Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goodnews Bay, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light snow continues through the weekend across the Interior, with additional accumulations around 1-3" through Sunday. There will be an increase in the chance of snowfall overnight, following by a drying trend beginning tomorrow, with snow showers tapering off thereafter throughout the rest of the weekend.

- Isolated snow chances shift east to along the Alcan Border for Monday as predominantly dry conditions return early next week.

- Cloudy skies continue to stabilize temperatures through the start of the weekend with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens.

- Clearer skies setting up early next week will support temperatures trending colder, as highs drop to the single digits and teens with lows in the single digits above and below zero. Coldest spots reaching the double digits below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers and N/NW winds continue along the West Coast today with light additional accumulations.

- Light snow continues through tonight across southeast portions of the Western Interior with additional accumulations around 1-3".

- E/SE winds increase along the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island Saturday into Saturday night with up to Gale Force winds expected.

- Snow chances steadily increase for St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta late Saturday into Saturday night, shifting north towards the Seward Peninsula for Sunday as the Northwest Coast remains predominantly dry.

- Highs in the teens inland to 20s along the coast and lows in the single digits inland to teens along the coast. Temperatures trend colder starting this weekend with lows below zero possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow continues through the weekend, with additional accumulations up to around 1-3". Highest totals expected along the Arctic Coast and Central/Eastern Brooks Range.

- Isolated snow chances shift northeast for Monday to along the Arctic Coast and Alcan Border as predominantly dry conditions return early next week.

- Highs in the teens and 20s across the North Slope and single digits and teens in the Brooks Range, with lows in single digits and teens to below zero in the Brooks Range. Temperatures trend colder starting this weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
Tonight through Sunday Night.
A weakening low positioned over the Gulf of Alaska has only been providing some light snow over portions of the Interior throughout this afternoon, and a layer of warmer air with relatively warmer temps in the DGZ with lower level saturation has also even allowed for some light drizzle to be mixed in with light flurries in, and around the Fairbanks area. Please see the Winter Weather Advisory, which entails all of details. As another major shortwave trough enters into the eastern Gulf, the associated warm frontal boundary of this will move up over the region by later on this evening and increase the probability of more snowfall to occur overnight over the eastern half of the state as a reinforcement of more moisture is advected up from the south. These snow showers will continue to taper off going into tomorrow and the low continues to pull away from the region.

Simultaneously, there will be a very strong area of low pressure entering the Bering Sea tomorrow, which will allow for the surface pressure gradient to tighten and produce some strong and gusty winds out of the southeast. Due to this, there will be some winds approaching gale force for the St. Lawrence Island, although there will likely only be a few isolated areas of the island actually reaching criteria, and also the duration of this is expected to be relatively short, given how rapid the decay of this wave is expected to be. The timing of this is also going to coincide with high tide to produce some higher waters levels between 1 to 3 feet higher for some of the areas along the coast of the YK Delta, such as Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, and Chevak, which may result in low little to minor issues with some coastal flooding. However, the strongest winds will not coincide with the highest water levels, so significant wave run-up or coastal flooding are not expected.

Going into Sunday, as an area of high pressure begins to strengthen over the Chukchi Sea, it is going to help to draw in much colder air down from the north over the mainland, with notably colder highs.
There will also be clearing out of a lot of clouds with a more drier pattern beginning to establish itself, which will contribute to the colder temperatures. There will likely also be some areas across the Arctic plains dropping below zero. This cooling trend will carry on into the beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 2 and 3... This system in the Bering Sea this weekend will bring elevated water levels above the normal high tide line across the West Coast. The highest water levels will be with the high tide each afternoon from Nunam Iqua south including Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, and Chevak. Winds will be primarily offshore from the southeast, but larger than normal tide cycles due to the nearly full moon and the strength of the storm will bring in elevated water. The strongest winds will not coincide with the highest water levels, so significant wave run-up or coastal flooding are not expected. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for this region to cover these impacts.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...this upcoming Monday through Friday.
The overall cooling and drying trend will continue through the mid part of next week, and the negative PWATs across the majority of the mainland reflect this. Ensembles have continued to agree with the solution bringing back more troughing to the region towards the end of the week, with a slight increase again in the PWATs, with a slightly better chance of seeing some more snow showers, mainly for the southern half of the state as a series of low pressure systems scoot by to the north across the Gulf of Alaska. Conditions look to remain on the colder and drier side for the Northern half of the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ840-843-844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.