Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. George, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:08PM Friday September 20, 2019 2:49 AM AKDT (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 1:25PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AK
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location: 57.89, -167.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 200102
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
502 pm akdt Thu sep 19 2019

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level trough over the eastern bering sea, with a
ridge over the yukon territory. This is bringing moist southwesterly
flow aloft to all of southern alaska, and some showers to much of
the area. There is a strong surface low rapidly forming south of
kodiak island, and moving toward the northeast into the gulf of
alaska. There is a flat upper level ridge over the central and
eastern bering. There is a trough and a developing surface low
over the far western bering moving eastward.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in good agreement. There are some timing
issues with a low that moves from the northern bering Friday night
into southwest alaska on Saturday, but this low is not real strong
and the forecast implications are minor. The forecast confidence
is higher than normal with the exception of this bering southwest
low.

Aviation
Panc... Steady rain with the next storm system will develop this
evening. Cross barrier flow will initially maintainVFR conditions.

However, this will quickly weaken overnight as the deepening low
over the gulf lifts northward toward the eastern kenai peninsula.

While the low doesn't quite move to the "sweet spot" for heavy
precipitation in anchorage, still expect to get under a portion of
the deformation band ahead of the low. Thus, will likely drop to
MVFR ceiling and visibility as heavier rain moves in early Friday
morning. Intensity will then diminish by 00z Saturday, though
continued cyclonic flow aloft will keep some light rain in the
area. This could also lead to ifr clouds in the vicinity, though
would expect most of these clouds to form near the mountains.

Fire weather
Widespread wetting rains are once again expected across
southcentral with this next storm. The big difference from
previous storms will be the storm track, with a low tracking
into prince william sound. This event will be much more favorable
for significant rainfall across the copper river basin.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2: tonight
through Saturday)...

widespread wetting rains from an incoming low are making their way
into southcentral this afternoon. The shower activity over
anchorage has moved west of town for now, but is expected to
refill in on radar over the next few hours. The radar is already
showing rain moving into cook inlet and the gulf coast around
homer and seward. Steadier rain will overspread all of southcentral
tonight. The low causing all of this rain is centered well south
of kodiak right now. It will intensify as it moves into the
northern gulf south of seward Friday morning. This will cause
strong winds associated with the barrier jet to increase overnight
along the coast mainly from hinchinbrook entrance eastward, where
a storm warning is in effect. The center of the low will move
into prince william sound Friday evening, which will keep light
rain ongoing through anchorage, the matanuska valley, the gulf
coast, and the copper river basin. This will be a very good track
for rainfall in the copper river basin, so much more rain is
expected there with this low than the previous rainfall event.

On Saturday, the low will circulate back into the northern gulf,
as the associated moisture only very gradually shifts eastward
with time. This will lead to strong westerly winds ongoing through
the barren islands and southern cook inlet from Friday right into
Saturday. Gradual clearing is expected from west to east during
the day Saturday, mainly over the susitna valley and cook inlet,
taking until late in the day at the earliest to reach anchorage
and the matanuska valley. With the clearing skies, colder air will
move in as well behind the low, with a real threat for freezing
temperatures in interior areas of the kenai peninsula, east
anchorage, and the mat-su valleys Saturday night. Where
precipitation persists longer in the copper river basin, snow
showers are possible Saturday night.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3; tonight
through Sunday)...

rain will lift northeast from bristol bay to the middle and upper
kuskokwim valley through the overnight hours as a weak trough
tracks inland along the alaska range. For the lower kuskokwim
valley and y-k delta, clearing this evening will once again allow
for patchy fog to develop as overnight temperatures drop to near
freezing. A cool, northwesterly flow along the backside of the
trough will persist through late Friday as scattered showers
linger in the higher elevations. Showers and cloud cover diminish
overnight Friday into the first half of Saturday as a ridge tracks
over the region. Overnight lows will again drop to a few degrees
either side of the freezing mark as patchy fog settles along the
kuskokwim valley. The ridge slides quick to the east on Saturday
as the next frontal system approaches the coast. This system will
bring gusty southerly winds and rain to the kuskokwim delta before
lifting north and east in response to a stronger low moving from
the central aleutians to the akpen. This second system looks to
bring another round of widespread rain across the akpen and
bristol bay up to kuskokwim bay as it sweeps a front along the
coast on Sunday before tracking southeast away from the region.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3;
tonight through Sunday)...

northwesterly small-craft winds will develop from the eastern
bering south across the eastern aleutians and akpen by early
tomorrow in response to a tightening pressure gradient between a
deepening trough in the gulf and a ridge building and moving east
over the aleutians. By late Friday these winds will increase to
gales over the coastal waters south of the akpen. A low over the
northern bering will move to saint matthew island by Friday night
with rain and small-craft winds stretching from the pribilofs to
the y-k delta coast. Rain and winds from this system then diminish
on Saturday as the low moves to norton sound. For the aleutians,
the eastward moving ridge will reach the akpen by Saturday as a low
moves south of the western aleutians in its wake. The center of
the low in expected to be near nikolski by late Saturday with its
associated occluded front draped from dutch harbor to cold bay.

Widespread rain and small-craft winds will accompany the front
along with an area of northerly gales wrapping around the
backside of the low. The low makes moves to near cold bay by
Sunday as its front advances to the southwest coast. Behind the
low, the northwesterly winds strengthen to strong gales with
the possibility of storm-force winds developing south of dutch
harbor.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Starting Sunday, winds in the gulf will diminish as a low exits to
the east. Small craft advisory level seas driven by fresh swell
will persist Sunday morning, but likely diminish by the afternoon.

Attention turns to a low currently developing south of the
central aleutians. Gales are expected over the central and eastern
aleutians by Sunday, then models continue to project a triple
point low developing late Sunday into Monday that would bring
gales into the gulf. There's uncertainty with the path strength
of the secondary low, but at this point confidence is growing that
there will be gales in the gulf Monday, possibly persisting into
Tuesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
A relatively progressive pattern will continue as a low traverses
the aleutians, bringing widespread precipitation and gusty winds
to the aleutians Sunday. The southwest mainland will probably see
some precipitation from this system, especially over the akpen...

but the primary impacts will be felt over the aleutians. The low
is expected to track into the gulf. Thus, as the low progresses
eastward Sunday into Monday, precipitation is expected over kodiak
island and the north gulf coast. Farther north, east northeast
flow will prevail and relatively dry weather is expected. An
arctic trough over the bering strait will strengthen by midweek,
maintaining relatively cold conditions and unsettled weather over
southern alaska. Another low will develop in the central bering
Thursday into Friday, but it's too early for confidence in
details.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storm warning 119. Gale warning 120 130 131 132 138 150.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Jw
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tm
marine long term... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for 5NV

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Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.