Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 10:40 PM Moonrise 8:13 AM   Moonset 2:07 AM

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PKZ136 Chiniak Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.Thu - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu night - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri through Sat - N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sun - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 140031 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 431 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The surface low that was near Kodiak Island is elongating and weakening as it heads eastward through the Gulf. Flow across the mainland Southcentral is shifting from easterly to northerly offshore with the low passing east. Expect winds to become lighter as the low continues to weaken and a ridge builds across the region from the west. With increasing daylight and sunshine however, sea breezes will become more apparent for coastal areas with localized onshore flow during the heat of the day.

Scattered showers are moving northeast to southwest across Southcentral with more towering cumulus development compared to yesterday with a few lighting strikes noted this evening over the Western Kenai and in the Susitna and MatSu Valleys. Shower motion will gradually decrease and shift northerly (and even northwesterly depending on the position of the Gulf low) late this evening as flow weakens. Higher areas of convective instability are located in the Susitna Valley. As the ridge builds across Southcentral Tuesday and for midweek, weak up Inlet flow will return.

Southerly flow through the Copper River Basin on Thursday and perhaps even stronger Friday could aid in further drying through the Copper River Valley. RHs could dip into the 20 percent range.
Temperatures will be around 60 degrees. Elsewhere, expect sunnier skies, increasingly drier weather, and warmer temperatures through Thursday. A front could reach Kodiak Island and the western Gulf overnight Thursday into Friday morning. At this time, the ridge over Southcentral appears to be slowed with its progression eastward, but there is lower confidence in the timing of the trough.

rux/cc

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/ Today through Thursday morning)...

A building ridge will move over Southwest and the eastern Bering, providing calmer conditions through Tuesday. Simultaneously, a Kamchatka low extends a warm front across the western Aleutians.
Widespread southerly gale force winds are expected as the system moves eastward. Warm air behind the front will quickly switch any wintry precipitation into rain as it passes into the central Bering Tuesday night. Winds will remain strong across much of the Bering with gale force winds persisting through Wednesday morning.

Strong southwesterly flow persists through the morning hours of Wednesday, when the highest winds, (gale force) are expected across Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta. Widespread precipitation is also expected as the front enters the western Alaska coastline through Wednesday afternoon.

There are early indications of a new low forming near the Western Aleutians Thursday morning, but model agreement is low concerning the strength and location of this feature.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday night through Monday)...

The long term forecast for the Southern Alaska will begin with a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska sliding east as a shortwave trough rounds the base of a longwave upper-level trough situated over the Bering and moves over Southwest Alaska. Models quickly diverge with regard to the evolution of this system, adding plenty of uncertainty right at the beginning of the long term forecast. All guidance has the development of a surface low near the AKPen by Friday as the shortwave deepens. However, both the GEM and EC try to hold onto the downstream ridging longer, driving the low and its moisture into Southcentral. The GFS pushes the ridge south and provides a more progressive solution with the low tracking east with only scattered showers along the western slopes of the interior and coastal mountains. This system then exits to the east late Saturday.

Sunday may offer a reprieve from any extensive cloud cover and/or shower activity across the Southern Mainland. But, again, all models are struggling with the track of various shortwaves embedded within the longwave trough. While guidance shows a ridge trying to build north from the North Pacific and western Gulf, the EC and GEM quickly move the ridge axis east over the eastern Gulf. This solution would place the entirety of the Southern Mainland on the back side of the ridge with the resultant southwesterly flow lending to a more unsettled pattern with various waves moving along the Aleutian Chain and across the AKPen and Kodiak Island. The result would be more cloud cover and chances for rain across the region. The GFS is the more amplified solution, with a more northerly building ridge remaining in place longer. This result would slow any upstream storm systems and likely result in a more northerly storm track, keeping conditions much more tranquil across the Southern Mainland. Given the consistency of the GFS and a trend of the EC and GEM ensembles leaning more toward the GFS, the long term is weighted more toward the stronger ridge solution.

For the Aleutians and Bering, the longwave trough situated over the region will like keep conditions cool and unsettled through the long term. Any ridging between storm systems would be brief, with the best chance for high pressure over the Bering late Friday into Saturday. Any warmer air associated with the ridge, though, would likely result in widespread stratus and fog due to the warmer air riding over the cold open waters.

-TM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. Expect light winds except variable and gusty near showers and the very isolated thunderstorm this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish early this evening.

-CC

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Kodiak
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:42 AM AKDT     8.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:50 PM AKDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM AKDT     5.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kodiak, Port of Kodiak, Alaska, Tide feet

Kodiak
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM AKDT     8.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:52 PM AKDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM AKDT     5.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kodiak, Women's Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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