Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:10PM Friday February 21, 2020 2:35 PM AKST (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 2:53PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 417 Am Akst Fri Feb 21 2020
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Today..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain showers.
Tonight..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain showers in the evening, then snow showers late.
Sat..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Snow showers in the morning.
Sat night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Snow showers.
Sun..NE wind 15 kt becoming w. Seas 10 ft.
Mon..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Tue..E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 211448 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 548 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

SHORT TERM. Onshore flow continues aloft across the gulf into the panhandle and this is expected to continue into Saturday when the showers may taper off slightly as the pattern alters. Out over the central gulf a low just to the south of the gulf will be moving east to the British Columbia coast. A low in the northern gulf will continue to spread showers into the northern portion of the panhandle, Saturday evening into Sunday. A weak trough stretched out over the eastern portion of the gulf between the two lows. The air mass moving in is cooler than the one in place so expect to see a cool down at the surface and most of the precipitation to shift over to snow showers.

Not expected to see any significant accumulations from snow showers, unless they decide to train over the same location repeatedly. Generally expecting snowfall accumulations to top out at 2 to 4 inches for a day once they do the switch over.

The pressure gradient over the northern panhandle weakens this evening, until then winds of 20 to 30 mph with gust to 40 mph are expected in Skagway and along the Klondike highway. The winds then will diminish to around 15 mph. Saturday evening/night models are indicating a weak feature approaching the south central panhandle, and that looks to tighten again and flip the gradient so switched the Lynn Canal back to north and increase back to 20-25 kt.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/ Small split flow upper level pattern over the panhandle with an upstream trough starts out the long term period on Sun. This is eventually replaced by a ridge by Mon. This pattern for the early part of the long range has not changed much from the previous forecast from yesterday. It is what happens after this point that has seen some changes. Yesterday there was a disagreement between the ECMWF and the GFS (with support from ensembles and wpc) on how an upper ridge over the state will evolve, and what it would mean for the panhandle later in the week. Today, the ECMWF has surrendered to the GFS idea of the upper ridge pinching off into a cut off high over eastern Russia while a strong surface front approaches the Gulf and panhandle from the S mid next week. Forecast confidence for the mid week period has improved as a result with most models favoring the warmer wetter scenario for the mid week period, but timing issues still remain.

Overall, the general forecast trends are a cold start to the late weekend and early next week as the westerly flow continues to pump gulf-modified cold air into the panhandle. 850 mb temps will be around -9 to -12C through Mon evening, plenty cold enough for snow for most areas. Some weaker lows and troughs will be moving through the area during this time so some snow accumulation is not out of the question for many areas. The sticking point is how much snow will various areas get. The details or timing and position for the individual lows and troughs is sketchy at best right now so best idea is a few inches with the possibility of higher or lower amounts depending on where showers track and their intensity. Into mid week, the trends become warmer and wetter as a strong front moves in from the south. Guidance is favoring gale force winds along the front as well as temperatures warm enough for rain for most areas. Orientation and timing of the front remain a problem however so forecast confidence is lacking in that area. Favored WPC and NBM for any needed updates today.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ018. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-035-036-041>043- 051>053.



Bezenek/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi54 min 39°F 42°F1001.6 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi86 min W 18 G 24 37°F 999.5 hPa31°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi70 min S 5.1 G 8 39°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK25 mi1.8 hrsW 1012.00 miOvercast39°F32°F75%1000 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE7--SE15------------------------------W8--W15W9W10
1 day agoW10W10--Calm------------------------------5--E9--E14
2 days ago--E12--E12------------------------------W8--W10----

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.