FXAK67 PAJK 072336 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK 336 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2024

SHORT TERM

Overall quiet weather for the short term. Shower activity across the panhandle diminishes as the residual low pressure system in the AK Gulf continues to weaken and track to the SE. High pressure ridge over the western gulf moves east and builds through Sunday.
Already seeing some breaks in the cloud deck over the northern and central areas. Models still keep some shower activity, however slight through Sunday night. Watching for another night of radiation fog development across much of the region. Decreasing winds through the evening and into Sunday as pressure gradient relaxes. As the ridge tracks in winds shifting to the N-NW with lee side winds over the eastern gulf picking up from light to 10 to 15 kt. Models remain in good agreement with little change to inherited forecast.

LONG TERM

Rather benign weather pattern for the early to mid week forecast with a broad ridge setup aloft over SE AK. Next system moves across the northern gulf Tuesday before taking a sharp turn south before diminishing Tuesday night. An associated frontal band will extend northeastward towards the panhandle, but model to model runs indicate this band will dissipate before hitting the coastline. Further inland, the more notable weather aspect will be a return to cloudier weather Monday night into Tuesday morning.
As the system moves southward, there will be greater chances to see the sun, particularly on the northern part of the panhandle.
Some fog chances overnight Tuesday is certainly possible where winds are slight and skies are clear.

The bigger story is Thursday. While details are still being worked out, the active pattern returns with a robust system out in the Bering Sea helping to direct a plume of moisture towards the panhandle Wednesday night and into Thursday. Accompanying this moisture is a developing system in the northern gulf, bringing increased winds and moderate to heavy rainfall for the panhandle.
Run to run trends seem to indicate that the strength of this system is increasing, so will keep an eye on any developments as the system gets closer in time. What can be said about this system is that there will likely be a barrier jet that forms, bringing near gale to gale conditions along the NE gulf coast and possibly fresh to strong breezes in the inner channels.

AVIATION

Predominate VFR conditions through 00-06z with CIGS AoB 8000ft with underlying FEW to SCT deck around 2000 to 5000ft. Anticipate winds 10kts or less, outside PAGY and PAHN which will see an isolated gust up to 20kts. Main aviation concern through tonight will be FG development across the panhandle under light winds and saturated low levels. Anticipating redevelopment of FG formation across the panhandle by 09z, lingering with VCFG through 18z Sunday. Highest confidence in fog development along and southeast of a line from PASI to PAPG. LLWS is not expected through TAF period.
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