Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Yakutat, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:31AMSunset 4:53PM Saturday January 25, 2020 5:37 PM PST (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 5:10PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ053 Yakutat Bay- 331 Pm Akst Sat Jan 25 2020
.small craft advisory through Sunday...
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft late. Rain and snow.
Sun..S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain and snow in the morning. Rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow late.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain and snow showers.
Mon night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain and snow showers.
Tue..SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Wed..E wind 30 kt becoming se 20 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft.
Thu..E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yakutat CDP, AK
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location: 59.56, -139.61     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 252344 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 244 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

SHORT TERM. Complex and high impact winter weather forecast over the next 24 to 48 hrs. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for all of northern SE Alaska as of this writing. Expect another 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation on top of the 2 to 4 that has already fallen in the Juneau area. Still pretty confident that enough low level mixing will occur this evening to transition the precipitation type to rain for Juneau, Gustavus, and Hoonah.

Further north, its a different story altogether. Strong arctic front noted on GOES 17 imagery and observations is draped from upper Lynn Canal SW into the central Gulf. Several southern stream waves will ride north along this tight baroclinic zone through Sunday. Increasing WAA over the arctic boundary this evening will lead to moderate to heavy snowfall for Haines and Skagway as well as the highways. The northeast Gulf coast will also get into the action by late evening as the arctic boundary begins to shift slightly W. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible with the strength of the isentropic ascent (850-700mb flow of 40 to 60 kts).

As the first frontal wave lifts into the NE Gulf late tonight, the gradient in Lynn Canal will become more southerly, which may allow the surface winds at Haines and Skagway to flip to E and S respectively. At this time, the thinking is that the cold air will hang on longer than models indicate so went with a rain/snow mix or a change to rain near sea level by mid morning Sunday. In spite of this, it still looks as though 10 to 20 inches of new snow will have fallen by mid morning Sunday with the highest amounts likely near Haines and upper Klondike Highway.

For Yakutat, the initial wave will lift NE and be located just to the south of Yakutat Bay by late tonight. This will effectively shift the polar front just to their west briefly late tonight, before it surges back to the east early Sunday. Surface gradient never really allows a full mix out of the lower atmosphere with the low to their south and thus, while rain may mix in briefly late tonight, think for the most part the event will be all snow. Low level 1000-850mb thickness values also support this scenario. Likely will see 4 to 6 inches tonight with the initial surge of WAA. For Sunday, a second low level wave will ride northward along the polar front. This wave looks to track in a favorable position just to the east of Yakutat. Very strong low to mid level frontogenesis along the deep polar boundary, combined with low level convergence from the frontal wave may lead to a period of very heavy snowfall Sunday morning. Thus the Winter Storm Warning for storm totals of 10 to 13 inches through Sunday afternoon.

Further south, periods of moderate rainfall with gusty SE winds will continue through Sunday. Gales are likely over the outside waters with 25kt likely through most of the inner channels by early Sunday. Rain on top of snowpack for some areas will continue to cause slick roads and ponding of water.

After Sunday night, forecast confidence decreases dramatically, especially in regards to a third frontal wave and yet another intrusion of cold air from the Gulf. Thus elected to make very little change to the inherited forecast after Sunday.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday/As of 10 PM Friday/We begin the period Monday with ongoing precipitation occurring regionwide associated with a wave spinning around low pressure in the Gulf. Temperatures though will be in the middle of an upward trend though to start this period with consistent southerly flow into the panhandle. Multiple locations are likely to top out in the 40s several times next week. This will result in p-type issues throughout the week with many in the central to norther panhandle likely to see at the least snow mixing in with rain. Areas to the south most likely stay warm enough that any precip will be rain. However, areas furthest north such as Haines, Skagway and Yakutat will see the best chances at significant snowfall as nighttime temps will still be cold enough to support snow rather than rain. Thus our Monday storm also begins a period where multiple disturbances will continue to impact the region over the long term as the pattern remains very progressive and continued southerly flow will provide enough moisture that no prolonged breaks in precipitation can be easily anticipated.

Model agreement on exact timing and impacts of these various disturbances this far out remains pretty poor, but enough agreement does exist that the conditions around Tuesday night into Wednesday will be the wettest and probably also the windiest. WPC guidance insists that this low will be very tightly wound and storm force winds may be possible particularly in the open Gulf, but also strong winds making their way into the inner channels. Have opted not to bite off on this whole heartedly in the current forecast, but did raise winds in the open water notably to make note that we will be looking at future guidance to determine just how impactful this storm will be. Models are also showing another storm late week, but the discrepancies between solutions at this point are far too great to make any real determination of much or how little this one will do.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-027. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ020>022. Strong Wind from late tonight through Sunday morning for AKZ023. Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ028. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ018-019. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ017. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033>035-052-053.



DEL/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YATA2 - 9453220- Yakutat, AK 7 mi49 min 40°F990.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.