Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ouzinkie, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday afternoon)...

Areas of rain today will taper off through tonight/tomorrow morning. Generally warm and dry from tomorrow through Thursday, but a storm system moving into the Western Bering and Adak/Atka Wednesday evening will mark the beginning of a transition towards more unsettled weather. The primary hazards to monitor will be a 3-4 day stretch of warmer than usual temperatures (70-75 degrees)
for parts of Bristol Bay and interior Southwest. Otherwise, the fog forecast remains the most challenging aspect of the forecast.

Diving into the details... a front and its associated weak, elongated surface low is bringing rain as it slides southeastwards just to the west of the Pribilof Islands. Simultaneously, a low near Kodiak Island is bringing rain showers to the Lake Iliamna area and to the northern Alaska Peninsula. A tightening surface pressure gradient between a ridge in the Bering Sea and these two lows is leading to 20-30 kt winds, with gusts to 35 kt, along the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula.

As these lows move southwards and out of the area tonight, expect a return to drier conditions for tomorrow and Wednesday. For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, this will likely mean a return of low clouds and fog for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, a low coming from the west will displace the ridge eastwards, leading to widespread light to moderate rain and winds to 20-30 kt by Thursday.

For Southwest Alaska, tomorrow will mark the beginning of about 3-4 days of warmer temperatures as higher pressure builds in.
Compared to yesterday, models have trended a bit warmer, especially as a slowing down of the Bering Sea low will allow for the ridge to persist for a bit longer over Southwest Alaska. While much of Southwest will see daytime highs in the 60s to 70s, the areas to watch will be from Bristol Bay north to Kuskokwim Valley, where there will likely be a prolonged period of daytime highs above 70 degrees. For Bristol Bay, conditions like these occur about once a year, and typically towards the end of July. With more people out and about conducting subsistence activities, it's a good idea to plan for these warmer temperatures, especially as several days in a row of 70+ degree temperatures could lead to cumulative heat stress. The good news is that overnight lows will dip to 45-50 degrees, providing the opportunity for some cooling down overnight. We'll continue to monitor these conditions, especially as observed temperatures in recent days have been warmer than predicted. As such, it's possible that our forecast may trend warmer, and the threat of warmer temperatures could be more pronounced than currently anticipated. Stay tuned.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The trend towards warmer, drier conditions continues through the long term period as high pressure remains over much of mainland Alaska and the northern Gulf of Alaska. Broad troughing is forecast to slide across the southern Bering and Aleutians Friday through Saturday. While not particularly strong, intermittent rain chances are likely beneath and downstream of the trough, with the greatest chance for rain stretching from Unalaska and Saint Paul to coastal Southwest Alaska through Saturday. By Sunday into early next week, the low tracks into the North Pacific with its front remaining well south of the northern Gulf coast.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this evening. A few showers could move over the terminal during the remainder of the afternoon, but steadier rain should hold off until later tonight.
Gusty winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will gradually decrease this evening and mostly shut off by the early morning hours. Ceilings could drop into MVFR range as steady, light rain begins overnight tonight.