 25 year return intervals. This would likely lead to river rises in the wake of the Saturday storm, especially in the southern panhandle. Overall this is expected to be a rain event due to rising snow levels ahead of and during the heaviest precipitation.
However, the northern panhandle, particularly at higher elevations along the Haines and Klondike Highways, could see significant snow accumulation initially before a likely transition to mix or straight rain.

While the main focus of this event remains the widespread heavy rain potential, strong winds will likely develop in the gulf along the coastal waters and potentially reach further inland at higher elevations. With the ridge in the interior and the low spinning over the northwest gulf, a tight gradient will set up and persist over the southern panhandle during this timeframe as well, leading to strong gale force southerly winds pushing up from Hecate Strait up into Clarence Strait with the potential to reach storm force. Therefore strong winds would also be expected for southern Prince of Wales as well as Annette Island and Ketchikan for this time period. Stay tuned for further updates to this evolving situation as we head into the weekend.

Into the latter half of the week, active weather is expected to continue with yet another front possible late Wed into Thu. There is also some indications that some lows could spin up along that front into Fri, though confidence is poor on that aspect. What is more confident is continued wet weather through the end of the week at least.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Sunday/...IFR in the north early this morning from -SN improving to MVFR. Expect mostly MVFR with -SNRA across the north and MVFR -RA in the south into the afternoon; however, under any heavier snow showers in the north will see IFR from VSBY at times. Colder air moves back in the north this evening, bringing -SN and IFR. Precip diminishes across the area late tonight with the possibility of a IFR low stratus deck for the central Panhandle by 12Z Sunday.

LLWS is a threat across the central and southern region through this evening.

MARINE
/Through Tonight/...A storm-force low will move up from the south into the southeastern Gulf and start the process of weakening. This low looks to track northward, generating near Gale force easterly winds in Sumner Strait, southern Chatham Strait, and western Fredrick Sound. It will then dive northeastward near the southern tip of Baranof Island this evening and continue to quickly weaken over the central Inner Channels and get absorbed into the overall synoptic flow through the overnight hours. The frontal band will generate storm force winds around the Dixon Entrance and the southern part of Clarence Strait near the ocean entrance. High/rough seas are expected as this system moves northward. Winds will quickly/abruptly shift from easterly and southeasterly to westerly before diminishing.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ323-327-329.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325.
Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon for AKZ326.
High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ328.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641-661.
Gale Warning for PKZ036-642-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033>035-053-643-644-651- 652-663-664-671-672.

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Povorotni Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM AKST     4.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:35 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:01 AM AKST     14.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:27 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:17 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:51 PM AKST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:01 PM AKST     12.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Povorotni Island, Pogibshi Point, Peril Strait, Alaska, Tide feet

Sergius Narrows
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Sat -- 02:16 AM AKST     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:35 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:38 AM AKST     5.56 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:15 AM AKST     -0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:51 AM AKST     -5.28 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:28 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:38 PM AKST     0.14 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:18 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:06 PM AKST     5.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:50 PM AKST     -0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:17 PM AKST     -5.17 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sergius Narrows, Peril Strait, Alaska Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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