Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Haines, AK

SHORT TERM
Winds diminish through Sunday as the weakening low shifts south along the coast. Onshore flow has continued pushing widespread snow showers into the panhandle from the gulf, bringing periods of light to moderate snow with reduced visibility communities across Southeast. Due to the track of this flow scooping down into the southern gulf before lifting into the central and southern panhandle, some of these showers have been warm enough to switch precipitation over to rain briefly. For communities that have experienced this, temperatures may jump up from around freezing to nearly 40 degrees as the shower moves through before quickly dropping back down as it passes. This is allowing for only minimal snow accumulations to develop for much of the panhandle, with locations that do see accumulating snow potentially having it all melt away with the next passing shower.

The main changes made to the forecast was to slightly increase northerly outflow wind speeds through for the northeastern gulf coast inner passes, Taiya Inlet, and Lynn Canal for Monday. These speeds are still just scraping the low end of a Small Craft Advisory and will steadily increase to around 30 mph Tuesday, but the pressure gradient looks to be strong enough for potential gusts to 25 mph Monday. The gradient shifts from a NE to SW orientation to more of a N to S orientation Monday night, which may be less conducive to strong winds through Taiya going into Tuesday. As this outflow begins to take hold through Monday, it is expected to start to force the onshore flow carrying showers more to the south. This will allow for the northern panhandle to mostly clear out by Monday, though this does not rule out the occasional shower that makes it through. Forecasting potential for lingering flurries along the Icy Strait Corridor on Monday as outflow strengthens.

LONG TERM
The main story for the mid to the end of week will continue to be northerly outflow with a chance of snow showers over the central to southern portions of SE AK. The upper level low over the gulf, along with the high pressure over the Bering Sea, will continue to allow for northwesterly flow to bring cold air over the panhandle. This will continue to slowly decrease temperatures as well as keep the precipitation type as snow. The southern panhandle will still see times of rain or a rain/snow mix, but snow will be the most likely precipitation type. With the low lingering over the gulf, snow showers are likely to continue, especially for central and southern SE AK. These showers will continue to be variable allowing the heaviest showers to bring moderate snow with reduced visibilities, and times of slightly increased winds.

Otherwise, winds will continue to become northerly across the inner channels with outflow winds building. Winds across the inner channels will slowly become northerly as the low pressure system moves south. All inner channel winds are anticipated to have northerly winds by Thursday. Strongest outflow winds will remain over Lynn Canal into Point Couverden, Stephens Passage, and Icy Strait with strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) through the weekend. Times of gale force winds (34 to 40 kts) are also possible, most likely occurring Wednesday and Thursday. For land winds, Skagway is likely to see strong winds with a 60 to 70% chance of wind gusts near 40 mph, and around a 20 to 30% chance for gusts near 50 mph, Wednesday.

This pattern looks to continue through the weekend into the start of next week. This means that the next system that pushes into the panhandle will likely bring more snow to the area due to the colder temperatures in place. We will continue to monitor for when the next low pressure system may arrive allowing for this change in pattern.

AVIATION
/Until 00Z Tuesday/...Onshore flow, giving continued decent chances for snow showers continues, making flight conditions bouncy / highly variable with a diminishing trend in the showers from north to south, improving conditions through the Icy Strait Corridor by midday Monday as a northerly outflow wind pattern sets in over the northern panhandle, drying things out & decreasing cloud cover. LLWS values will continue to be on the benign side through the period. SFC winds will become gusty in & near snow showers. SFC winds will also become gusty out of the north on Monday for the northern panhandle / northern Lynn Canal area, including PAGY & PAHN, due to the enhanced north to south pressure gradient that will build-in.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gulf winds have decreased to variable gentle to moderate breezes (7 to 16 kts) in the northern gulf and westerly fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) in the southern gulf. These winds will generally persist into Monday, with the stronger winds in the southern gulf slightly decreasing and shifting south. The westerly onshore flow will continue to push showers into the panhandle through Monday, with those generally shifting south through the day as well. Precipitation over the southern gulf has a chance of falling as rain, while the central and northern gulf is more likely to see snow. Small Craft Advisories along the coastal waters continue overnight due to 11 to 13 ft wave heights in the northern gulf with 13 to 16 ft wave heights in the southern gulf. The outer coastal waters may see up to 20 ft wave heights persist overnight. Through Monday, gulf wave heights will steadily decrease to 7 to 12 ft, with the highest heights still in the southern gulf. Southwesterly 9 to 12 ft swell at a period of about 12 to 13 seconds will steadily decrease to 2 to 6 ft at a period of around 6 to 8 seconds before outflow winds begin to influence the northern gulf and turn the swell to a widespread northeasterly 1 to 2 ft Tuesday. Outflow will bring northeasterly winds up to strong breezes coming out of interior passes along the northeastern gulf coast, with wave heights building to 7 to 10 ft along the strongest winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly winds through the inner channels have largely diminished Sunday, with moderate to fresh gusts lingering in southern Stephens Passage and from Point Couverden up through Lynn Canal. Winds in the northern inner channels and Yakutat Bay are expected to steadily calm down through Sunday evening before developing outflow switches wind directions to be out of the north late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Northerly outflow winds are expected to steadily increase to fresh breezes (17 to 21 kts) through Monday morning, flowing through Taiya Inlet into Lynn Canal, then down Icy Strait and out of Cross Sound. The pressure gradient orientation looks to slightly shift to more of a N/S direction from NE/SW, which will make Taiya less likely to the strongest outflow winds Monday into Tuesday. Glacier Bay also has the possibility of strong gusts coming out of the upper arms, but this also greatly depends on the gradient's orientation. Outflow winds will steadily increase through Tuesday, expected to peak around Wednesday with low-end sustained gales through Lynn and around Point Couverden. 1 to 3 ft wave heights through the channels will increase to 4 to 5 ft in areas of strongest outflow winds through the northern channels.
Channel entrances are currently seeing increased wave heights pushing in from the gulf, but those are expected to decrease out outflow takes hold.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.