Sunrise 4:30 AM   Sunset 9:17 PM Moonrise 7:47 AM   Moonset 2:13 AM

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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 241 Pm Akdt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory through late tonight - .
Tonight - S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Rain.Tue - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.Tue night - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain in the evening. Wed - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wed night - N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 132244 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 244 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

SHORT TERM
Another system moves through the region tonight, bringing widespread rain and prompting small craft warnings for most of the inner channels. Expecting about an inch or less of snow for White Pass tonight but warm road surface temperatures will limit impacts to the highway. Winds decrease overnight from the south to the north, with northern Lynn Canal holding on to some elevated winds to early Tuesday morning. Minimal concerns for Tuesday but widespread light rain continues into early Wednesday morning.


LONG TERM
The primary feature of the mid range forecast is a weak atmospheric river (AR) Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately for many in the southern panhandle, the main hose of moisture is looking increasingly likely to miss our AOR, and instead mainly impact Haida Gwaii. While there are still indications that places like the western side of PoW Island and Ketchikan may get substantial rainfall, the probabilities of this has gone down based on the run to run ensemble models between yesterday. The higher weighted models, the GEFS and the GEPS, which previously were in lock step run to run, appear to have shifted the bulk of the precipitation southward to match the EPS and ECMWF. In addition, any additional surface lows being generated off of the potent jet streak aloft looks to impact Haida Gwaii. While Ketchikan, Hydaburg, and Craig may see some enhanced northerly winds as a developing system passes south, the overall threat has decreased. Again, while it is possible that heavier rains and winds could impact the southern panhandle, the likelihood is now lower.

Finally, looking late Thursday into Friday, a ridge begins to build aloft with a surface ridge in the outer gulf. From this setup, a short lived drier pattern will extend over the panhandle with some possible break in clouds, particularly for the northern half of the panhandle.

AVIATION
Post-frontal onshore-flow showery regime will continue to provide primarily MVFR CIG and VIS flight conditions with intermittent rises to low-end VFR through the TAF period. Anticipating CIGs to continually drop through the evening and into tonight to around 3000ft or lower with visbys settling between 3-6SM, lowest visbys within heaviest showers. Elevated winds will slowly decrease through tonight and into tomorrow for much of SE AK to around 4-8kts. Widespread precip will become isolated and intermittent by end of TAF period for majority of SE AK TAF sites.

MARINE
This afternoon at 12pm satellite derived wind passes along our coast indicated 25 to 33 knot winds associated with the frontal boundary, with buoys 83 and 84 reporting gusts of 30+ knots. Expect a short period wave group from the south-southeast to dominate coastal conditions tonight before fresh seas relax and our 6 to 8 ft southwest swell continues Tuesday morning.

For the inner channels winds continue to escalate this afternoon as the front moves over the Panhandle, with small craft warnings over most of our inner waters. For most areas, expect 20-30 knot southerly winds, with gusts reaching gale force in isolated problem areas like Grand Island, Skull Island, and Taiya Inlet.
Overall, winds decrease tonight as the low dissipates in the northern Gulf; however, expecting a moderate breeze of 10 to 15 knots to continue from the south Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672.

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