Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skagway, AK

SHORT TERM
/ Through Friday night / Still no big changes to the short term forecast period. The surface ridge in place across the gulf and the panhandle area. The marine deck remains fairly entrenched across the area with a few breaks in the clouds.
Pockets of light drizzle from he marine cloud layer as the clouds rise in the morning or minor impulses in the flow aloft passes by assisting the process to force out the the very light rain/drizzle. Overall nighttime temperatures a touch warmer than usual due to the cloud cover, while daytime highs will be just a touch cooler, but are still reaching into the 60s, and a localized 70, when they are lucky enough for a sunny break in the afternoon.

LONG TERM
/Friday through Tuesday-written Tuesday/... The ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska looks to begin to break down into the weekend. Overall, the weather pattern still looks fairly benign, but there could be some convective showers forming in British Columbia with easterly flow aloft Saturday.
Right now, instability in the Alaska Panhandle looks quite low, so this should limit chances of this activity approaching Southeast Alaska.

With model discrepancies this far out, there is still uncertainty as to where the best chances for precipitation will set-up. Any precipitation that does form looks to have fairly low accumulations for the area (less than 0.5").

AVIATION
/through 12z Thursday/ Conditions vary across the panhandle this morning as a marine layer lingers from the overnight hours. Coastal communities, as well as PAJN, are sitting at LIFR (400ft)to MVFR (2,000ft) this morning with lowered VIS (4-5 SM) as rain showers move through. Conditions are expected to begin to improve by early morning as sea breezes pick up. Cloud cover is expected to remain mainly in place across the northern panhandle and clear as you move south. PAYA and PASI have the potential to stay MVFR through the period as the marine layer sticks around through the day. All other sites are expected to have prevailing VFR conditions through most of the period. With the high pressure over the gulf, conditions Wednesday night could be very similar as they were overnight tonight. PAGY and PAHN are also expected to be gusty, with winds sustained at 15 to 20kts with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Elsewhere,winds remain around 10kts or less with isolated gusts up to 20kts in the afternoon.

MARINE
Outside: This morning, winds in the gulf are below what was initially forecasted, with a more westerly direction. This stronger westerly component is causing winds to not funnel along the coast as they would from the NW, so the winds in the outer waters were decreased through the day Wednesday. High pressure remains stationed over the gulf, causing winds to be west to north in direction. The most intense funneling from winds is expected to occur in the southern waters, reaching up to 15-20kts NW as the day goes on. This phenomenon could continue through the week, but is not forecasted after Wednesday. Winds are likely to be below 15kts and variable in direction through the end of the week.

Inside: Observations this morning are showing light and variable winds across much of the panhandle as there is no strong driving force in the atmosphere for winds, with the exception of Northern Lynn Canal. Winds in Lynn Canal remained elevated overnight around 16-17kts SE and are expected to continue like this through the day, sitting between 15-20kts SE with gusts up to 25kts. Sea breezes are expected to be the strongest forcing on the winds through the day today with winds having a westerly or northerly component, with the exception of Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay which are expected to have a southerly component. A similar trend is expected again on Thursday and Friday, however, winds in Lynn Canal are only expected to reach 10-15kts SE. Also, on Wednesday and Thursday, winds are expected to be funneled around prominent capes along the coast (15-20 kts from the NW), which will impact channels at ocean entrances.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.