Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aleneva, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Weak ridging in the Southwest Interior will continue to slowly erode as a weak front moves southeastward this afternoon. A slow moving low in the Central Aleutians will continue to bring rain and gusty winds across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through tomorrow before entering the Gulf of Alaska.

Instability from the front moving southeastward and limited breaks in the clouds resulted in late morning thunderstorms today just north of Sleetmute. As this front continues its trek today, an area of rain showers and a 20% chance an isolated wet thunderstorm in the Crooked Creek to Lime Village area through this evening is possible into mid-eveningtoday. Tomorrow, the chances of afternoon thunderstorms in the Kuskokwim Valley from Lime Village to Crooked Creek northward decreases to 10% to 20%.
Temperatures slightly increase in the Interior areas of the SW Mainland though decrease slightly along the coastline.

Elsewhere, a slow moving low in the Central Aleutians continues to bring southeasterly winds to the Eastern Aleutians and eventually to the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Rainfall will accompany these stronger winds through tomorrow evening too; heaviest on the Pacific side.
The greatest chances for rain showers in the Alaska Peninsula and areas along the Bristol Bay coastline is Thursday. In its wake, northerly winds and drier conditions will prevail. Areas of fog are expected in the Pribilof Islands, coastal SW Alaska and portions of the Central Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula tomorrow and Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The long term begins with a broad longwave trough over the Bering and Gulf with 3 to 4 shortwaves embedded within it. Over the Mainland, a strong ridge extends from the Chukchi Sea southeast into Southcentral. Through Tuesday the trough will shift east over the western half of the state and the Alaska Peninsula while a stout ridge develops over the AlCan, Yukon Territory and BC. The transition of the pattern from Saturday to Tuesday is messy, particularly with how the troughs will interact with the Interior ridging. Over the weekend we're looking at a showery pattern over Southwest and over the mountains of Southcentral. Moving into the start of the work week next week models indicate a potentially wet system developing in the north Pacific and moving into the Southern Mainland. With the amplification of the pattern, there will be a tropical tap to the moisture moving north, so some areas will receive some moderate rain. Right now there is a large meridional spread in the storm track with varied impacts throughout the region. Additionally, there is a signal for a broad southwesterly flow to set up in the Bering, which may bring concerns to the Southwest coast. We will continue to monitor this.

-CJ

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are expected to develop this evening, but a bit later than the typical onset. However, these winds are then expected to increase overnight with gusts up to 30 kt possible after midnight and through the day Wednesday.