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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 837 Am Akst Sun Dec 10 2023
updated
Rest of today..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt near point couverden. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 101535 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 635 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
The most recent system to impact the panhandle has largely departed the area as of the time of writing. A relative lull in the weather, punctuated by rain and snow showers, will linger through Sunday before chances of widespread precipitation return Sunday night into Monday ahead of a series of systems which will arrive in the Panhandle in full force on Tuesday - although parts of the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat will see impacts beginning as early as Monday.

For Sunday itself, patchy fog is expected for some locations through the morning hours. Chances of rain and snow will linger as a weak wave moves through the area in the wake of the previous system.
Anticipate some minor snow accumulations will occur across locations, depending on snow shower intensity. By late Sunday afternoon, precipitation will have largely left the panhandle, although some chances will still linger for more northerly locales. Expect some periods of sunshine, especially in the S half of the panhandle before widespread stratus cloud cover rebuilds from N to S ahead of an approaching system.

Aloft, ridging has begun to rebuild in the upper levels (300 mb) as of the time of writing, ahead of a rapidly deepening trough which is diving out of the Aleutians. This trough will support the development of an initial area of vertically-stacked low pressure which will anchor itself over the far SW interior of the state by late Sunday. A well-organized corresponding warm front will lift NE through the day, arriving in force for the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat beginning Sunday night, and reaching south along the Outer Gulf Coast through Monday. It is likely that some areas, including Juneau and Yakutat, will see some minor snow accumulations Sunday night and potentially early Monday as this system arrives, though significant warm air advection will quickly encourage a changeover to rain through Monday morning. Anticipate chances for greater snowfall totals will be largely from Monday onwards, and predominantly for the Haines and Klondike Highways.

This front will prove to be the harbinger of a more substantial, complex weather event beginning Tuesday. Cyclogenesis will occur along two separate triple points of the original low's cold front.
The first of these newly formed lows will race north, sending a second warm front into the entirety of the panhandle on Tuesday, bringing with it widespread rainfall to most locations (and potentially snow to the Haines and Klondike Highway) while its associated circulation supplants the previous low. This will result in the new center of circulation moving into the general vicinity of Anchorage. A much stronger wave will race north later on Tuesday, bringing with it potentially significant rainfall for much of SE AK, as its associated warm front is followed by a trailing plume of moisture which looks likely to primarily impact the central and southern panhandle. At this time river rises are anticipated, although the full extent of the impacts will be largely dependent on how far east the wave's associated low tracks. Alongside river rises, periods of high winds may be possible for some areas, especially in the central and southern panhandle, on Tuesday. For additional details, see the long term forecast discussion.

LONG TERM
/Monday through Friday/...Little change to the mid range forecast next week as ensemble model guidance as well as deterministic models continue to trend towards an active pattern ridging over the panhandle into British Columbia and troughing over the Alaska Peninsula and NW gulf. Continuing from the short range, some general clearing remains possible for the southern panhandle Sunday into Monday ahead of the next impactful system.

With the above mentioned synoptic setup, widespread gale force winds will develop throughout the gulf with a front sweeping across into the NE gulf coast. Confidence continues to grow that this feature will also bring a weak to moderate AR event to the central and southern panhandle, with IVT values of 500 or more for an extended period. Model guidance is trending towards the northern panhandle and gulf coast seeing the first surge of moisture with the initial gale force front the second half of Monday, before a secondary stronger surge impacts the central and southern panhandle early Tuesday lasting into early Wednesday. 12 and 24 hour rainfall totals for this secondary surge are continuing to show the potential to exceed 10 and in some cases 25 year return intervals. This will likely lead to some rises in streams and rivers in the central and southern panhandle. Overall this is expected to be a rain event due to rising snow levels ahead of and during the heaviest precipitation. However, the northern panhandle, particularly at higher elevations along the Haines and Klondike Highways, could see moderate snow accumulation initially before a likely transition to mix or even straight rain.

Once again, the main focus of this event remains the above mentioned widespread heavy rain potential, strong winds will likely develop in the gulf along the coastal waters and potentially reach further inland at higher elevations, as well as push northward along Chatham and Clarence Straits. With the ridge in the interior and the low spinning over the northwest gulf, a tight gradient will set up and persist over the southern panhandle during this timeframe as well, leading to strong gale force southerly winds pushing northward from Hecate Strait up into Clarence Strait with the potential to reach storm force. Therefore strong winds would also be expected for southern Prince of Wales as well as Annette Island and Ketchikan for this time period. Stay tuned for further updates to this evolving situation as we head into next week.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Monday/...The southern third of the Panhandle will stay mostly dry with isolated showers through the period. CIG and VIS flight conditions look to primarily remain around VFR with some dips into MVFR along with a short shower for that region. For the northern 2/3 of the Panhandle, CIG and VIS flight conditions likely bouncing between MVFR and VFR through the period with scattered snow showers turning into more widespread rain and snow as a frontal system approaches that area as you progress through the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Visibilities over the northern Panhandle may dip into the IFR category under moderate to heavy precipitation. As far as SFC winds, they look to remain relatively benign through the period from Gustavus, south and eastward. Winds will pick up, getting a bit gusty toward approximately the latter half of the period for the Yakutat and northeast Gulf Coast area. For that same area, LLWS values look to pick up to around 45 kt out of a southeasterly direction for this evening through the overnight hours.

MARINE
Small craft conditions across the outer coastal waters will slowly deteriorate further into gale force conditions through Sunday as a front enters the Gulf of Alaska. Winds in the inner channels will increase through Sunday, reaching small craft for many locations Sunday night. A series of strong fronts will result in gale force and storm force winds across the outer coastal waters through much of the week ahead, alongside small craft and gale force conditions for the inner channels through much of the week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ317.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>033-053-641>643-661- 662.

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Flynn Cove
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Sun -- 04:43 AM AKST     4.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:43 AM AKST     15.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:30 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:12 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:27 PM AKST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:49 PM AKST     13.13 feet High Tide
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Flynn Cove, Icy Strait, Alaska, Tide feet

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