Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 9:46 PM Moonrise 8:27 PM   Moonset 4:39 AM

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FXAK68 PAFC 231306 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 AM AKDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday night)...

A short-wave trough extending from the Kuskokwim Valley southeastward to the Kenai Peninsula and northwestern Gulf of Alaska is stuck between tow short-wave ridges. The upstream ridge is amplifying ahead of a large and deep low over the southern Bering Sea.
Anticyclonic flow along the front side of the ridge will overtake the trough and cause it to weaken as it tracks southward into the Gulf today. As of early this morning, very light rain associated with this trough can be found over the northern Gulf, Kenai Peninsula coast, and Kodiak Island. Radar imagery has shown weak returns extending across the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su overnight. However, area observations and webcams indicate that none of this precipitation is reaching the ground.
Considerable cloud cover does extend across all of Southcentral.
In any case, precipitation will taper off today as the trough weakens, with a few lingering showers across the southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Breaks of sun will develop this afternoon and evening, especially inland.

The aforementioned upstream ridge will strengthen over northern Alaska tonight, then build southeastward toward the Yukon through Thursday. This will reinforce a weak low level thermal trough north and east of the Wrangell Mountains. When combined with some weak upper level short-waves transiting the region both today and tomorrow, expect scattered showers - especially during the afternoon and evening hours. While some of the valleys have started to lose snow cover, the mountains are still completely covered. Thus, showers will initiate along slopes surrounding the mountains and any precipitation that falls will be light. The most likely area to see a few showers is the Tok Cutoff from around Chistochina northeastward to Mentasta Lake as well as along the Nabesna Road. The rest of Southcentral can expect a mix of sun and clouds with continued dry conditions.

A weakening occluded front from the Bering low will approach Kodiak Island Wednesday, bringing a return to steady light rain.
The front will very slowly progress northward, with rain likely holding on in Kodiak into Thursday. This is the point at which model guidance begins to diverge with location and strength of upper level short-waves, the progression of the front toward Southcentral, and whether a triple point low will develop in the Gulf. The Kenai Peninsula will see increasing clouds and a good chance of rain as the front nears Thursday/Thursday night. It's difficult to say whether precipitation ever makes it any further into Southcentral.

-SEB

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A 970 mb low lingers in the western/central Bering Sea through at least tomorrow and will continue weakening through Friday. The associated front reaches the Southwest Coast this morning, bringing a round of light precipitation into Southwest Alaska.
There may be a brief shot of snow initially in the Kuskokwim Delta, however, as temperatures climb above freezing precipitation will transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain. Light, showery activity will linger across Southwest Alaska over the next few days.

A second shortwave moves across the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands today, producing another round of precipitation and winds. This band is showing a colder profile, particularly aloft, which may promote brief periods of snow, even with surface temperatures at or just above freezing for the Pribilofs. However, the main precipitation type is expected to be a rain/snow mix.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

On Friday, an upper level low over the Aleutians slides southeastward into the North Pacific underneath a ridge axis over the Yukon and mainland Alaska through the weekend. The associated large surface low also slides southeastward during this time period, continuing areas of showers and locally heavy precipitation and gusty winds from the central Aleutians through Southwest Alaska.

As we head into early next week, there is considerable uncertainty in the upper level pattern over the Bering Sea upstream of the upper low. The deterministic GFS remains the most progressive, with a trough entering the Bering and Aleutians Sunday night. The Canadian and ECMWF, however, begin to build in a ridge over the Aleutians by late Monday. As such, the GFS brings a moderately strong low into southwest Alaska, also impacting Southcentral through Tuesday. There is little to no ensemble support for a strong low at this time, even with the GEFS. Regardless, there is still low confidence even within the ensemble systems, with the GEPS and especially EPS showing a weak progressive ridge building into Southwest Alaska early next week, while the GEFS still continues a broad longwave trough across Southwest Alaska early next week, which could still promote unsettled weather.

-ME

King Salmon Airport, Naknek River, Alaska, Tide feet

Omakstalia Point
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Tue -- 01:15 AM AKDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:28 AM AKDT     6.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:54 PM AKDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 04:01 PM AKDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:27 PM AKDT     Moonrise
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Omakstalia Point, Naknek River, Alaska, Tide feet

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