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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 1230 Pm Akst Mon Dec 11 2023
updated
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Rest of today..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
Tue night..SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
Wed..S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 111533 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 549 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2023

SHORT TERM
A series of systems, some of them storm force, will move into the panhandle through the week, bringing high wind, rain, and snow to SE AK. The forecast remains largely on track, with the biggest change being delaying the onset of significant precipitation for the southern half of the panhandle until Monday night. Otherwise, The first front will impact the panhandle through the day on Monday. The second system will arrive Monday night, moving into the panhandle through Tuesday, with still another system arriving during the day on Tuesday. Winter storm warnings have been posted for the Haines and Klondike Highways, a flood watch has been issued for much of the remainder of the panhandle, and High Wind watches have been issued for the southern panhandle, Juneau, and Skagway. Strong wind headlines have been issued for many locations.
Rain may be heavy at times for much of the area, and river rises are anticipated. Forecast confidence is above average. For additional details, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM
Complicated system to impact the panhandle beginning this Monday and continuing through Wednesday. A storm force low will move into the north central gulf this Monday with a wave maximizing along the panhandle gulf coast Tuesday morning. An embedded wave will move up from the south in the triple point of the low to generate additional storm force winds and potential high winds over land areas for the southern panhandle. This wave will continue to work its way northward through the panhandle and pass into the Yukon. As such, high wind watches were issued for the southern panhandle communities excluding Wrangell, Juneau, and Skagway, as the embedded wave moves northward.

For rain, kept the forecast mostly on track. 12 and 24 hour rainfall totals for the secondary, embedded wave moving northward continue to be approaching 10 year and, in a few cases, 25 year return intervals. With rising snow levels and high rain rates, a flood watch was issued regarding the potential for increased flooding potential in the central panhandle. For the southern panhandle, heavier rain rates combined with wind gusts approaching 60 mph has historically lead to an increased risk of landslides.

Finally, for the highways: A winter storm warning has been issued mainly for higher elevations on the Haines and Klondike Highway.
Less confidence exists for the Klondike Highway than the Haines highway. For the Haines highway, 80% of models have the USA side of the Haines Highway transitioning to rain Tuesday morning. However, for the Klondike highway, because of the higher elevation, snow could stay in place for longer than expected. Furthermore, it will depend on when and if the higher southerly wind speeds push near Skagway.

AVIATION
Aviation weather is looking to get worse and worse as the day goes on. Precipitation (mostly rain) has already started for the northern half of the panhandle with mostly MVFR conditions and gusty winds in various areas. Southern panhandle is mostly VFR this morning with lighter winds. The precip and wind in the north will gradually spread over the rest of the panhandle through the next 24 hours. Expect deteriorating conditions late tonight into Tuesday especially as a stronger wave on the front comes inland spreading higher winds, and heavier rain. Wind shear and turbulence are strong possibilities as well, especially tonight into Tuesday.

MARINE
A series of fronts moving into the panhandle will bring storm force and gale force winds to the outer coastal waters, and gale force and small craft winds to the inner channels through much of the week. Storm force winds may also be possible for Clarence Strait at times. Winds will increase through Monday, before reaching their maximum strength Monday night through Tuesday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ317.
Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ317- 321.
Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for AKZ318-325.
Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for AKZ320>330-332.
Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ323- 325.
Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ327-329-330-332.
Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ328.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ642-643-652-662>664-671.
Gale Warning for PKZ013-031>036-053-641-644-651-661-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-021-022.

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