Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Excursion Inlet, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 071408 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 508 AM AKST Sat Dec 7 2024

SHORT TERM
/ through Saturday night / Old surface low around 53N/140W is slowly weakening and drifting towards Haida Gwaii through Saturday, and associated rain band has lift north into the southern panhandle this morning as the low moves to be more south the panhandle, the N-S channels may pick up wind speeds briefly but should decrease and become light by the evening.

Patches of dense fog are floating about the Gustavus, Juneau and Petersburg area so Advisories were issued with the Gustavus and Juneau's area cold enough for it to freeze on surfaces. The fog should lift by mid morning, however with the light winds tonight it is entirely possible that the southern half of the panhandle in the light wind situation will develop areas of fog again. Unsure at the present if it will be dense.

LONG TERM
/Sunday through Friday/...High pressure ridge will move over the AK Panhandle Sunday as a gale force front starts to track into the western AK Gulf. As the front approaches Sunday morning will be a transition from northerly to southerly flow. Overall Sunday will be dry but there is a 500 mb vort max moving over that afternoon which could set off some showers ahead of the main front that afternoon into Monday. Temps will increase Sunday morning as flow shifts to the south and then continue to rise overnight and into Monday. Since there will be cold air in place from Saturday night any precip on Sunday could fall a snow or a rain snow mix, but then switch over the all rain for most sea level locations. Due to limited moisture and QPF not much accumulating snow expected.
Question has been the timing of the approaching front with latest operational models slowing it down and thus keeping the drier weather in place through Monday. Ensemble timing did not change as much so holding off on really cutting off the PoP yet. What does look likely are the gale force winds over the eastern gulf along the front with inner channel winds picking up by at least early Tuesday. Moderate precip amounts expected especially for the NE Gulf Coast from the front. The parent low pushes into the gulf late Tuesday into early Wednesday with more gale force winds and rain.
Moderate to heavy precip for mid week will be more wide spread. with the rising snow levels and increased rainfall will again be watching for river rises.
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