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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 259 Pm Akst Wed Nov 29 2023
Tonight..N wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt in the evening, then becoming se late. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
Thu night..SE wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 292333 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 233 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2023

SHORT TERM
A low in the NE gulf coast tonight with a gale force front tracking across the eastern gulf then over the panhandle. A wave develops along the front this evening enhancing the central gulf coast winds and precip. Clear skies over night resulted in below freezing temperatures Wednesday morning with frost and some areas of fog due to radiational cooling. Started to see a slow warm up as the front moves in. Coastal areas and southern areas starting out as rain but as the front moves inland will have snow for the central and northern points. 850 mb temps slowly rise so getting more of a mix then transition to mostly rain. Accumulations should be only and inch, two at most. The exception being Haines and Skagway where snow will near 3 inches with more along the Haines border, thus the Winter Weather Advisory remains in place. For liquid precip, amounts nearing an inch tonight for the southern areas with periods of moderate to heavy rain. Gusts upwards of 40 mph along coastal and southern areas as the front tracks in with a shift to the south.
Dissipating rain and winds as the front moves overland and shears apart into Thursday, before the next low moves into the SW Gulf.
The 12z AM/GFS picked up on the Thursday night pressure pattern a bit better and had good alignment for a time period that has been highly uncertain. Higher confidence on position of the front, PoP, and QPF amounts. But the issue of cooler temps this evening and timing of the warming trend at the surface results in lower confidence on snow totals. do not expect any significant accumulations as 850 mb temps are just not that low, and mid level flow as the front moves in should warm up and mix down.


LONG TERM
In brief: A series of storms will move across the Gulf through the weekend,with a more potent low lifting into the region Monday. As this system lifts north patterns aloft will begin to steer widespread moisture back into the south.

More details: Friday the active pattern continues, with a longwave trough sliding along the western seaboard bringing a series of near-gale surface lows through early Sunday; however, extent of stronger winds and track of the surface lows have decreased confidence given the wide variety of outcomes in cluster analysis. Given this, have placed emphasis in the grand ensemble through Sunday, with updates needed if latest GEFS/EPS guidance starts falling in line with the Canadian ensemble.

While these systems move into our area through the weekend, a more potent closed low across the Aleutian Islands will begin to dig south, as a stout jet upstream enhances upper level divergence, lowering pressure at the surface to severe gale force in the far southwest Gulf Sunday. This closed low aloft continues moving east Monday developing into an open longwave trough, and axis becoming negatively tilted, lifting the mature surface low north into the southern coast. At this time expecting widespread gales in the Gulf and severe gales in Hecate Strait, with these winds potentially reaching into Clarence.

Regarding moisture, IVT ensemble guidance analysis indicates a strong AR-4 atmospheric river moving along the southern periphery of the aforementioned jet, with this plume of moisture impacting the western coast of BC and into Washington and Oregon early Sunday. While the Panhandle misses the most severe impacts, we will see widespread light to moderate precip returning, with rain in the south and some snow in the Haines Skagway areas. Monday winds aloft turn more southerly, increasing the likelihood of steering portions of this atmospheric river into the central and southern Panhandles. At this time IVT magnitude and duration of time indicate a weak event, but will have to watch this threat as guidance gets a better handle on patterns and the resulting steering flow.

AVIATION
/00z TAF Issuance/...Impacts to aviation in SE AK over the next 24 hours will be mainly associated with the next frontal passage.

Clouds and CIG should lower to as rain moves into the area. MVFR CIG category is likely early on with low-end MVFR possible early Thursday morning. While snow is possible for the central panhandle, the surge of slightly warmer air should switch the snow to rain quickly. Northern Lynn Canal is more likely to see rain and snow through the forecast period.

VIS should drop with the rain and snow, but mainly to MVFR conditions. There is some evidence of brief, isolated times of high- end IFR during the overnight into early Thursday.

Overall, winds shouldn't be too out of the ordinary. As the front passes, winds will be gusty. But once the front clears the area, winds will weaken for Thursday.

MARINE
Coastal water winds already at gale force with seas upwards of 20 ft in the NE Gulf from swell around the low. E/W orientated channels at small craft with the incoming front.
Northerly inner channel winds will increase then flip to the south and decrees into Thursday as the pressure gradient reverses and weakens. Another round of gales over the gulf starting Thursday afternoon and evening as the next low tracks towards the southern portion of the gulf.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ319.
Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ323-327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031>036-053-651.

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