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PKZ136 Chiniak Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today..NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri through Sat..N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sun..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 041330 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 430 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

The quiet weather pattern for Southcentral Alaska is coming to an end as a 958 mb low in the Northern Pacific lumbers slowly into the Southern Gulf of alaska today, and into the Central Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday as a 965 mb low and into the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday as a 982 mb low and finally makes landfall just east of Prince William Sound as a 992 mb low on Thursday morning.

Expect northerly gap winds continue this morning and through the day as well as gales to develop in the marine areas of the northern Gulf this morning. Radar continues to show an increase in precipitation along the north Gulf coast this morning. With the slow moving low only inching northward and remaining out over the Gulf, cold air will remain entrenched near the surface over inland Southcentral. As a result, gap winds remain persistent around the same intensity through at least Wednesday if not into Thursday.

On Tuesday, a relatively weak, neutrally-tilted trough pushes in over Western Alaska, drawing north mid-level moisture from the low in the Gulf and bringing snow to portions of Southcentral Alaska. The strength and progression of the trough will determine how it interacts with the Gulf low. With significant spread in how the models depicting this interaction, there is significant uncertainty in where the axis of precipitation ultimately sets up. The current most likely scenario puts the band of precipitation over the Copper River Basin, with a focus toward the western half. With cold air persisting inland, this could fall as potentially up to 6 inches of snow through Wednesday afternoon.
Higher amounts will be possible in the southern Copper River Basin & Thompson Pass, where more moisture is wrung out over the coastal mountains. Blowing snow is likely to be an additional hazard for Thompson Pass as cold air continues to filter out through gaps. While the forecast does not explicitly depict snow accumulation west of the Chugach Front Range and Talkeetna Mountains, there is a moderate chance that the edge of the precipitation will extend far enough west for some amount of snow to fall in Anchorage and parts of the Mat-Su Valleys.

By Wednesday, the low moves into the northeastern Gulf, drawing cold air across the Western Alaska Range. This cold air advection is likely to enhance gap winds in the western Gulf to borderline storm force. For Wednesday evening, this may begin to push precipitation eastward and eventually clear it out of Southcentral.

CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

No major changes to the forecast at this time. See previous discussion; the forecast remains on track:

Snow showers between Pilot Point up towards Togiak and Aniak and Bethel will continue to linger into this morning. It will take a little longer for the snow to diminish for the Alaska Peninsula, where snow should end by Monday evening. An additional 1 to 4 inches in expected with higher amounts closer to the mountains. As the trough weakens and a large low pressure system moves into the Gulf, cold air will filter from north to southeast across the Alaska Peninsula Monday. Temperatures will likely trend cooler across the Southwestern Interior and spreading westward to the coast through the entire week. High end gale force winds with gusts to around 50 to 60 kts through bays and passes, between the Shumigan Islands and Kodiak Island. Wide Bay and Chignik area will continue to ramp up their winds on Wednesday.

Out across the Bering, a developing low with bring a robust front will move into the western Bering after midnight. Winds ahead of the initial front from 10 to 20 kts will quickly become disrupted with gale force winds just behind the front. Another low will follow quickly behind and keep gale force winds in the northwestern Bering and across the entire northern Bering through Wednesday. Considering NAM as an outlier going into Tuesday night and Wednesday, the majority of other lows are tracking further north of St Matthew Island toward St Lawrence. Should the low track further north, it could bring a brief period of slightly warmer temperatures more northward and also have slight changes in the wind field and precipitation downstream.

Rux

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Thursday through Sunday

The beginning of the forecast works well with deterministic models through Day 5, but a change moving into ensemble models finishes better through the end of the period. The longwave trough over the Eastern Bering and Western Alaska, slips slowly Southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska and the Eastern North Pacific. High pressure holds over the Russian Far East and Far Western Aleutians and Bering through the period. A moderately strong shortwave rotates over the Eastern Bering and Western Alaska to help reorient the trough towards the Southwest by Sunday, with a number of weaker shortwaves to follow through the pattern. A closed low forms over Southern Mainland, and drifts to the East through the weekend.

Gustiest winds begin across the Bering and along the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island, with gale force gap winds likely across the Alaska Peninsula and around Kodiak Island for Thursday and Friday. Winds work their way across the Gulf with possible gales developing over the Central Gulf late Friday into Saturday.
Widespread mixed precipitation spreads over the Bering through Sunday for the Aleutians, with snow more likely over portions of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. Southcentral areas should see more snow than rain, while moderate rainfall will continue over Southeast Alaska. In the Far West, an approaching North Pacific low brings locally heavy precipitation and gusty winds approaching gale force over the Western Aleutians through Sunday.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds generally 10 mph or less will persist.

DAN

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Kodiak
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM AKST     1.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM AKST     6.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:33 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:35 PM AKST     4.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:18 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:26 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:14 PM AKST     6.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kodiak, Port of Kodiak, Alaska, Tide feet

Ouzinkie
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:15 AM AKST     1.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM AKST     6.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:34 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:33 PM AKST     4.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:19 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:12 PM AKST     7.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ouzinkie, Spruce Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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