Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 242235 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 235 PM AKDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SHORT TERM. Complex but fairly low impactful weather through the end of the week. Significant changes for the weekend with highly impactful storm system moving in.

The broad mid level low which has been situated over the AK Gulf the past days will finally pull back to the NW through Saturday. At the surface the complex series of low pressure systems that are continually rotating around each other will also pull the the NW. Through that time bands of showers still push over the AK Panhandle from south to north. Very difficult time tracking these bands as no one model or model run has fully captured the situation. Overall the southern areas getting majority of showers and higher rainfall amounts as many bands have some signs of shearing apart once they hit the northern areas. Not counting out breaks in precip and cloud cover, especially later on Saturday, which could result in some fog formation. Some 20 kt winds over the southern inner channels and coastal waters through Saturday but overall winds less than 15 kts. However do anticipate gustier winds near any shower activity.

Main change to the forecast . storm force low/front moves into the AK Gulf Saturday night into Sunday. Latest models runs in better agreement with gulf winds at least 50 kts. Stronger winds are possible. NE Panhandle coast gets first hit of stronger winds along the front with wind gusts over land at 40 mph. Secondary wrap aims next band of high winds at the central panhandle coast. Rain moves in from the SW late Saturday night into Sunday with heaviest rain over the southern panhandle. 12 hour rain totals upwards of 2 inches possible with atmospheric river setting up.

Better agreement between GFS/NAM for the Sunday system. 12z ECMWF fell more in line with other models but has been showing much larger run to run inconsistencies. Due to the better model alignment made the call for such a large change to the forecast. Will likely see higher QPF amounts added once more model runs come in as well as possible higher winds.

LONG TERM. Saturday through Wednesday . As of 10 PM Wed . Period begins with a deepening upper trough over AK pen with SW flow into the panhandle. Models continue to show some spread in strength and position with a low approaching the SE gulf Sun along with heavy rain for the first half of next week. Given the continued spread will need to continue monitoring guidance as this has the potential to push an AR and stronger winds to the gulf coast and S panhandle. Little change in the overall pattern through the period with long wave ridge anchored over W NA. This will maintain the active pattern through the extended with continued chances from precip but normal to above normal temps. Overall forecast confidence remains about average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051.



PRB/BC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HAXA2	5 mi	31 min	E 5.1 G 7	48°F			989.5 hPa	48°F
ERXA2	17 mi	32 min	NNE 6 G 8	48°F			988.1 hPa	48°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK	20 mi	62 min		48°F	49°F		991.6 hPa
SKXA2	20 mi	30 min	NW 2.9 G 2.9	48°F			989.9 hPa	48°F
LIXA2	47 mi	31 min	N 8.9 G 14	49°F			988.8 hPa	47°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	56 mi	78 min	NNE 1 G 4.1	48°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK	8 mi	50 min	E 4	10.00 mi	Light Rain	49°F	46°F	93%	991.6 hPa
Skagway, AK	22 mi	1.9 hrs	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	49°F	48°F	97%	991.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHN

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Pyramid Harbor, Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Skagway, Alaska (2)

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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