Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 221338 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 538 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SHORT TERM. Clear and dry pattern for Southeast Alaska will persist into the weekend. High pressure over Northwest Canada combined with the low pressure and stalled weather front over the western and central gulf, is maintaining the offshore flow out of Canada. Relative humidities across the northern and central panhandle yesterday ranged from the upper teens to lower 30s. With little in way of adding moisture to the area because of the continue offshore flow, we should see similar values again today and expanding further south to the southern panhandle as well.

Seasonable temperatures for the next couple of days. Highs slightly above normal for this time of year, and overnight lows will be near normal or slightly cooler, the larger diurnal range is due to the dry airmass over the region. Clouds will push up to outer coastline Thursday evening while staying offshore over the central and southeastern gulf. Think some higher clouds will spreading to the southern outer coastal waters briefly by early Friday and then moving back offshore.

Minimal changes were made to the previous forecast, may go back in and adjust the overnight lows for some locations based on this mornings temperatures. Forecast confidence is above average.


LONG TERM. /Sat through Thu as of 10 pm Wed/The upper level scenario has not changed all that much from yesterday. A strong upper ridge is still forecast to linger above central Alaska for the first part of the extended before weakening and getting replaced by two upper lows that results in general troughing over Alaska by mid next week. The main changes to this scenario is the upper ridge persisting about a day more into early next week and the upper low from the Canadian arctic not moving as far west as previously depicted. Timing of when the weakening ridge gets replaced by the upper lows continues to shift and currently favors a trend toward later in the week so the forecast past Mon remains at average to low confidence.

For the panhandle, confidence continues to increase that the dry weather will last likely into Mon now with most operational and ensemble mean guidance favoring increasing pops for Tue and beyond. During this dry weather, skies will be mostly clear and temps will be near, to a little above, normal due to persistent offshore flow (some of which may get to 15 to 25 kt Sat into Sun in Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and other areas of the northern inner channels). Little in the way of forecast changes through Sun.

For Mon and beyond, confidence is starting to increase for a front to impact the areas from the south Tue into Wed. Timing is still an issue, but there is enough confidence across operational and ensemble models to start an increase in pops (up to 60 to 70 percent) and winds (up to 25 to 30 kt in the gulf and 15 to 25 kt for the inner channels) for next Wed. There is still the possibility of the timing of this front getting pushed later as we get closer to the event as the forecast upper level pattern change is still evolving so forecast confidence is still around average to low.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . None.



Bezenek/EAL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HAXA2	5 mi	39 min	W 1.9 G 7	36°F			1024.2 hPa	19°F
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK	17 mi	79 min	N 16 G 19	39°F			1026.6 hPa	39°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK	20 mi	61 min		31°F	39°F		1027 hPa
SKXA2	20 mi	36 min	N 1.9 G 2.9	31°F			1025.2 hPa	22°F
LIXA2	47 mi	38 min	N 13 G 18	40°F			1023 hPa	30°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	56 mi	77 min	SE 1.9 G 4.1	34°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK	8 mi	49 min	WNW 16 G 22	7.00 mi	Fair	34°F	19°F	54%	1026.2 hPa
Skagway, AK	22 mi	50 min	NE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	31°F	21°F	67%	1027 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHN

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Tide / Current Tables for Pyramid Harbor, Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Skagway, Alaska (2)

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