Marine Weather and Tides
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 6:36AM||Sunset 7:05PM||Friday September 20, 2019 12:08 PM AKDT (20:08 UTC)||Moonrise 8:47PM||Moonset 1:16PM||Illumination 58%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AKHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for -  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxak67 pajk 201958|
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
1158 am akdt Fri sep 20 2019
Update We could not ignore morning trends. By 8 or 9 am, it had
become clear that winds across the south needed gusts at least to
40 mph. But a more concerning trend quickly emerged. By mid
morning social media of wind damage and obs to 50 mph demanded a
quick and thorough rethinking the forecast for the afternoon over
juneau. Jets MAX at all levels by this afternoon with a general
increase in winds each higher levels, and also the region of
greater cyclonic curvature at 500 mb presses eastward from the
northeast gulf into the northern panhandle this afternoon. This
all breeds instability in the form of more efficient wind transfer
to the surface, which we have already witnessed. We elected to
issue a high wind warning through 7 pm for juneau.
Increasing southerly component to winds through the lynn canal
region suggest increasing precipitation rates for the taiya river
basin. We upgraded the flood watch to a flood advisory. In
addition, discussions are underway on streams across the central
panhandle and how to handle them. Stay tuned.
Discussion Relatively quickly this morning, we began to gather
that winds were underrepresented across the south. More
importantly we began to verify 50 mph gusts across juneau. Models
indicate that the strongest low level jets track across the region
this afternoon. Rather than be caught off guard, we issued a high
wind warning for juneau for gusts around 60 mph through 7 pm this
evening. Jets at all levels rise this afternoon with higher winds
aloft. This breeds instability and more efficient momentum
transfer to the surface. In addition, 500 mb charts indicate that
the more cyclonic region of the jet migrates eastward into the
northern panhandle and over juneau this afternoon. And this will
be the most concerning period of wind (and rain for flooding, see
In addition, we upgraded the flood watch for the taiya river to
flood advisory for minor flooding along the chilkoot trail tonight
into Saturday morning. Discussions are underway for the
possibility of other statements being issued. Stay tuned.
Short term... A strong weather front is over the eastern gulf and
panhandle this morning and will continue to affect the region
through the short-term forecast period. Many locations have
already seen moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds of 35mph. The
cape suckling buoy (46082) has already seen a peak gust of 51kt,
so the storm warning remains in effect for that area early this
morning. Expect both wind and rainfall to increase throughout the
day, with peak conditions in yakutat now thru mid-day; sitka mid-
morning thru afternoon; juneau mid-morning thru early evening;
southern panhandle late afternoon thru evening. The haines skagway
area will see wind gusts increasing to 40 mph by late afternoon,
then continuing through the night as the pressure orientation
becomes more favorable with wind there after the main part of the
front has passed.
Still looking at 2-4 inches of rain with this system through
tonight. Based on how rivers streams reacted to the last front, some
nearing bankfull is a possibility. The taiya river has the greatest
likelihood of going above flood stage, so a watch remains in effect
for that area. Otherwise, ponding of water in low lying areas and on
roadways is likely.
The low pressure center assoc with today's front will approach pws|
late tonight, then linger just offshore through Saturday. This low
position will keep the region under swly onshore flow. This along
with CAA behind the front, typically is a set up for numerous
showers, so look for wet weather to continue into the weekend.
Models remain in good agreement with the front. They deepened the
low slightly, so confidence in strong wind is high. Increased some
wind gusts and fine-tuned timing of peak winds.
Long term... Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday
the weather will be most active during the first half of the long
range period, then a quieter pattern is becoming more likely
during the latter part. A strong occluded front will move NE into
the area Sun night into mon. Looking like a significant low will
form and move nne into the gulf by Mon morning, then curve back
to the W and merge with the original parent low that will be
moving E into the gulf during mon. This combined low should move
across the gulf and through SE ak tue. After that, there may be a
couple of weaker systems that might move in toward midweek, then
looking like late week into the weekend will see upper ridging
developing over much of the gulf and SE ak. Used mainly the 12z
gfs to handle things through 00z tue, then wpc nbm after that. Did
use 21z SREF to help with pops through late Sun night.
One of the main model issues is how far E the developing low will
track before it curves back and merges with the parent low. 12z gfs
represented a middle ground compromise, taking low into the
central gulf, with the 12z canadian further W and the 12z ecmwf
further e. The timing of the occluded front moving onshore was
slowed some. Overall, system looks fairly wet and windy, but with
the main upper level jet sinking S fairly early in the period, a
prolonged heavy rain event is less likely with the front. May get
some heavier precip Mon night into Tue as the combined low moves e
and onshore flow increases.
Precip chances look like they will decrease for the latter half
of the long term as upper ridging takes over across the area.
Still some important amplitude and positional differences to work
out with the placement of the ridge axis, so cannot completely
remove mention of precip further out yet.
Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 7 pm akdt this evening for akz017-027.
High wind warning until 7 pm akdt this evening for akz025.
Strong wind until 1 pm akdt this afternoon for akz023.
Strong wind until 10 pm akdt this evening for akz021.
Strong wind from 4 pm akdt this afternoon through late tonight
Areal flood advisory until 1 pm akdt Saturday for akz018.
Strong wind from 4 pm akdt this afternoon through late tonight
Marine... Gale warning for pkz013-031>036-041>043-051-052.
Small craft advisory for pkz011-012-021-022-053.
Jwa ferrin rwt
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Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK||24 mi||63 min||54°F||53°F||999 hPa|
|CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK||27 mi||59 min||ENE 19 G 27||50°F||994 hPa||50°F|
|BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK||50 mi||43 min||ESE 6 G 11||53°F|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK||25 mi||76 min||E 10||5.00 mi||Rain Fog/Mist||54°F||51°F||94%||998.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for PAEL
Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||SW||SW||SW||SW|
|2 days ago||Calm||W||W||Calm||SW||SW |
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