Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 9:28 PM Moonrise 10:36 AM   Moonset 4:04 AM

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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Thu - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu night - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri through Sat - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sun - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 160041 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 441 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

A strong upper level ridge has brought clear skies across most of Southcentral this afternoon. Later this evening, the ridge axis will shift east towards the AlCan border, allowing southerly flow to strengthen between the ridge to the east and a low over the Bering Sea. Cloud cover will begin to increase as moisture from the Gulf is pulled northward through Tuesday morning. However, any rain/snow will be focused on the windward side of high terrain for the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound.

Tuesday evening a more active pattern develops, as a large North Pacific low slowly progress north towards the AKPen through mid week. This low will advance a strong front and attendant moisture stream north into the western Gulf, spreading strong easterly gale force winds with storm force gusts across the southwestern two thirds of Gulf waters by Wednesday morning. The bigger impact from this system will be moderate to locally heavy precipitation rates spreading across Kodiak Island. Temperatures could be cold enough in the low to mid levels for initially a rain snow mix to move into Kodiak at sea level on Tuesday afternoon/evening, but otherwise steady, moderate rain is expected to begin around this time and persist into Thursday. Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches will be possible along the southeastern side of Kodiak Island.
Lighter rainfall amounts, generally less than an inch will be possible along the southeastern Kenai Peninsula during the same timeframe, including Seward.

Most of the remainder of Southcentral will remain dry but steadily cloudier through Wednesday night. Strong easterly gap winds are expected to develop along the Turnagain Arm Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA, AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

An upper-level trough parked over the Bering Sea continues to support the active pattern over the area. A compact low pressure system in the Bering Sea is quickly moving north out of the area.
However, on the eastern boundary of the low, a strong front is pushing up across Nunivak Island and across the Kuskokwim Delta, bringing gusty winds with snow, leading to blowing snow. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the area, with conditions expected to slowly begin improving by midnight tonight. Gusty southerly winds will continue pouring into the Kuskokwim Delta coast through the night, but by Tuesday morning the core of strongest winds will begin to weaken.

By Tuesday afternoon a lobe of the upper-level trough will begin diving out of the northern Bering. This will bring a shot of cool, dry, and gusty northerly winds into the Central Bering and Central Aleutians. Gusty winds from this push are expected to be most concentrated between Adak and Nikolski Tuesday night, however may shift eastward into Wednesday morning, bringing gusty northerly winds toward Unalaska and the Pribilof Islands. By Wednesday morning, gusty winds up to 55 mph on the southern side of the Aleutian Chain out of bays and passes will become more pronounced, and are expected to persist into Thursday morning.

However, in Southwest Alaska the precipitation will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday as the decaying frontal boundary becomes bolstered by a north Pacific low approaches the southern Alaska Peninsula late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This system represents part of the driving force behind the gusty winds in the Central Bering. For Southwest Alaska it will push strong and gusty easterly winds through the Kamishak Gap into interior Bristol Bay by early Wednesday and will maintain the moisture tap into the area. However, the air moving through the gap will be warmer, gradually shifting the reinforced precipitation from snow gradually to a rain/snow mix, and plain rain by Wednesday afternoon.
These gusty winds through Kamishak will likely continue into the end of the workweek, continuing the gradual warm-up in Southwest, shifting more of the widespread precipitation to rainfall particularly for the Greater Bristol Bay area.

-CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast begins late Thursday with a strong ridge of high pressure situated over the Yukon and a negatively tilted longwave trough extending southeast from the central Bering. A vertically stacked low well south of the Alaska Peninsula Thursday slowly lifts to the AKPen and eastern Aleutians through Friday.
A front attached to the low looks to remain nearly stationary near Kodiak Island, allowing moisture to continue to stream toward the island on southeasterly winds aloft from the eastern Pacific.
This moisture stream will likely result in several additional inches of rain for parts of Kodiak Island through Saturday before the front finally weakens and shears apart.

To the north, an inverted trough is the boundary between warmer air over Southwest Alaska and a colder airmass over the western half of the Bering and Aleutians. Precipitation will focus along the trough axis, with rain for Southwest and a mix of rain/snow to the west of the trough.

By Saturday, the ridge looks to extend across interior Alaska, suppressing the trough to the south, along the Aleutians and southern Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will likely lead to generally quiet conditions for much of interior Alaska, including the Southern Mainland. The exception would be along the immediate coast, where a front lifting toward the northern Gulf may bring some precipitation from Prince William Sound to the AKPen by Sunday or Monday.

TM

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Fox Bay
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Tue -- 02:54 AM AKDT     4.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:04 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:46 AM AKDT     8.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:35 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:40 PM AKDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:36 PM AKDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Kizhuyak Point
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Tue -- 02:26 AM AKDT     4.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM AKDT     7.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:35 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:12 PM AKDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:19 PM AKDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kizhuyak Point, Alaska, Tide feet

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