Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elfin Cove, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A band of rain showers will move back into the northern gulf coast on Wednesday as a trough moves over the region.

- Drier conditions are expected to continue for the S Panhandle communities through Wednesday.

- Rain chances increase late Wednesday through Thursday across the southern half of the panhandle as a more organized low pressure system moves out of the N Pacific towards Dixon Entrance.

SHORT TERM
/Through Thursday/...An upper level low near Kodiak looks to slowly drift eastward and deepen slightly through Thursday. Multiple surface features are expected to develop along multiple shortwave troughs moving along the upper level low, on the southern and eastern flank. While not feature expect perhaps the system on Thursday is particularly impressive, persistent clouds, a slight uptick on winds (up to 15 knots in the outer waters), and rain are expected to largely stay in the forecast.
For Wednesday, a weak trough is expected to develop in the northeastern gulf, bringing increased rain chances to the NE gulf coast and northern half of the panhandle. Not expecting much moisture to make it past the Chilkat Range, but a non zero chance to see at least measurable precipitation in Haines and Skagway.

For Thursday, a stronger system develops in the northern Pacific, moving eastward towards Haida Gwaii. The term "stronger" should be taken quite loosely, as this system is not expected to generate any higher winds than 25 knots, predominantly in Hecate Strait.
Clarence Strait, therefore, is not expecting to exceed 20 knots at this time, primarily south of Ketchikan, open to Dixon Entrance.
Rain chances are expected to remain mostly localized to the southern half of the panhandle, with precipitation largely cutoff around the Angoon area. Specifically, Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of Wales Island could see moderate rain showers, with chances around 60-80% at this time. While not currently represented in the official forecast, definitely seeing signs of easterly, drier winds downsloping over Juneau and Icy Strait, which could result in some clearing.

LONG TERM
/Friday through Monday/...The long term forecast is relatively benign through the weekend, with shower potential diminishing and warm temperatures taking hold. Rainfall in the southern panhandle from the remnants of the Thursday system will keep the southern panhandle wet through the morning, but skies look to open up through the latter half of the day. Isolated showers will be possible through the rest of the panhandle Friday as the low dips south and mid to upper level easterly flow continues. Included a very, very slight chance that a more developed BC thunderstorm makes it over the mountains and into Skagway or Haines.

Ridging over the gulf builds through the day, increasing gulf winds to a northwesterly fresh to strong breeze down the coast through the weekend. The panhandle looks to stay relatively dry Saturday, which will allow the southern and central panhandle to clear out. Some models are keeping the northern panhandle mostly cloudy, but thinking there will be a chance for breaks. Continued onshore flow over the weekend will allow for shower potential, but the chances remain low. With clearing skies for much of the panhandle, high temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s will be possible. This will also create potential for 10 to 15 kt sea breezes to increase through midday. A tightening pressure gradient over Northern Lynn Canal looks to increase winds through Taiya Inlet and into Skagway through the early afternoon of each day, which may bring winds up to 20 to 25 kts with any sea breeze influence. There is potential for showers to return next week, but with large discrepancies between models, confidence remains low for anything significant.

AVIATION
/Until 06Z Thursday/...An area of low pressure will continue to steer rain showers to the Northeast Gulf Coast, including PAYA through the 24-hour TAF period, keeping flight conditions in the MVFR/IFR category. In the Icy Strait Corridor, PAGS will begin to see light rain showers early Wednesday morning, which look to last through the forecast period. These look to bring CIGs down to within the MVFR flight category. For the Central Outer Coast, including PASI, remnants of a marine layer will keep CIGs in the MVFR/IFR category range through much of Wednesday morning, after which the marine layer gives way, raising conditions to VFR. For the Southern Outer Coast, including PAKW, the marine layer has solidly built back in this evening, which will remain in place through much of Wednesday morning, keeping keeping CIGs down in the MVFR/IFR category range. After that, the marine layer will retreat, improving conditions to the VFR flight category. For the remainder of the Panhandle, expect primarily VFR flight conditions with isolated or a slight chance of light rain showers on Wednesday. SFC winds & LLWS values will remain benign through the period.

MARINE
Inside (Inner Channels): So far, the strongest winds today have been in Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait near Ketchikan. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a stronger low pressure system will move southeast toward Haida Gwaii. This will lead to stronger southerly winds around 20 kts in Clarence Strait, and also bring easterly winds less than 10 kts to Sumner Strait. As the low pressure moves southeastward and weakens, winds will weaken for the inner channels.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system will form south of Yakutat Wednesday, and that will lead to some increase in winds, but winds are expected to remain less than 10kts. As a stronger low pressure system moves toward Haida Gwaii through the Gulf of Alaska, it will increase winds in southern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. As the low moves eastward, weakening winds are expected into the day Friday.

HYDROLOGY
Snow melt from above normal temperatures last weekend resulted in elevated stream flow for rivers across the Chilkat Valley area. While temperatures will cool somewhat this week, snow levels in excess of 5000 feet will continue to support elevated stream flows. Temperatures will warm again this coming weekend, causing daily levels to rise again. Please alert the NWS of any observed flooding.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.