Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Karluk, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Saturday morning)...

Currently, a shortwave trough continues to push inland of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay this morning which is helping rain and rain/snow mix to persist across those areas. This activity continues eastward to the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay through today.

The next systems to watch are currently a Kamchatka front and a low over the Western Aleutians this morning. These systems will interact with each other as they push east across the Aleutian Chain and to the Pribilof Islands today. Mostly gale-force winds are expected across the North Pacific and Bering Sea with these systems. However, a corridor of sustained storm-force winds are possible in the North Pacific marine zones just south of the Aleutian Chain along the southern flank of the storm. Mostly rain is expected with this system. The Pribilof Islands could start out as a brief period of rain/snow mix before going over to rain this afternoon. The front reaches mainland Southwest Alaska by this evening bringing with it more gusty southerly winds to the coast as well as rain and rain/snow mix. This activity pushes inland to the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay by Thursday morning.

A more significant and impactful storm system organizes Wednesday evening in the North Pacific. The front quickly advances to the Aleutian Chain early Thursday morning bringing strong gusty southerly winds to the Eastern Aleutians and Southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) through Thursday. There is moderate to high confidence that storm-force winds with hurricane-force wind gusts will accompany this system with the core of the strongest winds passing over the Eastern Aleutians Thursday. Therefore, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the Eastern Aleutians that goes into effect 4 AM AKST Thursday morning through 10 PM AKST Thursday night. Nikolski and Akutan have the best chance at seeing southerly wind gusts up to 80 mph. Unalaska/Dutch Harbor look to be protected from the strongest winds due to the southerly direction. This area can still see gusts between 40 to 60 mph though. There is lower confidence if hurricane-force wind gusts make it across the southern AKPEN and into Cold Bay Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. In addition to the strong winds, moderate to heavy rain will also accompany this system.

This system quickly crosses into the Bering from the North Pacific Thursday afternoon as it elongates. The system then tracks from the vicinity of the Pribilof Islands Thursday afternoon to just east of Saint Lawrence Island by early Friday morning. This track, along with the strong pressure gradient between the storm itself and North Pacific high pressure near the Alaska Panhandle will set the stage for sustained southerly flow into Kuskokwim Bay. The Coastal Flood Watch remains out for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast from this evening through Friday morning. Water levels as high as 3 to 7 feet above the highest tide line continue to be possible through this time; especially for the communities of Kwigillingok and Kongiganak. The initial push of southerly to southwesterly winds of 40 to 50 mph arrives this evening with the stronger more significant push of 50 to 60 mph southerly winds arriving Thursday evening. These winds slowly diminish through the day Friday as flow turns more westerly and cold air works in off the Bering. As this colder air works in during the day Friday into the Kuskokwim Delta, warm southerly flow and rain continues for the AKPEN, Bristol Bay, and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley into Saturday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Little change from previous discussion.

Strong winds, precipitation and unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Monday over much of Southern Alaska as a frontal system moves across the region. A major change in the weather pattern late Monday and into Tuesday will see Southerly winds give way to a more northerly component across much of Southern Alaska as an Arctic airmass dips southward into the lower half of the state. Much lower temperatures are expected across much of Southern Alaska by Tuesday.

A very strong longwave ridge along the U.S. and Canadian west coast, coupled with a deep longwave trough with associated closed low and frontal systems is expected to be moving up into the northern Bering Sea and up into far northeastern Russia. Strong pressure and temperature gradients between these two systems will be very impressive even by Alaskan standards. The strong pressure gradient setting up along this boundary, plus at least two distinct stronger areas of low pressure that will move north along it, will support strong southwest winds, initially over the eastern Aleutians and Southwest. Stronger winds could also affect parts of Southcentral on Sunday as the second low moves up from the Pacific into Southwest. Heavy precipitation along the main frontal zone is expected as deep moisture will help support rather intense precipitation rates for much of Southwest and later Southcentral compared to what is typically possible for late January. Temperatures in many areas of Southwest close to sea level will likely initially be warm enough for rain at lower elevations, and this will likely also be the case as the front shifts into Southcentral between Sunday and Monday. There could be a transition over to snow across both Southwest and Southcentral as cooler air begins to move in behind the front between Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

PANC... Scattered rain and snow showers are expected later this morning through the late afternoon causing brief periods of MVFR to VFR conditions. Southerly to southwesterly winds late this afternoon through Thursday evening with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 knots are expected.