Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elfin Cove, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Friday night/ Isolated rain showers and broken to overcast skies continue across the panhandle this afternoon as a low pressure system slowly moves eastward across the Gulf of Alaska. Surface winds remain light across the area, around 15 mph or less with strongest winds ongoing near Skagway with a couple gusts up to 25 mph.
Through tonight, winds will diminish to 10 mph or less as surface pressure gradient continues to relax while at the upper levels the low pressure remains a bit more organized, keeping low-end rain showers chances (less than 20%) through Thursday afternoon over the N Panhandle. As the upper level system transits across the panhandle through Thursday, added in slight chance (around 15% chance) of thunderstorm development along and north of Lynn Canal with some measure of a conditionally unstable environment, however forecast confidence remains low and not expecting widespread thunderstorm development as will most likely need some level of lift to get going, aka terrain induced.

By Thursday night, aforementioned upper level low moves SE/E out of the area, with off-shore wind conditions developing and skies clearing into Friday morning. Best conditions of the week expected Friday and into the weekend with mostly sunny skies, sea breeze induced winds, and high temperatures reaching into the 70s.

LONG TERM
/Saturday through Tuesday/...
With the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska strengthening Saturday, drier and warmer weather is still expected across the majority of the panhandle for the upcoming weekend. With this pattern, a marine layer is also likely over the gulf, though as of this forecast it is not expected to push into the inner channels due to flow largely parallel to the outer coast. With the location of the ridge axis, descending drier air should help suppress cloud development over the inner channels Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures looking to reach the low to mid 70s. Temperatures aloft are not particularly warm, therefore as of this forecast, daytime highs are not expected to meet or exceed any records.

Winds across the panhandle and southeastern Gulf of Alaska will generally drop off as the ridge axis rotates over the region.
Clearing skies will allow for sea breeze development in the usual areas, though the lackluster surface gradient should limit strength of these developing breezes.

As is often the case, model guidance begins to diverge as we head into early next week and energy in the western gulf attempts to erode the ridge over the eastern gulf and panhandle. Forecaster confidence is low for the ridge backing down so easily, with dry and warm conditions expected to continue through early next week as of this discussion. The area with the highest uncertainty would be the northern gulf coast, as it will be on the backend of the ridge axis by that time.

AVIATION
There is a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska that is moving east. As it approaches the Panhandle, it will keep showers in the forecast, that may drop conditions to MVFR through this evening. As the low passes tonight, it will weaken, but still likely bring some lower ceilings and visibilities to the area. Fog is also possible in Yakutat tonight, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFS.

After 18Z Thursday, conditions look to be generally improve for the Panhandle. On the northern side of the low pressure system, some isolated thunderstorms are possible for Haines and Skagway as the system interacts with terrain. Confidence is low in this occurring, but it is something to monitor.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A weakening low pressure system is currently in the Gulf of Alaska, and is entering our marine waters. The system is weakening as it approaches our area, and winds look fairly weak in the Gulf waters. Behind the low pressure system, a ridge of high pressure will build-in, and lead to generally improving conditions beyond Thursday. Between the west coast of Prince of Wales island and Haida Gwaii, northwesterly winds will be between 15-25 kts with seas of 6-9 feet, so this is an area to monitor.

Inside (Inner Channels): This afternoon, winds are fairly strong near Ketchikan and in northern Lynn Canal from near Eldred Rock to Taiya Inlet. Winds on Thursday look to be light and variable again before Friday brings elevated winds back to Lynn Canal, Clarence Strait, Cross Sound, and Icy Strait. Southerly winds can be expected again in Lynn Canal, and onshore winds in the Gulf will channel stronger winds in Clarence Strait, Icy Strait, and Cross Sound.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661.