Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mud Bay, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Tuesday/ No major changes to ongoing forecast or message from this early afternoon as a strong front continues to push into the panhandle.
Winter Storm Warnings, High Wind Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, and Wind Advisories remain in effect through early Monday morning.

Main changes from the early morning forecast generally contained to the southern panhandle this afternoon, adjusted snowfall totals across Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Annette Island with surface temps about 5 degrees warmer than initially forecast, resulting in predominately rain or rain/snow mix to start off, and tampered snow totals across the area slightly with some starter WAA working inland. Model guidance continues to struggle with the track of this low, with most deterministic global models keeping a more defined low making landfall from Sitka northward Cross Sound. However, recent trends in the hi-res guidance are pulling this low track a bit further south of Baranof and accelerating it into the panhandle as a low in the the Gulf takes over, decreasing overall expected precipitation amounts and resulting snowfall accumulations.

For Haines and Skagway, tough snowfall forecast continues. With the track of the low pulling a bit further south, thinking highest snowfall accums of 4 to 8 inches will be located along the upper elevations of the Klondike Highway near White pass and along the Chilkat Peninsula near Haines.

For the Icy Strait corridor, including Juneau, expecting around 6 to 12 inches of snowfall through Monday, with locally higher amounts expected. Snow characteristic will turn from light and fluffy becoming heavier wet snow into early Monday morning with lower snow ratios near 10 to 1 along the Icy Strait Corridor. The main forecast challenge through the evening and into early Monday morning will be the track of this low, which will change the timing of the rain/snow transition and how much resulting snowfall accumulations we will see.

For the southern far panhandle, precipitation type has changed over to predominately snow as of 1pm with the band of heavier precip associated with the front bringing cooler temperatures aloft to the surface. Wet heavy snowfall rates as high a 1 inch per hour will be possible through Sunday night across the southern panhandle before transitioning to rain or rain/snow mix from Sitka to Kake and southward by Monday morning.

As for wind, the southern panhandle and gulf have begun to see strong gusts as the low has moved northward. So far, the strongest land wind gusts have been near Saxman Seaport and Salmon Landing in Ketchikan. At these areas, we have seen gusts up to 50 mph.
There have also been wind gusts near 45 mph over southern Prince of Wales Island, Annette Island, and near Pillar Rock. The main forecast change to wind was over downtown Juneau and South Douglas Island. This was due to increased SE winds coming out of Taku Inlet starting this afternoon. A wind Advisory has been issued for these areas due to these winds expected to continue into early Monday morning. Now for the northern panhandle, winds will remain northerly as this low tightens the north to south gradient as it moves northward. These winds will begin to relax Monday as the low dissipates.

LONG TERM
/ Wednesday through Friday/ Simple message: Onshore flow drives snow showers for the Panhandle Wed into the weekend, with varying snow amounts and potential for training snow showers. Likely a rain/snow mix for coastal locations.

By Wednesday a longwave trough positioned over the Gulf of Alaska will mature and stagnate, being reinforced by pulses of shortwaves sliding south from western AK. Cold air will continue to rotate around the backside of the parent system over the Gulf, with temperatures at 850mb holding near -10C for most of the region through the remainder of the week. At the surface, the dynamics aloft will continue to feed a surface low in the northern gulf, driving onshore flow across the region. Keeping things simple here, we will see continued snow showers across the Panhandle as cold air flows over the relatively warm Gulf waters, creating a complex and dynamic snow forecast. Expect showers, with impacts and precip type driven by shower intensity, location, and the potential for training snow showers. Midweek to the weekend will mirror the previous snow shower regime, with ample opportunity for forecasts to bust. One item of note is the longer path that cold air at the surface will rotate around the parent system in the gulf, which could drive more vigorous instability but result in warmer surface temperatures along the coast. This could bring a rain/snow mix to the central and southern coastal locations under lighter showers, with heavier bursts of precip allowing all snow to push down to the surface. The exception will be the northern Panhandle and Yakutat where cold temperatures will keep the precip type as snow.

For reference, -10C at 850mb this time of year is near the 10 th percentile for both Yakutat and Annette sounding sites, with surface temperatures forecasted to be at normal along the coast to slightly below normal for more interior locations.

AVIATION
A low will continue to track Northeast over the Gulf of AK through the next 24 hours. As the low progresses towards SE AK precipitation that is currently only in the souther portions of the area will spread northward over the rest of the panhandle.
For areas. The aviation impacts this precipitation will have is heavily dependent on type. For areas S PAAP-PAPG line terminals are expected to experience mainly rain yielding mostly MVFR ceilings and visibilities. However, isolated areas may experience lower conditions either due to ceilings or snow briefly getting mixed in. For Areas between PAJN and the aforementioned line expect a snow slowly transitioning to a rain snow mix - resulting in IFR visibility improving to MVFR. For the remainder of the panhandle precipitation will be in the form of snow resulting in IFR to LIFR conditions.

The North Gulf Coast conditions will remain predominately VFR as offshore winds will remain in place through the next 24hrs.

Winds over the panhandle will remain gusty through the overnight and into tomorrow morning. The region's winds will begin to ease from the SW tomorrow morning. LLWS conditions for the southern panhandle terminals will continue to ease as the front moves through the area during the evening and early overnight hours.

MARINE
Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly winds continue across the northern inner channels while southerly winds begin to surge through the southern inside waters due to a strong low pressure system pushing northward. This low pressure system has brought gale force winds into Clarence Strait, Southern Chatham, and Sumner Strait.
Currently the strongest winds are located near Cape Decision and Salmon Landing. There are also currently strong northerly winds out of Lynn Canal near Point Couverden. As this low moves north, it will strengthen the north/south oriented gradient allowing for a period of near gale to gale force winds throughout Lynn Canal. Another area to watch will be Cross Sound as winds are currently 30 kts from the east. As the low pushes northward, there will be a brief period where these winds quickly become southwest before once again becoming easterly. By Tuesday winds throughout the inner channels are expected to be southerly with the exception of far northern Lynn Canal.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong low is currently moving northward into the southern gulf. This low has brought sustained gale force winds near 40 kts with storm force gusts near 50 kts into dixon entrance and to areas west of Prince of Wales Island. These stronger winds will continue over the southern gulf as the low continues to move northward to west of Baranof Island. These strong winds will continue into late tonight before diminishing. A couple of things also occur as this low moves northward. First, strong northeasterly winds push out of Cross Sound into the central gulf.
Then as the low moves northward, winds quickly become southwesterly as another low develops in the far northern gulf. Along with strong winds, an area of 15 to 20 ft significant wave heights pushes into the southern gulf this evening. These waves subside to 8 to 10 ft starting late tonight through Monday.

Then to start the week, the low in the northern gulf will continue to allow widespread fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts across the gulf. At this time, showers will be the main story of the area allowing for times of reduced visibility and gusty winds. This showery pattern then lasts through the week.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ318-319.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ320>322-325.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ323.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ323.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ324.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ325-327-330.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ326.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ327-329.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ328.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ330- 332.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ331.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-661>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-651-652- 671-672.