Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skagway, AK

SHORT TERM
The remnants of a low pressure system will move north this evening. Clearing on the backside of the low will foster showery precipitation and scattered clouds across the central and northern regions. Rain will remain generally light, with diminishing chances overnight. Total rainfall through tomorrow morning along the NE Gulf coast will reach under an inch, with around 0.5 inches for the remainder of the northern region.
As rain exits by early tomorrow morning, a break in activity may allow for clearing skies and possible patchy fog. Meanwhile, the southern panhandle will experience the fringes of a shortwave trough moving north and clipping the southeastern corner. This feature will bring light rainfall, primarily isolated to the Misty Fjords and Hyder regions, before quickly exiting to give the south a brief break ahead of the next system.

Conditions become active again tomorrow as an approaching low tracks into the northeastern Gulf. The front is now expected to reach the outer edge of the southern panhandle Saturday afternoon.
It will shift north through the evening while weakening, eventually dissipating near the central panhandle and keeping rain away from the northern region. Rainfall totals over the southern region up to Frederick Sound will likely reach 0.5 to 1.5 inches through early Sunday morning. As the pressure gradient tightens and flow briefly turns northerly on Saturday, winds will pick up in Lynn Canal, potentially reaching advisory criteria in Skagway by the afternoon. Elevated NE winds will also impact outer coastal waters before diminishing quickly Sunday morning.

Maintaining an active pattern, another low enters the central Gulf late Sunday evening, bringing stronger SE winds to most of the outer coast and impacting low-lying communities into early next week. For more details, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM
/Saturday through Tuesday/...Going into Saturday morning, the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward, not fully pushing into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday evening into Saturday night. The timing of this has increased in confidence, however remains somewhat uncertain for more inland parts of the panhandle from Juneau southward on if the precipitation onset will be more in the evening or pushed later into the overnight hours, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push in further than the outer coast. Model agreement is however narrowing in on the timing of this first front pushing east across the panhandle Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with the highest rainfall totals expected along the NE Gulf coastline around Yakutat. Generally expecting around 2 to 3 inches in 24 hours for the Yakutat area Friday night through Saturday night.

The precipitation type expected is still a bit uncertain for the Saturday night period and will depend largely on the location, as some parts of the northern panhandle further inland from the outer Gulf coast may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday night into the overnight hours as the front initially moves in.
With this in place, some locations at sea level in the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before quickly transitioning to rain. Any snow mixing in is low in confidence at this time still, and will not have any expected accumulation at sea level.

This more active pattern will continue into the start of next week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and comparatively warmer weather in the forecast.

AVIATION
/Through 00Z Sunday/...The shortwave in the northern panhandle has mostly shifted north and out of the area, but is still bringing MVFR conditions with gusts up to 40 kts to Yakutat through the afternoon. This should slowly improve overnight, with winds widely decreasing and CIGs opening up. The rest of the northern panhandle is still gusty at this moment, but the only place still seeing 30-40 kts is Skagway. MVFR CIGs AoA 2500 ft and VIS to 5 SM is still expected to continue through the afternoon and linger into the evening for much of the panhandle as showers continue through this time, with another fast moving low south of the panhandle also bringing CIGs around 3000 ft and periods of light rain to the southern and central panhandle into the evening.
Strong LLWS is expected to continue for Yakutat through the afternoon. Conditions are generally expected to improve overnight, with broken skies taking hold for many sites from south to north by the end of the period. Another system moves north into the southern panhandle Saturday afternoon, which will start by bringing in higher clouds and following up by light rain reaching the far southern panhandle by the very end of the period. Gusty winds will also pick up with this next system, but are not expected to be as strong.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The low passing SW of Yakutat this evening will move east and gradually fill/weaken through morning. This will leave us with a broad southwesterly flow 20 kts or so by morning with 15 ft seas mostly a SW-SE swell. We see another low to gale force moving up out of the north Pacific tomorrow bringing another round of 25 to 35 kt sustained winds with higher gusts to the Dixon Entrance region by tomorrow afternoon. We continue with Gale Warnings for the Dixon Offshore zones starting tomorrow and those will possibly spread a bit further east to the southern Panhandle by Saturday night. Looking further out, the main thing to watch the next few days will be a stronger low moving up out of the north Pacific Monday. Most models bring this low down to around 955 mb as it strengthens/deepens over the central Gulf of Alaska Monday into Tuesday. This could mean storm force winds to the central and eastern Gulf of Alaska zones Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned for further update. /Garmon

Inside (Inner Channels): The low moving west of Yakutat tonight will result in a gradual weakening of winds over the northern Panhandle overnight into Saturday, however as the low to the south moving up towards Haida Gwaii tomorrow deepens a bit, and the high over the Yukon strengthens a bit, we will see an increased northerly flow over the northern Panhandle north to south facing waters tomorrow afternoon and evening...and we have Small Craft Advisories for Saturday posted for those zones. To the south, the low moving up near Haida Gwaii on Saturday will result in an increased wind flow over Clarence Strait, hence the Small Craft Advisories there for tomorrow as well. 05/Garmon

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-661.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-033-034-036-053-641>644- 651-652-662>664-671-672.