Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 10:40 PM Moonrise 8:12 AM   Moonset 2:10 AM

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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Thu - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu night - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri through Sat - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sun - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 130032 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 432 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Cumulus cloud development is apparent on satellite across the entire region. Reflectivity on radar points towards widely scattered showers, but reports of any rainfall have been light and dew point depressions suggest that many of the showers are virga.
Some of the cumulus is developing into cumulonimbus and those should produce rain that reaches the ground. Pressure is expected to increase over mainland Southcentral for the first half of this week, yielding to quieter weather overall. Southerly winds through Turnagain Arm, Cook Inlet, and the Copper River Valley will decrease tonight and remain light for most over the next couple days.

Weak upper level forcing combined with increasing breaks of sunshine and weak instability will produce isolated to scattered showers across the region. Meanwhile, a weak low and short-wave south of the eastern Aleutians this morning will track quickly along the base of the long-wave trough into the Gulf tonight. This will bring a quick shot of rain to Kodiak Island, mainly the east side of the island Monday morning. The low will remain offshore as it continues across the Gulf through Monday night, with little or no precipitation from this synoptic feature reaching the north Gulf coast.

As pressure rises over the next couple days and the Gulf low pushes east, coverage for showers will become more isolated on the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and MatSu Valley. Diurnally driven showers will continue to remain possible over the Copper River Basin. The warmest, sunniest, and driest day of the week should be Wednesday, ahead of the next front expected to reach the western Gulf late Thursday morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

A weak, elongated low south of the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon is producing areas of light rain and northerly small craft winds moving quickly toward the southern Gulf. Behind this low, quieter conditions and northerly flow spread across the Bering Sea and Aleutians, while a strong upper ridge builds into place behind the low.

This has not developed enough to produce lightning, as forecast soundings show a relatively warm, dry layer in the mid to upper levels that have kept showers low-topped today. Additional rounds of showers will be possible on Monday, mainly near the Alaska Range out ahead of a shortwave trough digging south around the developing Bering ridge. However, instability looks even more marginal on Monday, and thunderstorms are unlikely.

Attention shifts to a much stronger system poised to affect a large portion of the outlook area later in the week. By Monday, a strong 970s-980s mb low moving off of Kamchatka will extend a warm front into the western Aleutians, with southerly winds in the gale force range behind the initial front across the western Aleutians and Bering A cold front will move in quickly behind the warm front and begin to occlude it on Tuesday morning, while the parent low moves farther into the far northern Bering Sea. Gale force southerly winds will spread east towards the central Aleutians and Pribilofs, while winds remain strong but turn westerly behind the cold front. Bands of of light rain following both frontal features should also shift from the western Aleutians to the central Aleutians and past the Pribilofs on Tuesday.

By Tuesday night, the main low and trailing front will begin to weaken as the low center moves up towards St Lawrence Island.
Even so, guidance is beginning to show the wind field holding on for longer, and there is potential for 30 to 40 mph southerly winds to reach the Southwest coast as early as Tuesday afternoon, especially near the Kuskokwim Delta. It is too early at this time to determine exact potential for higher than normal water levels moving in with this system. However, coastal communities across the Kuskokwim Delta should continue to monitor the forecast for updates over the next couple days while we continue to follow this strong spring low pressure system.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

For Southcentral...

The long term for southcentral Alaska will begin with ridging in place across much of the eastern mainland, resulting in fairly dry conditions and temperatures at or just above climatological average.
Afternoon showers will be possible during the afternoon in close proximity to the mountains, particularly the Wrangells. Deep upper- level troughing then shifts east across southcentral Alaska by Friday, bringing increased cloudiness, coastal rain, and high- elevation snow to the area. Present forecast guidance keeps this system only precipitating on Gulf communities and in the mountains, though there is a chance the system will shift north, bringing wider spreading rains to the mainland. Overall, temperatures will continue to rise, with daytime highs warming with the exception of Friday, which is likely to be the coolest day of the forecast period.

For Southwest and the Bering/Aleutians...

By Thursday, confidence is high troughing will exist across the eastern Bering, Aleutians, and into southwest AK. However, models diverge significantly with regards to potent shortwave trough rounding the base of the longwave trough. The 12z operational GFS run brings a low into southwest low that would result in the potential for low-elevation snow and windy conditions. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian models move that energy a bit farther south.
Upper-level ridging is likely to build in behind the trough as it shifts east. The exception to this is across the western Aleutians, where continued storminess is likely.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm late this afternoon will continue to bend into the terminal with pressure gradients continuing to be favorable as a low pressure system passes south of Kodiak and re-orients the coastal ridge to the favorable east- to-west direction. Winds could gust between 20mph to 30mph this evening before dying down overnight. Winds turn light and out of the north Monday morning.

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Fox Bay
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Mon -- 12:17 AM AKDT     3.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:07 AM AKDT     9.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:29 PM AKDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM AKDT     7.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Kizhuyak Point
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Mon -- 04:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:50 AM AKDT     8.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:01 PM AKDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM AKDT     6.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kizhuyak Point, Alaska, Tide feet

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