Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Haines, AK

SHORT TERM
Key messages:

- Moderate to heavy rain continues tonight into tomorrow for areas across the panhandle as a low moves into the panhandle.
- Winds increase for coastal areas and inner channels to sustained fresh to strong breezes of 15 to 25 kts.
- Another low pressure system enters the gulf and moves toward the panhandle through Sunday.

Details: A front continues to move over the panhandle before the parent low moves into the panhandle tonight. Rain has lightened behind the initial front, but times of moderate to heavy rain continues for some areas. Rain rates will once again increase as the parent low reaches the panhandle this evening. The heaviest rates tonight will fall from Baranof Island to Wrangell and along Stephens passage. Along those areas, rain rates around 0.1 inch per hour are expected to resume. The low bringing this heavy precipitation then moves inland and dissipates Sunday morning. Light to moderate precipitation will then continue for the panhandle afterwards.

Winds along the northern inner channels have slightly decreased late morning into this afternoon. In the southern inner channels, sustained strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts have continued along Clarence Straight. Winds will increase into tonight as the low reaches the panhandle tightening the pressure gradient. Sunday morning, winds along the gulf and southern inner channels will begin to decrease. Whereas, northern inner channels from Stephens Passage to Lynn Canal will continue to see elevated winds through Sunday.
This is due to a strong south to north pressure gradient as a low moves north of the panhandle and a ridge sits to the south.

The next system moves into the gulf Sunday night into Monday.
Although not as strong as the system that is moving through today, rain totals will be around 0.5 to 1 inch for the central panhandle.
Through Sunday into Monday there is a 70% chance of 1 inch of rain or more to fall across the central panhandle.

LONG TERM
Key messages: - Lingering light rain into Tuesday from a quick moving system to start the week.
- Winds on a downward swing across the inner channels Tuesday/Wednesday.
- Ridge builds in the gulf through midweek with drier conditions across the panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Rain to

Details: Continuing from the short term, the path of the fast moving system on Monday will lead to increased winds in the inner channels once more before gradually decreasing. Winds in the gulf will pick up out of the southwest once more reaching up to strong breeze (23 - 27 knots) before gradually dropping to fresh breeze (17 - 21 knots) as a ridge builds over the gulf and flow along the outer coast turns northwesterly.

This surface ridge coupled with an upper level ridge will bring drier weather for Tuesday and Wednesday across the panhandle, along with less cloud cover and warmer daytime highs up to around 70, particularly for the southern panhandle. Model spread reigns supreme for late next week, but as of this discussion, sometime Thursday looks like when we can expect rain and cloud cover to make their presence know again with a potential low forming in the gulf.

AVIATION
/Until 06Z Monday/...As far as CIGs & VISs, primarily flight conditions within the MVFR/IFR range are expected through the period as an impactful weather system moves through. Some areas may dip into LIFR at times under heavier precipitation and lowered cloud CIGs . Winds will be rather gusty through the night tonight for the southern Panhandle up to PAJN with a tightened pressure gradient. Starting late Sunday morning, winds will pick up, becoming gusty for northern Lynn Canal, including PAGY & PAHN, from the same cause as the low moves northeastward into the southern Yukon territory of Canada. This will last through the end of the TAF period. As far as LLWS is concerned, areas from PAJN & southward are anticipated to experience magnitudes up to around 35 kt out of a generally southeasterly to southwesterly direction, centered up at around 2 kft, into Sunday's morning hours.

MARINE
Outside: Winds in the northern gulf continue to SE winds ahead of the front. As the front passes Saturday late afternoon, these winds will shift southwesterly. These winds along the gulf, will overall remain around 15 to 25 kts into tonight. This will bring elevated southwesterly seas of 11 to 13 ft at 9 to 11 seconds for most of the coast, with a strong SW swell that will persist for the next few days. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday morning, to 10 to 15 kts, as the low pressure system moves inland. Another low pressure system then makes it's way across the gulf Sunday night into Monday. This system will once again bring increased winds of 20 kts for primarily southern coastal areas.

Inside: As the front continues to move through the panhandle, from north to south, the strongest winds remain in Clarence Straight.
Along Clarence Straight, sustained southerly winds of 20 to 25 kts developed this morning and have continued into this afternoon. As the front continues to move across the panhandle, and the low moves inland, expect winds along north to south facing channels to increase. The strongest of these winds will be tonight into Sunday from Icy Straight to Stephens passage and northward into Lynn Canal.
Lynn Canal will see the strongest winds with sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts and gusts up to 30 to 35 kts. Wave heights of 3 to 4 ft will be widespread through this system. These winds and waves will diminish Sunday evening through Monday morning.

HYDROLOGY
Rainfall will continue across the area as multiple systems move into the panhandle through the weekend. As of Saturday afternoon, heaviest rainfall rates have decreased across the panhandle for a brief reprieve, with Storm Total Amounts around 0.75 to 1.0 inch across the panhandle since Friday. Through the rest of Saturday evening and into Sunday morning, anticipating rain rates to increase once more across the area as secondary front swings inland, with the heaviest rates will be around Baranof Island eastward towards Wrangell and up along Stephens Passage with rainfall rates up to 0.10 to 0.15 inches likely. Forecast remains on track with rainfall accumulations up to 3" expected through Sunday morning, with locally higher amounts up to 4" at higher elevations and westward facing terrain. Rises of rivers and streams are expected across the central and southern panhandle, but no major flooding is expected at this time. Precipitation rates and coverage will decrease moving into Sunday afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.