Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goodnews Bay, AK

DISCUSSION
Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Much warmer than normal temperatures continue with highs mostly in the 20s before most areas reach the 30s to near 40 on Friday and over the weekend.

- Heavy wet snow begins late tonight and continues through Friday, mainly north and west of Fairbanks. By Friday evening, over a foot of snow is expected at higher terrain along the Dalton Highway between the Yukon River and Atigun Pass.

- Heavy snow is also expected across the south slopes of the Alaska Range from Cantwell to Trims Camp and across the Denali Highway. Snow amounts of 12-20 inches are expected through Sunday morning.

- Ahead of an approaching cold front, southerly gap winds may reach 75 mph through Alaska Range passes Friday and Saturday.

- Southerly winds may gust to 60 mph over Twelvemile and Eagle Summits tonight into Friday.

- A NE to SW oriented cold front stalls across the interior this weekend with heavy snowfall west of the front likely. Confidence is the position of the front is increasing, with it likely setting up just east of Tanana. Light rain is expected to mix with snow along and east of the cold front.

- Behind the cold front, very cold temperatures (possibly the coldest of the winter so far) are expected by the middle to end of next week. Lows may reach the -40 to -50 F range across much of the area with only a weak inversion due to a very cold airmass.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A quick hitting high-impact storm brings strong winds, heavy snow, and heavy low-elevation rain tonight into Friday as it quickly lifts northeast. Southerly gusts over 60 mph are possible, but temperatures near to above 32F should temper blowing snow impacts. Another foot of snow is possible along the Nulato Hills, Seward Peninsula and Kobuk Valley. Numerous warnings and advisories have been issued.

- Water is expected to come up through cracks in the sea ice and make travel over the sea ice very difficult for much of the West Coast through the early part of the weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures return Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Very strong south winds gusting 50 to 60 mph are expected through Brooks Range Passes on Friday and Saturday, with winds likely extending north to Toolik Field Station. Expect significant blowing snow.

- Strong winds and snow will begin to develop over the western north slope and Brooks Range on Friday as a strong low pressure system and tight gradient swiftly moves across the area.
Southwest winds gusting as high as 75 mph are possible Friday evening when blizzard conditions are possible from Point Hope to Utqiagvik.

- These strong winds will extend eastward along the arctic coastline resulting in areas of blowing snow between Utqiagvik as far east as Kaktovik Friday night into early Saturday.

- More seasonable temperatures return to the area Sunday through early next week when a wave of light snow is possible across the eastern North Slope.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...
An extended period of very active winter weather will continue with the next impactful system cranking up tonight. A 986 mb surface low entering the southern Bering See this afternoon is projected to race northeastwards along the west coast of Alaska and strengthen a bit as it does so. This low should be over the open waters of the Arctic off the northwest arctic coastline by late afternoon Saturday. Along and just east of the storms path the pressure gradient will produce a swath of strong southerly winds gusting to around 60 mph. There will also also be a band of moderate to heavy precipitation associated with the path of the storm, much of which should be in the form of snow. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in place to account for the potential of blowing snow and reduced visibilities that are expected. Initial impacts will be across the YK Delta and associated coastline this evening with the system crossing the Seward Peninsula by Friday morning and along the northwest Arctic coastline by Friday afternoon.

As the system approaches and enters the Arctic Ocean, strong winds will cross the Brooks Range Friday afternoon and evening, limiting total snowfall across the Arctic plain, but still managing to produce widespread blowing snow along the Arctic coast where Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are also in place to address this concern.

Further south the Alaska Range will also see a major wind event as winds impact the region with blowing snow and potentially damaging speeds up to 75 mph through the passes. High Wind Warnings accompany this feature Friday into Saturday. At the same time heavy snow will pile up along the southern slopes of the Alaska Range warranting a Winter Weather Advisory there.

Finally, attention will turn to potentially record breaking snowfall across parts of Alaska's interior Friday through the weekend. With a deep upper low extending from eastern Siberia into the western north Pacific and a rather strong upper high stretching into the eastern Gulf of Alaska, the stage is set to tap deep subtropical moisture and allow an usually strong atmospheric river to transport moisture laden air into the interior. At the same time an arctic frontal boundary will develop over the region, stretching from the central North Slope southwards to Bristol Bay by Saturday. Earlier models were at odds as to where this boundary would reside over the weekend, but as of today much better agreement with model placement leads to greater confidence in precipitation type and amounts over the interior.

In general areas west of this mainly stationary frontal boundary will be all snow and experience the heaviest precipitation.
Interior snow totals west of the front could eventually tally between 12 and 24 inches (hence the need for Winter Storm Warnings there). East of the boundary warmer conditons will result in either rain or a rain/snow mix (including Fairbanks). In these areas we have issued an "impact based" Winter Weather Advisory.
Due to the mixed nature of the precipitation snowfall totals will only be a few inches, but still result in considerable impacts, especially to transportation.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...
Heavy precipitation continues into Monday across a large swath of the Interior as well as the Brooks Range as an arctic frontal boundary slowly shifts eastward. As the front moves east Monday most interior precipitation should swap over to all snow. A deep upper level low will swing southeast from northern Russia early next week, bringing a very cold airmass that will persist across the area through next week and into the weekend. The coldest temperatures of the year thus far are certainly possible, with deterministic models consistently hinting at lows in the -40 to -50 F range across the Interior from the middle of next week through next weekend with the coldest temps of this event likely occurring Thursday and Friday. Expect breezy north/northwest winds across the West Coast to create very cold wind chills.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801>803-806-807.
High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-851-852.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831-832.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ826.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-841>845.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ846.
High Wind Warning for AKZ809.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ803.
Gale Warning for PKZ804-805-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-851-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-816-817-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ812-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ813-814-859>861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.