Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak67 pajk 232204 afdajk southeast alaska forecast discussion national weather service juneau ak 204 pm akdt Fri aug 23 2019 Short term through Monday night upper trof will move E across the area tonight, followed by another shortwave trof that will move into the northern gulf late tonight and sat. This shortwave trof should move through SE ak Sat night and early sun. Models are in better agreement on an upper shortwave over SW ak that will interact with another shortwave to the s. The northern shortwave will move into the gulf Sun night then across the gulf mon-mon night. The southern shortwave should move across the NE pac sun night and mon, then turn NE toward southern SE ak Mon night. There are some small model differences on the exact timing of both shortwaves, but trend has been to slow the progress of the northern shortwave, which may allow for potential phasing of the streams over the gulf. This will impact how strong a low will get as it moves NE into the eastern gulf Mon and Mon night. For tonight, a weakening low will move across the southern area, while a weakening remnant of the occluded front moves across the northern panhandle. This will keep things wet tonight, especially along the coast mtns. Still some SCA level winds on the SE and w sides of the low center, affecting the SE gulf and southern inner channels. A narrow band of SCA level winds just outside cross sound should weaken early this evening. Large (10+ ft) seas over the gulf will gradually subside from the NW later tonight, but they will be high enough to keep SCA for the areas outside the stronger wind areas through the night. For Sat and Sat night, as next shortwave trof moves into the northern gulf, will see some showers develop over the gulf and move onshore SE ak. It looks like the most showers will be along the coast mtns though with deeper upslope flow. Was thinking about potential for some tstms, but not impressed with the mid-level lapse rates, even though the CAPE might suggest some thunder. The low level convergence looks meager as well. Later shifts will need to monitor to see if better low level convergence develops across the NE gulf, which could be enough for a few tstms despite the mid-level lapse rates.

For sun-sun night, upper ridging will build across the eastern gulf and SE ak well ahead of the shortwaves over the W gulf and ne pac. This will gradually decrease the showers over SE ak during the period. Some precip could begin to move into the s-central gulf later Sun night, as a low develops to the SW of that area in response to the shortwaves moving in. For mon-mon night, this is where the changes were most notable. Confidence is increasing that a low moves into the eastern gulf and a trailing occluded front moves in from the w. Looking like an increasing threat for more significant rain, as an atmospheric river will accompany this system. Looks especially wet for the southern area where highest ivt and pw values will be. Have raised pops up to likely for most of the area during this period, and later shifts will likely raise them further as timing track of the main features gets better. All of the precip over the past several days, and upcoming events, should at least diminish any remaining fire weather issues, and for now, decrease the most adverse drought effects. Long term Tuesday through Friday night ... Upper trough will sweep through SE ak on Tuesday. The pattern aloft remains progressive with another ridge over southeast alaska Friday night into Saturday. The pattern aloft will result in unsettled weather at the surface. After an early week front and associated heavy rain, pop diminishes somewhat but never drops below chance levels until Thursday night and then only for the southern half of the panhandle. Warmer low level air does move in from the south in the second half of the week and daytime highs will creep back up to the high 60s or low 70s by the end of the next work week. Ajk watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz022-041>043-051>053. Rwt fritsch visit us at http:

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HAXA2	5 mi	34 min	SSW 2.9 G 6	52°F			998.8 hPa	44°F
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK	17 mi	72 min	N 4.1 G 6	51°F			997.6 hPa	50°F
ERXA2	17 mi	34 min	N 4.1 G 6	51°F			996.4 hPa	50°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK	20 mi	54 min		51°F	47°F		999.5 hPa
SKXA2	20 mi	33 min	S 6 G 7	51°F			999.4 hPa	45°F
LIXA2	47 mi	34 min	NNW 8.9 G 13	52°F			997.1 hPa	50°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	56 mi	70 min	N 9.9 G 13	52°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK	8 mi	42 min	WNW 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	56°F	48°F	77%	999.6 hPa
Skagway, AK	22 mi	43 min	WSW 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	51°F	48°F	92%	999.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHN

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Pyramid Harbor, Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Skagway, Alaska (2)

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.