Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newhalen, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 151322 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 522 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

An upper level ridge has shifted east compared to this time yesterday, now over the Gulf and Southcentral. This is keeping much of the region under the influence of zonal flow near the crest of the flat ridge for the time being. Looking upstream, a fast-moving shortwave trough over Southwest is speeding quickly west towards the Alaska Range, with plenty of mid to upper level cloud cover already spilling across the mountains into the Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su regions. A quick round of light snow along a decaying frontal system moving in tandem with the trough has just recently made it past Kodiak Island, but the rest of Southcentral is still staying dry for the moment.

A shift towards a cloudier, wetter and overall more unsettled pattern will take shape over the next few days as a series of shortwave disturbances move northeast from the Pacific and Bering Sea around the ridge in place over the Gulf. The leading shortwave currently over Southwest will move across Southcentral from west to east today. This feature will send a quick round of light precipitation first across the Cook Inlet and Mat-Su Valleys late this morning into the early afternoon, then out towards much of the Copper Basin later in the day. Given the timing, precipitation could start as snow, but will likely mix with rain as temperatures warm into the upper 30s to low 40s during the afternoon hours. The best chance for measurable snowfall will be focused over the mountains, with little to no accumulation expected over valleys closer to sea level through this evening.

From tonight into Thursday morning, the main upper ridge will amplify temporarily and build back into eastern parts of Southcentral and towards the AlCan border as flow begins to shift more out of the southwest with time. The next system will begin to move up past Kodiak Island early Thursday as a front tied to a Bering low moves up into the southwestern Gulf. The spread in timing for this next frontal system as it heads northeast into Southcentral has improved with the latest model guidance, and it now looks like the next round of more widespread rain/snow will arrive in most spots late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A coastal ridge building out ahead of the front will likely support southerly gap winds in the usual spots on Thursday afternoon, including through the Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley and Copper River Valley. Temperatures close to sea level will again be warm enough for a rain/snow mix initially as the next round of precipitation begins, with a transition to mainly snow overnight on Thursday night.

By Friday, the upper portion of the low moving into Southwest will open up into a trough, shifting east and becoming negatively- tilted as it heads into the western parts of the outlook area by Friday evening. This will extend steady precipitation into at least Friday evening, especially where southerly flow ahead of the trough enhances the intensity over south-facing slopes of the Chugach Range, Kenai Mountains and Alaska Range. Accumulating snowfall will be most notable through mountain passes, with around 6 inches of total snowfall possible near Paxson and around 7 inches through Thompson Pass between Thursday morning and Friday afternoon. A generally unsettled, wet and fall-like pattern will likely continue into the upcoming weekend.

-AS
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