Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 291413 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 613 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SHORT TERM. A surface low is currently situated over the Gulf this morning providing light snow showers across the southern panhandle. A surface high is located over NW Canada causing pressure gradients to tighten to the north as the low pushes closer to the coast and cold air advection increase. Today's main focus will be on strong northerly outflow winds and a mnt wave potential for the Juneau area. Added Strong Wind headlines for Skagway, Haines, Pelican Cove, and Juneau where gusts over 40 mph are likely. The strongest winds are expected to occur late tonight through early Monday morning as the pressure gradient will be the strongest during this time frame. Gale force winds in Lynn Canal will increase through the day reaching Storm Force by tonight. Gales are also expected to flow all the way down through Chatham Strait. As the outflow winds increase, Gale force plumes will blow off the coast through interior gap passes along the Gulf Coast.

Conditions look favorable for Taku winds to impact the Juneau/Douglas area. Cross barrier flow is strong and an inversion will be set up over the ridge. A critical level will also set up during this time frame aiding in the likely of a mtn wave. With this, a High Wind Watch is in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon. Winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with gusts up to 60 mph possible. This potential will be monitored as new observations and model guidance arrives.

As the low continues to track SE away from the panhandle and outflow winds blow, conditions will begin to dry out and cool down. By Monday night, winds will be on the decrease and precip chances will have dissipated. Temperatures will have cooled drastically by this point as cold arctic air will have been funneling into the Panhandle during the outflow event. Expect high temps in the mid 20s for the central and northern panhandle and upper 30s for the southern half. This will make way for a pleasant but cold Tuesday.

LONG TERM. /Tuesday through Sunday as of 9 pm/ . The long range portion of the forecast for Southeast Alaska will be dominated by a pair of blocking features. The first is an omega block that is positioned over the west coast of Alaska. The eastern low of the omega block is over the southern Gulf of Alaska. The associated flow The upper level high portion of the omega moves over to the Canadian Arctic waters north of the McKenzie delta. This repositioning of the high heights in omega into a split flow pattern mid to upper level flow over Southwest Alaska still leaves the southeast panhandle out of any direct flow pattern to the end of the week.

As a result there is no significant weather system for the panhandle for the end of the week and headed into the weekend. Overall it looks to be dry forecast from midweek onward.

Computer models struggle with blocking ridges, mainly with respect to timing of the blocking ridge break down or shift in location and how upstream waves will react. This pattern seems to be no different due to the fact model spread is rather large as early as Tuesday evening. Continued to use a blend of GFS/ECMWF for Tuesday with a transition to WPC for rest of the week. Forecast confidence is moderate to high, although with low, expect changes.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for AKZ025. Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ025. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018-019-022. Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ018. MARINE . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012. Storm Warning for PKZ012. Gale Warning for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>033-041>043-051. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ034>036-052-053.



CC/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HAXA2	5 mi	40 min	N 12 G 28	21°F			1010.4 hPa	-7°F
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK	17 mi	78 min	N 34 G 45	23°F			1008.6 hPa	3°F
ERXA2	17 mi	40 min	N 40 G 48	22°F			1003.6 hPa	4°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK	20 mi	60 min		20°F	39°F		1013.2 hPa
SKXA2	20 mi	39 min	NNW 29 G 51	17°F			1013.1 hPa	-3°F
LIXA2	47 mi	40 min	N 35 G 48	25°F			1002.3 hPa	12°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	56 mi	76 min	NE 12 G 15	26°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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SE3 G11

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S6 G11

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N4 G15

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK	8 mi	1.8 hrs	Var 6 G 17	10.00 mi	Fair	22°F	-2°F	33%	1011 hPa
Skagway, AK	22 mi	49 min	NNE 20 G 30	10.00 mi	Overcast and Breezy	20°F	-6°F	31%	1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHN

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Pyramid Harbor, Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Skagway, Alaska (2)

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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