Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The previously advertised strong North Pacific low has pushed into the Bering, causing gusty winds in the Shemya and Adak and Atka areas. Shemya is receiving the strongest winds, with gusts between 60 and 70 mph. The low is pushing a large front into the Eastern Aleutians (Unalaska, Nikolski), the Pribilof Islands, and the Alaska Peninsula region. Some notable changes in the forecast is a warmer air mass associated with the front. This is causing precipitation to become mixed instead of strictly snowfall, meaning that blowing snow potential has decreased. As the front pushes inland by the early afternoon, some areas of blowing snow are possible for the Kuskokwim Delta and especially Nunivak Island, but this will be for a short period and will not be significant. Temperatures will rise above freezing in the Southwest Mainland by the mid afternoon, ending blowing snow potential as precipitation becomes mixed. Snow accumulations in the mainland have also been considerably reduced. Due to these realities, the Winter Storm Warning for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Winter Weather Advisory for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley have been canceled.

The low will slowly move eastward through the weekend, slowly weakening, but allowing for more gusty winds and mixed precipitation in the Bering and Southwest Mainland. The low will dissipate by Monday and winds will decrease in response. Another notable change in this forecast is that temperatures will not drop as much for the Southwest Mainland for early next week. This is because a large low is tracking into the Bering by Monday, which is preventing the Arctic trough up north from dropping as much. A cool down is still expected, but low temperatures will only drop into the 20s and maybe teens in the northern areas of the Kuskokwim Delta.

-JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A shift toward cooler and more unsettled weather is expected across much of Alaska through the upcoming week. A pattern dropping in from the north will bring colder air along with periods of snow showers across the interior and Alaska Range.

Meanwhile, a weakening but still impactful storm over the southern Bering sea will continue to create hazardous marine conditions, including gusty winds and steady precipitation across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska.

By early to mid next week, attention turns to Southcentral and Southeast Alaska as a developing system pulls in a deep surge of moisture. This will likely bring several days of rain and snow, with heavier snow totals possible across the Alaska Range and through higher elevation passes, along with increasing winds.

There is also a strong North Pacific low being monitored. While current projections keep it south of the state, any northward shift toward the Gulf of Alaska could lead to another round of impactful weather late next week.

LM



AVIATION

PANC...Scattered rain and snow showers will taper off later this morning. Ceilings, in particular, will be slow to lift even after the precipitation ends so expect mainly MVFR ceilings with occasional IFR conditions this morning. Ceilings will lift to VFR by this afternoon. Winds will then become the biggest issue late Saturday night as Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will move over the airport in conjunction with an approaching front. However, these southeasterly winds will also keep temperatures above freezing so the precipitation Saturday night into Sunday should be all rain.