Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Excursion Inlet, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 162356 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 256 PM AKST Sun Feb 16 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday night/ Outflow winds continue and most of the area is under cloudy skies as what is left of the front that decayed over the panhandle last night lingers. As of 1 pm, east/west oriented outflow areas (like Taku Inlet) are still showing winds of 20 to 30 kt, through a gradual diminishing trend has been noted through the early afternoon hours. Otherwise winds are fairly light outside of these outflow areas. Cloud cover is fairly wide spread based on satellite imagery and surface obs, and that has kept morning temperatures warmer across the panhandle then what we have seen the last several mornings.

Into Monday night, the forecast is rather quiet. The remaining outflow is expected to diminish late this afternoon and evening as pressure gradients between the gulf and northern BC slacken.
This will leave most areas in the inner channels with 15 kt or less of wind by late tonight at the latest. That low wind scenario will last through Monday night at least. Meanwhile, cloud cover combined with overall flow turning more S and SW by Monday night will cause a gradual warming trend through the period. Many areas are expected to have highs above freezing Monday (mid 30s as far north as Haines and Skagway likely) while lows will still go below, or near freezing at night. Little in the way of precip expected through Monday night though the NE gulf coast could see some light rain or snow at times with little in the way of accumulation expected.

LONG TERM
Through the remainder of the week, the Gulf of Alaska and Panhandle will be on the business end of a rather sizable Rossby wave, with several upper level disturbances and associated gale to severe-gale force surface lows steered into the region into the weekend. Simply put, much warmer, wetter, with wind for coastal locations. As this robust low takes residence across the Aleutian Chain, it will steer an Atmospheric River (AR)
into the western coast of Canada and Pacific Northwest by the end of the week, with the Panhandle on the northern side of the main moisture plume.

Speaking on moisture, Scripps CW3E data continues to show the GEFS, WRF, and EPS ensemble solutions in lockstep through Thursday before diverging due to low placement and subsequent steering winds. This will be critical to either a “non-AR” impacting the central and southern region or a weak AR. As heavier rainfall fills in across the region later Thursday, WRF 24-hour QPF suggests higher confidence for 0.75 to 1.5 inches for the southern region, with some outliers hinting 3 inches. Given the warm onshore flow, expecting all rain at sea level. This pattern is not conducive to improving our low-level snow pack, with Long Lake SNOTEL needing to make up 26 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE)
to reach normal before our mid-April water year peak.
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