Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kodiak Station, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night)...

A weakening low in the northern Bering Sea is pushing a decaying front through Southwest Alaska this morning, leading to rain showers for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay.
These showers clear out as the front lifts north and east today. A weak shortwave tracking over the Kuskokwim Delta is producing light snow which will lift north to the Yukon Delta today. With surface temperatures near freezing, some light accumulations of less than an inch of snow are possible this morning. A brief break in precipitation is expected today across Southwest Alaska as a shortwave ridge quickly passes through.

Then, a North Pacific low skirting south of the Aleutian Chain today pushes its front from the western/central Aleutians, where it is producing easterly gales and light to moderate rain, north and east through the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, to reach the Pribilof Islands and the Southwest coast today. With colder air in place over Southwest Alaska, precipitation with this front may fall as snow during the early morning hours on Tuesday, and in the Pribilof Islands almost all of the precipitation is expected to fall as snow (though rain could mix in at times for Saint George).

As the low center tracks to the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, the front pivots around the low, remaining over the Pribilof Islands, leading to a long duration light snow event for Saint Paul.
Temperatures hover at to just above freezing, so accumulations will be limited, though up to 2 inches of snow is forecast in total through Wednesday. For Southwest Alaska, the front lifts quickly through and precipitation transitions to rain and becomes showery on Tuesday. Showery conditions continue through mid-week, with diurnal shifts in precipitation type, with snow possible during the early morning hours. Otherwise, expect it to fall as rain. Similar conditions are expected for the Aleutians/Bering Sea, with northerly winds bringing cooler air on the back side of the low on Wednesday. This may lead to more widespread snow showers, with the best chances over the western and central Aleutians.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A broad elongated trough with a NW - SE axis stretching from Siberia to the Gulf of Alaska will keep the eastern Bering Sea and most of western Alaska under low pressure for the start of the long term forecast period. An embedded upper low will swing across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing moderate to heavy precipitation to the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound on Thursday. The precipitation type will be predominately rain at sea level and heavy snow at higher elevations. This system will weaken and slowly meander towards the southeastern Gulf, allowing for coastal showers to persist through Friday while widespread cloudy conditions will continue for most of the state. A second low will lift up into the Gulf at the end of the weekend, likely bringing another round of increased onshore flow and coastal precipitation. At this time, there is still model disagreement about how far north this system will track, which will primarily impact marine zone wind magnitudes. We will keep an eye on how this progresses in the coming days.

AVIATION

PANC...Occasional light rain will persist throughout the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Winds are expected to become southerly by around noon and then remain southerly through tomorrow. Another shot of rain is expected tonight, albeit brief, followed by a day of potentially strong, gusty southeast winds out of the Turnagain Arm on Tuesday with the next system. Ceilings will generally be VFR, but may dip into MVFR territory today with the rain.

-Brown