Monday, March30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Egegik, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 8:41PM Sunday March 29, 2020 8:24 PM AKDT (04:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egegik, AK
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location: 58.45, -157.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 300141 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 541 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A strong upper level ridge extending from the northern Bering Sea to the Arctic is shifting eastward into northern Alaska while a trough east of the ridge drops southward across southern Alaska. While not strong, there is some low level cold air advection ongoing across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. The coldest air extends from the eastern Alaska interior southward into the Copper River Basin, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out this morning at -20 degrees F or colder. Meanwhile, a 985 mb low is exiting the southeastern Gulf, with strong surfacer pressure gradients between this low and a 1035 mb high over northern Alaska. The combination of the temperature gradients, cold air advection, pressure gradients, and strong subsidence aloft is leading to widespread windy conditions across the southern mainland, with strongest winds through and near the mountains. High Wind Warnings are in effect for the Matanuska Valley and Thompson Pass. Temperatures are below normal across the region, with all but a few coastal locations below freezing. In fact, high temperatures today will end up 5 to 10 degrees below normal across nearly all of the southern mainland.

West of the upper ridge, a low is tracking northward along the Russian coast, with a north-south oriented cold front marching eastward across the central Bering Sea and Aleutians. There is a swath of precipitation and small craft to gale force winds (strongest over northern Bering) ahead of the front. The front is slowly weakening as it elongates along the west side of the upper ridge.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement with major features through about Tuesday. Differences then develop in Southwest Alaska Tuesday night/Wednesday as an amplified upper trough approaches from the Bering Sea. The model trend is toward developing a stronger closed surface low, where many prior solutions only indicated a surface trough. The NAM has been most consistent with this idea. Thus, the forecast will be trended toward stronger winds and a more significant precipitation event over Southwest Alaska. There are also a large spread in solutions with a low tracking into the far western Bering Sea on Wednesday, though those differences are less impactful to the overall forecast and will just use an average position for now.

AVIATION. PANC . Gap winds exiting the Matanuska River Valley will bend southward down Knik Arm and near the terminal. While there may be an occasional break in the wind, gusty northerlies will prevail through Monday morning. Winds will then shift west of the terminal and weaken. VFR conditions (clear skies) will prevail through the period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Several upper level waves traversing Southcentral along with a building upper level ridge to the west will allow strong, gusty offshore winds to continue through Monday. Areas likely to see the strongest winds include Thompson Pass and Matanuska Valley, where warning level winds are expected through Monday. In addition, gusty winds will persist through Valdez, Seward, and the Copper River Delta through this evening before tapering off Monday. Otherwise, generally clear conditions are expected for the start of the workweek. Below average low temperatures are expected overnight through the early morning for Monday and Tuesday, though high temperatures will climb to near normal values in the afternoons. The next chance for precipitation will be toward the end of the week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday) .

There's not a cloud anywhere in sight across the entirety of Southwest Alaska this afternoon. That will remain the case tonight. Tomorrow clouds will slowly build in from west to east during the day, but most of Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley will have another day of full sunshine. Mainly cloudy conditions will persist from Monday night through Wednesday. The clouds on Monday night will be associated with a rapidly weakening front. Snow showers are likely along the Kuskokwim Delta coast in the evening, but snow chances will quickly diminish as you move east. The remnant cloud cover persists through the day on Tuesday. The coldest temperatures in Southwest Alaska are expected tonight under clear skies, a thick snowpack, and light winds. A number of the cold spots in the area should drop a few degrees below zero tonight. Starting Monday, temperatures will be on a warming trend as clouds increase.

On Tuesday night a North Pacific low with quite a bit of moisture will move from the Alaska Peninsula northward towards Southwest Alaska. While there's a fair amount of disagreement on the timing, the general consensus is for the center of the low to track northward off Cape Newenham early Wednesday and up the west coast of the state through the day on Wednesday. Most of the moisture with the low will be on the east side of it, but that is also the warm side of lows. Thus, as that precipitation moves into Southwest Alaska, where the rain/snow line sets up will be the critical factor between places getting a half inch of rain or quite a bit of snow. As much of the precipitation with the low will be coming overnight Tuesday night, that will favor some areas getting quite a bit of snow, particularly in Dillingham and areas around the Kuskokwim Mountains, while wind and rain will be favored further east towards King Salmon and Iliamna. There is significant potential for at least advisory criteria amounts of snow. The front looks to stall out over Southwest Alaska as well, which could mean prolonged precipitation through Wednesday night. This will certainly be one to watch as we turn the page from March into April.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday) .

A front over the western Bering this afternoon will move east across the Bering and into the coast of Southwest Alaska Monday night. It will rapidly weaken once it passes the Pribilofs on Monday. Gales are expected with the front mainly in the waters west of St. Matthew Island, but the hazards will diminish with time. High pressure builds over much of the Bering through Monday night. An aforementioned low develops south of Cold Bay Monday night and will track along the west coast of the state through Wednesday. A weak low moves into the northwestern Bering on Wednesday. None of these features are expected to produce overly impactful weather through Wednesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday).

Bering Sea and Aleutians . Small craft winds are expected in the northern portion of the western Bering Tuesday morning as a front moves through that area. The chance for gale force gusts along this front is low due to a high degree of uncertainty with respect to the intensity of this front. Impacts of this in the eastern Bering are minimal as the front is expected to dissipate before reaching that area. Small craft southwesterly winds that may gust to gale force at times are possible in the western Bering/Aleutians on Wednesday as a low moves across the northern Bering. Confidence is very low in the track and intensity of this low which results in very low confidence in the wind forecast all the way through Thursday.

Gulf of Alaska . Confidence is low to moderate in the wind forecast across the Gulf on Tuesday as there are some minor discrepancies between guidance with the placement of synoptic features. However, the overall weather pattern will remain quiet on Tuesday. There is a chance of small craft southeasterly winds across the western Gulf on Wednesday associated with a low over Bristol Bay. Confidence in these small craft winds is low as there are significant differences in solutions for the low track and intensity. For Thursday there is low confidence in the wind forecast, though the weather pattern is expected to remain benign.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Sunday).

Guidance is consistent with an upper level ridge extending across the Alaskan mainland on Wednesday as an upper trough is present over the Bering/Aleutians. Due to this, temperatures will be warmer with a benign weather pattern over the Alaskan mainland and cooler with a more active weather pattern over the Bering/Aleutians. Uncertainty increases into Thursday as guidance shows a higher degree of variation in solutions with upper level synoptic features which will affect the placement and intensity of surface synoptic features. The only area of consistency is the upper level ridging will continue over the eastern Alaskan mainland near the AlCan border and thus, expect warm temperatures and quiet weather for that region. Very low forecast confidence exists overall Friday through Sunday as major differences in upper level synoptic features exist between guidance which is causing significant differences in the placement of surface features causing a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Warning 111 131. MARINE . Gale 127 185. Heavy Freezing Spray 127 140 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Egegik, Egegik Airport, AK7 mi29 minN 710.00 miFair19°F6°F57%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAII

Wind History from AII (wind in knots)
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2 days ago--------------------S4SW5SW5SW8--------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Mon -- 03:24 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:33 AM AKDT     2.55 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:31 PM AKDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:16 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:54 PM AKDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:45 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-1.8-1.5-0.612.42.521.30.1-1-1.6-2-2-1.9-1.7-0.51.11.61.20.6-0.3-1.3-1.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.