Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:58AM||Sunset 6:25PM||Saturday February 29, 2020 4:51 AM AKST (13:51 UTC)||Moonrise 9:10AM||Moonset 12:00AM||Illumination 34%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AKHourly EDIT Help
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FXAK68 PAFC 290252 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 552 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020
ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A weak upper short wave moved south across the Copper River Basin this morning and produced a few snow showers. Subsidence with ridging on the backside of this wave gave rise to some stratus and patchy fog over the Copper River and near Cordova. Stratus and fog across the Anchorage Bowl and western Kenai dissipated by the late morning hours with most areas across Southcentral and the SW Mainland mostly Sunny. A strong low pressure center moved just north of the central Aleutians this afternoon with its associated occluded front heading north across the Bering Sea. A secondary low center is likely developing under a strong upper level jet over the trailing frontal boundary over the North Pacific. Rain and snow with gusty winds were evident across the Aleutian chain.
MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in relatively good agreement with the synoptic fields. The challenge will be subtle changes in timing and track of the low and front. For now will lean toward a blend of the GFS and NAM for synoptic fields and hand edits and higher resolution NAMNEST for local effects across Southcentral.
AVIATION. PANC . IFR to LIFR ceiling/visibilities are expected again overnight as stable conditions develop. Ceiling/visibilities will see some improvement by the afternoon hours on Sat. Light winds will persist through Sat morning before becoming north and increasing some Sat afternoon. LLWS is a possibility beginning Sat evening as winds above the surface become southeasterly and strengthen.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).
A strong front will approach from the southwest Saturday afternoon. Snow will develop south to north along the Kenai at this time, with blowing snow likely along the Sterling Highway between Clam Gulch and Anchor Point. Similarly, blowing snow is expected in the Portage Valley as well as Turnagain Pass. Travel will be potentially difficult Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning and as such, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas.
A Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect for the Susitna Valley, with snow accumulations of 6 to 12+ inches expected on Sunday. The higher end of this range is most likely in the Talkeetna area.
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley will see less snow overall than the aforementioned locations, however approximately 6 inches are likely before the associated low departs to the east on Monday night.
The Prince William Sound area will likewise see significant accumulations, with over a foot expected in Whittier and Valdez through Monday night. Gusty winds will accompany the snowfall through Thompson Pass.
The low will stall in the northern Gulf by Tuesday and snow is likely to continue across coastal areas. However, a cooler and drier pattern will begin to develop over the interior with offshore flow developing as high pressure begins to build by mid- week.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3). Dry and cold conditions will continue tonight as high pressure over the area slowly slides east. On Saturday a front associated with a strong low over the Bering will push into southwest Alaska. This will bring considerable snow and blowing snow to the area, rapidly spreading northward during the day. Easterly winds will also increase, becoming southerly over the Bristol Bay area Saturday. This will likely cause a mix of precipitation types (rain and snow), which will change back to all snow on Sunday as cold air advection begins. On Sunday night and Monday, colder and dryer air will push into southwest Alaska, with snow lingering near the Aleutian and Alaska ranges due to upslope flow and a slowly exiting trough.
SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3). A front associated with a low in the central/western Aleutians will push northward across the Bering Sea tonight and eastward across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. A much strong low and front will move into the central and eastern Aleutians late tonight. This low will move into the southern Bering south of the Pribilofs Saturday morning, with the low center near the Pribilofs Saturday evening. The low will then slide eastward across the eastern Bering and into southwest Alaska late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Considerable cold advection will push southward across the eastern Bering including the Pribilofs behind this low on Sunday, weakening Sunday night and Monday as the low moves further inland.
MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Mon through Wed).
Cold northerly flow returns to the Bering early next week. There is moderate confidence that another strong low approaches the western Aleutians by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile over the Gulf, southwesterly gales will persist through Monday. There is potential for embedded storm force winds. A low in the northern Gulf Monday night will create strong outflow winds in the usual places along the Alaska Peninsula (Gulf side) and Kamishak Bay at least through Wednesday. Storm force gusts are possible, especially through channeled terrain.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Tue through Fri).
There is mounting evidence for a highly progressive pattern across the Bering and southern Mainland next week. An upper level trough positioned over Mainland Alaska Tuesday afternoon quickly sinks southward over the Gulf by Wednesday morning. This allows a building upper level ridge over the Bering to move eastward Wednesday evening. One feature that model solutions have seemed to key in on is a stout upper level low interacting with the ridge over the Bering around Thursday. There is still plenty of uncertainty with this feature, but run to run consistency has allowed for increasing confidence in an active pattern for the end of the week.
AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 121 125 145 152 155 161. MARINE . Storm Warning 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176. Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 131 132 138 150 160 177 179 180 181 185. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . BL MARINE/LONG TERM . KO
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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