Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mud Bay, AK

SHORT TERM
The remnants of a low pressure system will move north this evening. Clearing on the backside of the low will foster showery precipitation and scattered clouds across the central and northern regions. Rain will remain generally light, with diminishing chances overnight. Total rainfall through tomorrow morning along the NE Gulf coast will reach under an inch, with around 0.5 inches for the remainder of the northern region.
As rain exits by early tomorrow morning, a break in activity may allow for clearing skies and possible patchy fog. Meanwhile, the southern panhandle will experience the fringes of a shortwave trough moving north and clipping the southeastern corner. This feature will bring light rainfall, primarily isolated to the Misty Fjords and Hyder regions, before quickly exiting to give the south a brief break ahead of the next system.

Conditions become active again tomorrow as an approaching low tracks into the northeastern Gulf. The front is now expected to reach the outer edge of the southern panhandle Saturday afternoon.
It will shift north through the evening while weakening, eventually dissipating near the central panhandle and keeping rain away from the northern region. Rainfall totals over the southern region up to Frederick Sound will likely reach 0.5 to 1.5 inches through early Sunday morning. As the pressure gradient tightens and flow briefly turns northerly on Saturday, winds will pick up in Lynn Canal, potentially reaching advisory criteria in Skagway by the afternoon. Elevated NE winds will also impact outer coastal waters before diminishing quickly Sunday morning.

Maintaining an active pattern, another low enters the central Gulf late Sunday evening, bringing stronger SE winds to most of the outer coast and impacting low-lying communities into early next week. For more details, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM
/ Tuesday through Saturday / The remains of the Monday system will be pulling bay to the NW Gulf and remains of the weather front will be sweeping through the panhandle and NE gulf coast. The midrange solutions think that there will be a secondary system pulling to the far SE of Gulf of Alaska to Haida Gwaii with its associated rain and some wind. Wednesday is hinting an yet another system to push the next weather system into the gulf that will usher in another fall storm to Southeast Alaska.
Fall has decided to stay with the active weather pattern.

AVIATION
/Through 06z Sunday/...Showers continue across the area creating variable flight conditions for SE AK. Areas across panhandle, especially over the south, are starting to see more of a break in those showers with some areas seeing lowest cloud bases around 5000 ft or higher. As showers persist tonight some areas will continue to see a scattered deck, at times broken, around 1500 to 2500 ft. By late Saturday morning most areas are likely to have predominately VFR conditions. Just as that happens, another low will move northward toward the southern panhandle. This will not only bring rain and lowered clouds back to the area, it will also once again increase winds.

Winds currently have begun to relax across the area with the exception of Haines and Skagway where gusts to 30 to 40 kts will continue into early Saturday morning. Winds across the area will be below 10 kts before low moves NW and once again increases winds.
This low will not only increase winds, it will also create a change in wind from southerly to northerly. Once again strongest winds will be over Skagway, but multiple areas will see wind speeds and gusts increase. LLWS is also likely over Prince of Wales Island Saturday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The low passing SW of Yakutat this evening will move east and gradually fill/weaken through morning. This will leave us with a broad southwesterly flow 20 kts or so by morning with 15 ft seas mostly a SW-SE swell. We see another low to gale force moving up out of the north Pacific tomorrow bringing another round of 25 to 35 kt sustained winds with higher gusts to the Dixon Entrance region by tomorrow afternoon. We continue with Gale Warnings for the Dixon Offshore zones starting tomorrow and those will possibly spread a bit further east to the southern Panhandle by Saturday night. Looking further out, the main thing to watch the next few days will be a stronger low moving up out of the north Pacific Monday. Most models bring this low down to around 955 mb as it strengthens/deepens over the central Gulf of Alaska Monday into Tuesday. This could mean storm force winds to the central and eastern Gulf of Alaska zones Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned for further update. /Garmon

Inside (Inner Channels): The low moving west of Yakutat tonight will result in a gradual weakening of winds over the northern Panhandle overnight into Saturday, however as the low to the south moving up towards Haida Gwaii tomorrow deepens a bit, and the high over the Yukon strengthens a bit, we will see an increased northerly flow over the northern Panhandle north to south facing waters tomorrow afternoon and evening...and we have Small Craft Advisories for Saturday posted for those zones. To the south, the low moving up near Haida Gwaii on Saturday will result in an increased wind flow over Clarence Strait, hence the Small Craft Advisories there for tomorrow as well. 05/Garmon

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-034-036-053- 641>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.