Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Egegik, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:41AMSunset 11:28PM Saturday July 11, 2020 12:35 PM AKDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:37AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egegik, AK
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location: 58.45, -157.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 111647 CCA AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 AM AKDT Sat Jul 11 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The complex weather pattern remains in place yet again across Alaska this morning. An upper level low is present over the North Pacific near southeast Alaska moving slowly towards the coast. The Copper River Basin remains under the influence of an upper level trough pushing through the region that is resulting in a good amount of cloud cover and showers across the region this morning. Southcentral remains under the influence of generally westerly flow aloft that is downsloping off the Alaska Range. This has lead to a scouring out of any low level moisture leading to generally just high level clouds across Cook Inlet, the western Kenai Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and west Anchorage. Further east, the flow was upsloping against the Chugach leading to more cloud cover there and even a few showers.

Over southwest Alaska, the flow aloft remains northerly off the land which is a drying flow leading to a partly cloudy sky for the area. Looking at the water vapor imagery, the next upper level wave (currently near Kotzebue) is working its way southward that will be the culprit for thunderstorms/showers mainly across southwest Alaska this afternoon into the evening hours, though some storms are possible across southcentral Alaska as well.

The blocking omega high pattern remains across much of the Bering this morning with one low south of the Aleutian Chain and the other moving towards southeast Alaska. Omega for the Greek letter as this is the shape the pattern looks like when looking at the current upper level analysis. However, it appears that this blocking may be starting to break down as the upper low south of the Aleutian Chain chokes off the ridge. Underneath the high, stable air remains with the usual low stratus and patchy fog present across the Bering. Small craft advisory level winds, periods of rain showers and mist were present with the front associated with a low south of the Aleutian Chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in rather good agreement on the synoptic scale features out through Day 3. The main difference was the placement of the upper level low across the northern Gulf for Day 3 as the NAM, GFS, and Canadian all place it in a similar place with the ECMWF being the furthest east and faster with this upper level low.

Models came into better agreement on the convective parameters and they are consistent on the type of convection that is expected to form across southwest Alaska today. For Sunday, the forecast is still being fine tuned as to how much instability will be in place for convection.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF package. Gusty southeasterly winds are anticipated to move into the terminal later this evening and persist throughout the rest of the package. A few showers are expected to impact the terminal at times as well especially this afternoon and evening.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and Sunday) .

One last day of significant thunderstorm activity is expected for s southcentral Alaska today. The trough over southwest Alaska will once again be the source of lift and instability for widely scattered thunderstorms today. The focus will shift westward from yesterday, since the trough over southwest Alaska will dig and cutoff from the trough over Northern Alaska. Thus, the best chance of widely scattered thunderstorms today will be along the Alaska Range and the northern and western Susitna Valley. Thunderstorms will also be possible along the Talkeetna and Kenai Mountains as well today, with somewhat better chances over the Kenai. The steering flow today will turn westerly and then southwesterly. Thus, any storms that form should generally move away from populated areas and into the mountains, with the exception of any western Susitna Valley storms. Thunderstorm activity in the western Susitna Valley particularly should persist well into the night, since the active forcing will be the upper trough, and not the more typical surface instability.

The other weather story of note this weekend will be the return of southeasterly gap winds to the usual spots along Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and the Copper Basin. The winds will pick up this afternoon in these areas, but will intensify overnight tonight and into Sunday. This will be due to mass pileup in Prince William Sound and along the Gulf Coast due to increasing onshore flow coupled with the relative low pressure over southwest Alaska and the interior. Gusts to 35 mph are possible on Sunday along Turnagain Arm and higher elevations and through the Copper River Basin.

Elsewhere on Sunday, onshore southwesterly flow will transport a much more stable air mass into southcentral Alaska. This will result in much less thunderstorm activity over the area than previous days. However, the threat for isolated storms will persist along the Alaska Range in the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin. Otherwise, expect widespread rain and shower activity on Sunday. The cloud cover should knock high temperatures back into the mid 60s for most areas. Windier locations will see primarily their low temperatures tonight stay warmer.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The main weather the next few days is convective activity in southwest Alaska. The past few days we have been watching the development of a weather pattern of warmer temperatures and an upper level low moving in over the weekend. The weather forecast is on track, with warmer temperatures observed yesterday. The upper level low we have also been anticipating can now be observed on satellite working south through the western Interior. It had vigorous lightning associated with it late into the night.

Therefore, widely scattered thunderstorms associated with this trough was maintained in the forecast. One change is that models are in agreement of an even more active area of convection in interior Southwest, just north of New Stuyahok. This is forecasted to occur late this afternoon as the upper level low dives into the area. Therefore, upped the forecast to scattered thunderstorms for zone 152 north of New Stuyahok. It also looks like this area of storms will collapse overnight into rain and more stratiform cloud cover. Tomorrow, isolated thunderstorms are possible with instability still in place, though activity decreases. It should also be noted that convective activity should mostly be staying away from the coast, with just a few showers and isolated thunderstorms forming a little inland. Overall, an active weather weekend is expected, then weather quiets early next week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Generally quiet and predicable weather continues for the Bering Sea. High pressure is still in place over much of the region, maintaining the low stratus and fog that has been in place. This will continue through the weekend, though the high shifts west which will allow for some northerly flow and clearing in the eastern Bering. In fact, some places in the eastern Aleutians cleared more than expected today so this scenario appears to be on track. Low pressure continues to slide slowly east along the Aleutians, moving on the south side of the high pressure. The front with this system is quite elongated and thus lacking much of a punch. Just some light rain and winds will continue as this tracks east the next few days. This weather picture continues to play out slowly and models have been performing well, so high confidence this will turn out as expected.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Winds over the western Bering and Aleutians weaken towards the end of the weekend as high pressure builds over the Bering. Models are trying to develop a low south to southwest of Shemya for Tuesday afternoon, but the placement of this low system is still the biggest uncertainty. This difference in placement and track is the difference between a front moving over the western and central Aleutians late Tuesday into Wednesday versus the low staying south of the Aleutian Chain.

Over the Gulf, there is higher confidence that a low will move into the region late Sunday. However, there is still uncertainty as to how far north the associated front will lift and whether small craft advisory level winds will be reached.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

The overall pattern for Tuesday of next week will likely be similar to what we have over the region today with high pressure over the Bering Sea and an upper level low in the Gulf. Interior parts of southern Alaska will be convectively unstable, but it is too early to define these exact areas at this point.

As the week progresses, the high pressure over the Bering Sea will likely ease eastward bringing more stable conditions to Southwest Alaska. Southcentral will likely see unstable conditions continue through most of the week, but whether that will likely keep afternoon and evening showers and/or thunderstorm potential over the mountains remains to be seen.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MV SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . BJB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/EZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Egegik, Egegik Airport, AK7 mi39 minSW 810.00 miOvercast54°F50°F87%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAII

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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sat -- 01:53 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:14 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:25 AM AKDT     2.66 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:43 PM AKDT     -2.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:36 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:06 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:05 PM AKDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:24 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.1-1.9-1.6-0.41.42.62.52.11.1-0.2-1.4-2.3-2.8-2.8-2.7-2-0.21.521.91.40.5-0.6-1.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.