Sunrise 4:26 AM   Sunset 9:21 PM Moonrise 10:54 AM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 315 Am Akdt Wed May 15 2024
Today - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. Tonight - Light winds becoming nw 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.Thu - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu night - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sun - W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 151414 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 614 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

SHORT TERM
Drier weather is on the way for the latter half of the week - after one more day with chances of rain showers for much of SE AK. A disintegrating low and its associated upper level trough will move across the area from NW to SE through the day on Wednesday. Precipitation will come to an end, and skies will begin to clear as the low finally decays into an open wave at the surface level before dissipating entirely through early Thursday morning. In the wake of the low, drier weather can be expected.
Chances of rain showers will attempt to hang on, especially in the northern half of the area and along the coastal mountain range where the low itself is situated, through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday evening, shower coverage will be diminishing as onshore flow collapses, and moisture transport follows suit. The clearer skies already spreading into the central and southern panhandle as of the time of writing will work their way north, and drier weather is in store by Thursday, with the chance of perhaps a few lingering showers in the southern panhandle and along the interior Coastal Range. Fog may form during the overnight time frame Wednesday night into Thursday morning for some locations.

Winds will generally diminish in most of the inner channels, with the current S flow changing to prevailing N flow Thursday evening.
Stronger winds are likely in parts of the far southern inner channels, along with intensifying NW flow for the outer coastal waters, but think that winds in the inner channels will, even with the shift in wind direction, be on an overall diminishing trend.
Only minimal changes were made to the forecast, primarily to cloud cover as well as extending the period of higher probability PoPs across the central and northern panhandle.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Tuesday/...For the mid range, aside from some patchy fog development that is possible Thursday morning the main story remains an outlook for drier conditions and thinning or breaks in cloud cover for Thursday and Friday. As of this forecast issuance, highest chance for clearing skies will likely be inland central panhandle. This is due to a blocking ridge that looks primed to set up over the southern gulf on Friday. With SE AK on the downstream side of the ridge, will be seeing some zonal onshore flow so light drizzly showers remain possible for outer coastal communities. Overall not seeing strong signal for swings in temperature with this setup, so can expect them to remain seasonable, with some warming by the end of the weekend. With this setup, also not expecting any significant winds for the inside waters and gulf waters with the lone exception being a coastal jet potentially developing Friday heading into Cross Sound depending on the placement of the ridge axis.

For the weekend, damp weather returns as a series of upper troughs move through. The reflections of those features at the surface will be rather weak though. So significant rain and winds are not expected. The track of these systems is not set in stone however, as differences show up on how these systems interact with a surface ridge that is trying to build over the gulf at the same time, especially later in the weekend and early next week. The result is high uncertainty for the late weekend and beyond on how wet or dry places will actually be.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Thursday/...A mix of conditions in the MVFR and VFR flight categories will improve into all VFR through the TAF period as showers diminish. SFC winds and LLWS will remain benign.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ662-663.

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Bartlett Cove
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Wed -- 01:29 AM AKDT     6.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:49 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:26 AM AKDT     10.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:53 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:06 PM AKDT     2.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:55 PM AKDT     10.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:26 AM AKDT     4.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:49 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM AKDT     9.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:54 PM AKDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:56 PM AKDT     10.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska, Tide feet

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