Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Karluk, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Today through Monday)...

Much colder than average temperatures and widespread ocean-effect snow showers across the Bering Sea will continue to be the primary stories for the next several days into early next week. Across Southwest, an upper level shortwave trough is continuing to dive south into the region from the western Interior this morning.
Given the very cold and dry air mass in place, this disturbance is not really changing near surface conditions much, mainly just reinforcing the cold air mass. Cold air streaming southwest has also won out over a front draped near the AKPen and Aleutian Chain, effectively suppressing the boundary farther south of the chain compared to some earlier model projections for this time period. High pressure continues to preside over much of the northern and western Bering Sea as the center of the ridge slowly drifts west over/near Siberia. Mostly closed-cell cumulus covers nearly the entire portion of the Bering Sea not covered by sea ice, fueled by very low level instability in the marine layer as cold air streams off of the ice edge and across open water. Some of this cloud cover is producing snow showers, affecting the Pribilof Island and the Near, Rat and Andreanof Islands at times.

In terms of the outlook through the start of next week, expect much of the same conditions to persist as the overarching pattern remains very steady-state. Temperatures across Southwest will begin to warm with time as the Arctic air mass modifies through Monday, but the progress will be excruciatingly slow. Wind chills down in the -40s across the Kuskokwim Delta will rise back into the -20s after a few hours of sunshine today, but it looks likely for values to drop back below -40 again after sunset tonight.
Thus, the Wind Chill Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta has been extended out through early Sunday afternoon. Wind chills across much of Southwest will remain in the -20s to -30s through early next week, even as temperatures slowly rebound a few degrees each day. Aside from the cold temperatures, dry and mostly clear conditions will persist through Monday.

For the Bering and Aleutians, temperatures will not be nearly as cold as Southwest, but still below average for the start of March.
Lows will be mostly in the mid 20s along with highs struggling to get above freezing for the next several days. A portion of the trough digging over Southwest will also close off into an upper level low near the Pribilofs this afternoon, then drive southwest towards Shemya on Sunday. This will send another surge of cold air across the central/western Bering, causing a renewed round of more intense convective snow showers that will spread into the western half of the Aleutian Chain through Monday morning.
Otherwise, expect gusty northeast winds at or just shy of Gale force to continue across the southern Bering and along the Aleutian through at least Monday afternoon.

-AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through Friday)...

Troughing looks to persist over mainland Alaska next week with a low centered south of the western Aleutians by Tuesday. In the meantime, a secondary low moves through the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday and moves into the Alaska Panhandle on Wednesday. Some light precipitation may reach the Southcentral coast, though at this time chances look to be low as models keep this system south of a stationary front draped across the Gulf. The low south of the Aleutians will start moving east Tuesday, but models have trended slower with its progression. There is agreement on some shortwaves moving through the Gulf midweek, but model variance is high with timing and progression of these waves. This makes pinpointing precipitation chances for the Aleutians, the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and coastal Southcentral difficult at this time. These details will become more clear in the coming days.

Outside of the coastal regions, conditions look to remain dry across southern Alaska through Friday. Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the region next week but remain below average.

PA

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.