Friday, September20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:05PM Friday September 20, 2019 12:08 PM AKDT (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 418 Am Akdt Fri Sep 20 2019
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Today..E wind increasing to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 25 kt becoming sw late. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Showers.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Mon..E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Tue..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 201958
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
1158 am akdt Fri sep 20 2019

Update We could not ignore morning trends. By 8 or 9 am, it had
become clear that winds across the south needed gusts at least to
40 mph. But a more concerning trend quickly emerged. By mid
morning social media of wind damage and obs to 50 mph demanded a
quick and thorough rethinking the forecast for the afternoon over
juneau. Jets MAX at all levels by this afternoon with a general
increase in winds each higher levels, and also the region of
greater cyclonic curvature at 500 mb presses eastward from the
northeast gulf into the northern panhandle this afternoon. This
all breeds instability in the form of more efficient wind transfer
to the surface, which we have already witnessed. We elected to
issue a high wind warning through 7 pm for juneau.

Increasing southerly component to winds through the lynn canal
region suggest increasing precipitation rates for the taiya river
basin. We upgraded the flood watch to a flood advisory. In
addition, discussions are underway on streams across the central
panhandle and how to handle them. Stay tuned.

Discussion Relatively quickly this morning, we began to gather
that winds were underrepresented across the south. More
importantly we began to verify 50 mph gusts across juneau. Models
indicate that the strongest low level jets track across the region
this afternoon. Rather than be caught off guard, we issued a high
wind warning for juneau for gusts around 60 mph through 7 pm this
evening. Jets at all levels rise this afternoon with higher winds
aloft. This breeds instability and more efficient momentum
transfer to the surface. In addition, 500 mb charts indicate that
the more cyclonic region of the jet migrates eastward into the
northern panhandle and over juneau this afternoon. And this will
be the most concerning period of wind (and rain for flooding, see

In addition, we upgraded the flood watch for the taiya river to
flood advisory for minor flooding along the chilkoot trail tonight
into Saturday morning. Discussions are underway for the
possibility of other statements being issued. Stay tuned.

Short term... A strong weather front is over the eastern gulf and
panhandle this morning and will continue to affect the region
through the short-term forecast period. Many locations have
already seen moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds of 35mph. The
cape suckling buoy (46082) has already seen a peak gust of 51kt,
so the storm warning remains in effect for that area early this
morning. Expect both wind and rainfall to increase throughout the
day, with peak conditions in yakutat now thru mid-day; sitka mid-
morning thru afternoon; juneau mid-morning thru early evening;
southern panhandle late afternoon thru evening. The haines skagway
area will see wind gusts increasing to 40 mph by late afternoon,
then continuing through the night as the pressure orientation
becomes more favorable with wind there after the main part of the
front has passed.

Still looking at 2-4 inches of rain with this system through
tonight. Based on how rivers streams reacted to the last front, some
nearing bankfull is a possibility. The taiya river has the greatest
likelihood of going above flood stage, so a watch remains in effect
for that area. Otherwise, ponding of water in low lying areas and on
roadways is likely.

The low pressure center assoc with today's front will approach pws
late tonight, then linger just offshore through Saturday. This low
position will keep the region under swly onshore flow. This along
with CAA behind the front, typically is a set up for numerous
showers, so look for wet weather to continue into the weekend.

Models remain in good agreement with the front. They deepened the
low slightly, so confidence in strong wind is high. Increased some
wind gusts and fine-tuned timing of peak winds.

Long term... Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday
the weather will be most active during the first half of the long
range period, then a quieter pattern is becoming more likely
during the latter part. A strong occluded front will move NE into
the area Sun night into mon. Looking like a significant low will
form and move nne into the gulf by Mon morning, then curve back
to the W and merge with the original parent low that will be
moving E into the gulf during mon. This combined low should move
across the gulf and through SE ak tue. After that, there may be a
couple of weaker systems that might move in toward midweek, then
looking like late week into the weekend will see upper ridging
developing over much of the gulf and SE ak. Used mainly the 12z
gfs to handle things through 00z tue, then wpc nbm after that. Did
use 21z SREF to help with pops through late Sun night.

One of the main model issues is how far E the developing low will
track before it curves back and merges with the parent low. 12z gfs
represented a middle ground compromise, taking low into the
central gulf, with the 12z canadian further W and the 12z ecmwf
further e. The timing of the occluded front moving onshore was
slowed some. Overall, system looks fairly wet and windy, but with
the main upper level jet sinking S fairly early in the period, a
prolonged heavy rain event is less likely with the front. May get
some heavier precip Mon night into Tue as the combined low moves e
and onshore flow increases.

Precip chances look like they will decrease for the latter half
of the long term as upper ridging takes over across the area.

Still some important amplitude and positional differences to work
out with the placement of the ridge axis, so cannot completely
remove mention of precip further out yet.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 7 pm akdt this evening for akz017-027.

High wind warning until 7 pm akdt this evening for akz025.

Strong wind until 1 pm akdt this afternoon for akz023.

Strong wind until 10 pm akdt this evening for akz021.

Strong wind from 4 pm akdt this afternoon through late tonight
for akz019.

Areal flood advisory until 1 pm akdt Saturday for akz018.

Strong wind from 4 pm akdt this afternoon through late tonight
for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz013-031>036-041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-012-021-022-053.

Jwa ferrin rwt
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi63 min 54°F 53°F999 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi59 min ENE 19 G 27 50°F 994 hPa50°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi43 min ESE 6 G 11 53°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK25 mi76 minE 105.00 miRain Fog/Mist54°F51°F94%998.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------W10--W7--Calm----------------------E15--E8--E10
1 day ago--Calm--SW6--4--SW10----------------------SW10------SW12
2 days ago--Calm----W10----W10----------------------Calm--SW7--SW12

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.