Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kodiak Station, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad, vertically stacked low remains over the Bering this afternoon, situated a couple hundred nautical miles west of the Pribilof Islands. Its surface front, occluded and weakening, continues to slowly push across interior Southwest Alaska with low clouds and rain across the Kuskokwim Valley.

Multiple shortwaves are rotating around this low as colder air aloft moves west to east across the Aleutian Chain, resulting in increased instability and areas of showers. The first of these waves is moving across the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, with rain showers and gusty southwesterly winds from east of Cold Bay to King Salmon and coastal Bristol Bay. This feature, like the occluded front, will lift into interior Southwest Alaska through Monday morning with another round of showers for the Kuskokwim Valley. Patchy fog may linger along the immediate coast in the wake of the trough.

A second shortwave will will then track across the Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska on Monday with a deepening compact surface low lifting from south of Cold Bay Monday afternoon to south of Togiak late Monday night. Gusty southeasterly winds and rain will be on the increase with this system, with the strongest winds out of the Kamishak Gap and across the Kuskokwim Valley late in the day. Gale-force winds will wrap around the low over the coastal waters.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the next deepening upper low moves into the Aleutians with a front reaching the Southwest Coast by Wednesday evening. While the current low over the Bering is weakening, general troughing will continue to bring multiple disturbances across the Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska on an almost daily basis. Long term model guidance shows little to no change in the overall pattern, with unsettled weather and rain chances persisting into the latter half of next week.

-TM/BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf will remain in place through the middle of next week. This will continue to support unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska.

By midweek, the focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka and track eastward. Model guidance is now in better agreement, bringing the low across the Aleutian Chain before continuing into the Gulf of Alaska, remaining south of the mainland. Unsettled conditions will persist across the Aleutians as this system and its associated front progress eastward through the end of the week.

LM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong southeasterly winds are expected continue past midnight, though the winds will not be as strong as yesterday. These gusty southeasterly winds will then redevelop again Monday late morning and persist into the evening.