Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mud Bay, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 291338 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 538 AM AKDT Tue Apr 29 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Tuesday night/ SEAK will see a break in between systems today, though scattered precipitation will continue through Tuesday. Winds for a majority of the panhandle will diminish through the day before steadily increasing as the next system moves in Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure is building over the panhandle, tightening the pressure gradient in the northern Lynn Canal region. This increased gradient is expected to bring high wind speeds and gusts potentially reaching 40 mph, prompting a small craft advisory until Tuesday night. The pressure field will relax as the low in the gulf approaches, bringing winds down. Temperatures remain close to normal, with lows slightly warmer and highs slightly lower than usual. The active weather pattern will continue through the week with the next front expected to reach the outer coast of the panhandle Wednesday.

LONG TERM
/Wednesday through Monday/ The first days of May are expected to be rather unsettled in terms of expected weather conditions courtesy of multiple low pressure systems and moist onshore flow from the Gulf. Cool wet weather pattern SE AK weather for the long range. Aloft, a broad upper low is expected to be in place across the Bering for the middle to end of the week, and then pivoting to the Gulf by next weekend and next Monday. While there are short periods of ridging tracking in there are just no foreseeable long or substantial breaks in the next week, and from CPC outlook likely the next two weeks. Low/front moving in early Wednesday with gale force winds developing along the Eastern AK Gulf. Some model differences on position and timing so but some more confidence details for the front position and reaching the NE Gulf / Northern panhandle first. EFI puts more heavy precip into the region with long fetch of moisture from the south. Hydrology concerns with this next batch of heavy rain, especially due to the earlier systems causing some rivers rises and the record and or record rainfall for the month of April. Periods of rain lasts into the weekend as the parent low reaches the Central AK Gulf but rates and overall coverage diminishes. Updated previous forecast with some more detail on front for Wednesday but overall it either remained in line with new model runs or there is still enough spread in operational model that a national blend still covers the gist of the long range.
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