Sunrise 3:56 AM   Sunset 10:07 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:04 PM

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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 445 Pm Akdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Wed - S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Wed night - S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Thu - S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Thu night - S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fri - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sun - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 022312 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 312 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SHORT TERM
/ through Wednesday night / Vertically stacked low drifting southward from SW of Kodiak Island towards the northern central Pacific. Generally are of higher pressure over the eastern and northern Gulf of Alaska persisting and holding in place. Weak flow pattern aloft will not lead to any systems coming in and breaking the pattern so the marine deck will continue. A slight reposition of the high pressure ridge will begin some clearing for the southern panhandle as the more pronounced NW winds which is a drying and clearing trend for the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overview: Semi static mid level flow pattern now should remain through the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of rain next week.

At 500 mb: Closed low over the Western AK Gulf will have dropping SE into the N Pacific with weak ridging over the Panhandle. The low is expected to shift back N into next week with uncertainty on how far to the east it might shift. At the surface the gulf low also drops to the south while high pressure expands over the gulf. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for northern half of the panhandle keeping chances of light precip and mostly cloudy skies in place. Ensembles show high probability of mostly cloudy skies. Operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks developing by Thursday.
Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less initially except for the northern channels where the pressure gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have increased southerly winds. Eastern gulf winds pick up on lee side of the ridge with tip jets near coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday due to the blocking pattern.

AVIATION
Weak forcing combined with a moist profile has lead to MVFR and IFR conditions to begin the TAF issuance. Most notably, low CIGs over the NE gulf coast from onshore low will continue into Wednesday. Areas along the far inner channels from Juneau down to Petersburg will also see MVFR with occasional IFR CIG and VIS conditions through the night with persistent onshore flow. As wind speeds begin to decrease aloft Wednesday morning, conditions will begin to improve.

For the southern panhandle, lighter winds aloft with moist conditions will allow for the development of some patchy fog tonight.

MARINE
No significant systems in the area, and a weak wave moving through on Tuesday will be replaced with a ridge of high pressure on Wednesday. Clouds are restricting sea breeze impacts however lesser versions are continuing. Anticipate wind speeds of 20 to 25 kt for parts of the northern Lynn Canal.

HYDROLOGY
The Chilkat River is now firmly on the downward trend due to relatively cooler temperatures for the last few days.
Some uncertainties lie in the amount of QPE the basin has received from this last period of rainfall. However, while the river may crest again this evening, it is not expected to rise above minor flood stage. Looking beyond, temperatures look to possibly raise once again to 70 degrees and above for around the Chilkat River.
While flooding is not expected at this time, additional rises from snowmelt is likely.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-644.

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Pyramid Harbor
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Tue -- 12:53 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 04:53 AM AKDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 AM AKDT     12.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM AKDT     4.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:00 PM AKDT     16.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pyramid Harbor, Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska, Tide feet

Skagway
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Tue -- 12:50 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:04 AM AKDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:32 AM AKDT     13.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM AKDT     4.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:18 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:08 PM AKDT     17.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Skagway, Alaska, Tide feet

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