Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ouzinkie, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday afternoon)...

Key Message: A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the northern Bristol Bay coast including the cities of Dillingham, Togiak, and Manokotak from 10AM Saturday to 4AM Sunday. Gusts up to 50 mph are expected for these areas.

Discussion:

As of 4PM this afternoon, satellite imagery overlaid with surface analysis shows a slowly dying small craft front draped across the Western Aleutians that has essentially come to a stall. Surface ridging blocking this front to the east across the central Bering has been nudged somewhat to the northwest, which has allowed for Bristol Bay, the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and the Eastern Aleutians to see a reprieve from fog and low stratus. Meanwhile, a North Pacific low with a gale force front and a few areas of storm force wind gusts with rainfall is closing in on the AKPEN from the south. To the north, current radar returns show convective showers breaking out across interior Southwest Alaska where there has been clearing with temperatures warming well into the 70s today. Later this afternoon and evening, a few isolated wet thunderstorms are likely to develop and generally move westward as the evening progresses.

Breezy easterly to northeasterly winds will steadily increase through the late afternoon and evening hours for the North Pacific side of the AKPEN, with a swath of gales streaming southwestward out of the Shelikof Strait to just south of Sand Point. Though the strongest winds are likely to stay offshore and just south of the AKPEN, winds across the central AKPEN are still on track to gust up to 40 mph Saturday morning. As the front slows down and weakens as it crosses the AKPEN, rainfall amounts start to really add up for Chignik where the northeasterly wind direction and the higher terrain to the west of the area will lead to upslope enhancement.
By noon Saturday or so as winds turn more easterly with this front, winds funneling through Kamishak Gap will reach the Dillingham area and then flow outwards across Bristol Bay. Winds look to peak Saturday afternoon for Dillingham, where winds are now expected to gust up to 50 mph before decreasing through Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. Also, for Saturday afternoon, the low weakens/fills and becomes quasi-stationary just south of the AKPEN and lingers through the weekend with showers for the region. In total, anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of rain from now through the rest of the weekend is in store for Chignik.
Elsewhere, there is high confidence that rainfall amounts will be much lower and likely in the 0.2 to 0.4 inch range due to most of the moisture associated with this system being confined to the Pacific and Gulf coasts.

Meanwhile, to the east, models show that a Gulf low backing/retrograding northwestward will cross the northern AKPEN coastline sometime midday Sunday to Sunday afternoon. With downslope drying in lee of the western Alaska Range, convective activity for Sunday afternoon will likely shift northwestward and more so over the western Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta regions. The overall pattern quiets down early next week as shower activity and coverage decreases for the AKPEN and surface high pressure builds from west to east across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain.

-AM



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

Starting early next week, there will be an upper level trough over mainland Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska/Kodiak Island, with a ridge upstream over the Bering Sea/Aleutians. This will be the tail end of wet and windy weather across much of southern AK and bordering coastal waters, with showers and clouds lingering across much of the region. As we continue through the week, the high amplitude trough will exit eastward to Canada, leaving a weak flow regime with weak embedded features. The subtropical jetstream over the North Pacific will also weaken through the week, with a noted absence of strong storm systems. Thus, the pattern looks very "summer- like", with daily afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms over southern AK driven by surface heating and resulting instability and generally light winds across much of the Aleutian, Gulf and southern AK coastal waters. While the week will start out cloudy, expect increasing sunshine and warming temperatures through the week. High pressure will remain centered across the southern Bering and Aleutians, so widespread low clouds and fog will be common.

-SEB


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. A southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind is expected to clip West Anchorage and the terminal by late afternoon or early evening. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible this evening before the pressure gradient shifts and the Turnagain Arm bends away from the terminal and down Cook Inlet, likely between 1 AM and 3 AM. LLWS will be possible early Saturday morning as the surface winds become northerly while winds aloft remain southeasterly. The southeasterly winds off Turnagain Arm are expected to move back over the terminal Saturday afternoon.